College Football

College football odds: 3 reasons to bet on Michigan against Ohio State

Updated Nov. 24, 2021 7:52 p.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Rivalry Week is here! And if you are looking to get a bet down, what better rivalry to hone in on than Ohio State-Michigan?

The Game means a little more this year as the Buckeyes and Wolverines will play for a spot in the Big Ten Championship. But, more importantly, the winner will almost certainly clinch a College Football Playoff berth, while the loser will be left on the outside looking in.

So how should you wager on this powerhouse matchup taking place Saturday on FOX? I have you covered, with three reasons to bet on the maize and blue — with odds via FOX Bet.

No. 2 Ohio State @ No. 5 Michigan (12:00 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX)

1. This number is too rich.

The lookahead line was Ohio State -6 before this past weekend, and now we're at 8.5 just because OSU blasted Michigan State 56-7 in Columbus? That result gets all the attention, but Michigan almost hanging 60 points at Maryland doesn't matter. Got it.

Nothing that happened over the weekend justifies a 2.5-point adjustment. Multiple bookmakers told me they would open OSU -7 no matter what because most bettors would lay 7-points or less regardless. So you're being shaded if you're on Ohio State. And that's the truth.

2. Michigan's defense is exceptional.

The Wolverines rank seventh in the nation in scoring (16.3 ppg), eighth against the pass (178.4 ypg) and 10th in total defense (306.7 ypg).

Mike Macdonald's unit has also been very good in the red zone, an issue for Ohio State this year. The Buckeyes buckled inside the 20 against Oregon, Penn State and Nebraska. And Michigan's D is better than all three.

Home-field advantage has to count for something, too. Over 107,000 roaring fans at the Big House will do their best to make life difficult on freshman quarterback C.J. Stroud. What could go wrong?

3. Recent results don't matter to me.

I've heard soooo many times this week about how Ohio State has dominated the series over the last eight meetings. Sure, the Buckeyes won by 11, 23 and 29 in the previous three meetings. Still, those Michigan naysayers don't bring up the 26-21 final in 2012, the 42-41 shootout in 2013 or the 30-27 double-overtime thriller in 2016.

Not every game has been a blowout, and there are multiple examples of Michigan keeping the game close in the last decade. Telling the whole story is important. I'll take the points.

PICK: Wolverines (+8 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 8 points (or win outright)

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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