College Football

College football odds: 3 reasons to bet on Ohio State against Michigan

Updated Nov. 24, 2021 9:44 p.m. ET

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By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Rivalry Week is here! And if you are looking to get a bet down, what better rivalry to hone in on than Ohio State-Michigan? 

The Game means a little more this year as the Buckeyes and Wolverines will play for a spot in the Big Ten Championship. But, more importantly, the winner will almost certainly clinch a College Football Playoff berth, while the loser will be left on the outside looking in.

So how should you wager on this powerhouse matchup taking place Saturday on FOX? I have you covered, with three reasons to bet on the scarlet and grey — with odds via FOX Bet.

No. 2 Ohio State @ No. 5 Michigan (12:00 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX)

1. Ownage.

Ohio State has won the Big Game eight times in a row, often by double-digits. The closest game in the eight victories came in 2016 when the Buckeyes won by three in overtime. Otherwise, these games have mostly been Ohio State blowout wins.

The reason for the dominance is pretty simple. Ohio State is bigger, stronger, and more importantly, in this matchup, faster. The Buckeyes' offensive skill position players run past Michigan defenders who appear to be running in quicksand every year.

When you have a rivalry that is this one-sided, it often takes an extraordinary effort to keep it close, let alone cover the 8.5-points — which has only happened once under coach Harbaugh.

2. Michigan can't keep up.

There are individual matchups that worry me if I'm Michigan. Ohio State's offense is the best in the country and is peaking at the right time. Yes, the Wolverines' overall defense is outstanding, ranking ninth in points per drive and 11th on third down. But, they rank 117th in average third-down distance and 103rd in stuff rate, which will leave their defense vulnerable in this matchup. Michigan can not allow Ohio State to have short third downs, as the Buckeyes offense ranks first in the country at converting third and medium into first downs.

Michigan's defense is also terrible in goal-to-go situations and goal-line defense, coming into this game ranking 113th when needing a stop inside the three-yard line. It just seems hard to envision Michigan holding Ohio State in the 30s for points, which puts stress on a Michigan offense not built to score in bunches.

3. Ohio State's defense is better than you think.

While Ohio State's offense gets all the praise, its defense has quietly improved since the season's first month. The Buckeyes are up to 14th in efficiency and 17th in points per drive. The team allows 16.5 points per game in Big Ten play, including allowing just seven last weekend to Michigan State.

The Wolverines' offense is very run-centric, with a passing attack they'd rather not use unless it's via the play-action pass. Michigan's passing success rate is only 68th, and while it rushes the ball well at times, the team ranks only 77th in the number of times a rush gains four yards. The Wolverines are below average at gaining first downs before third-down and rank 89th and 94th in third and short/ medium success rate. 

Michigan will try ramming the ball into the teeth of the Ohio State defense to slow down the game's pace, but that has not worked against the Buckeyes because they score too many points.

When Ohio State starts to score points, how is Michigan going to keep up with their offensive style? I just don't see it. I think Ohio State wins The Game by two touchdowns.

PICK: Buckeyes (-8 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 8 points

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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CFB - Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines - 11/27/2021

Geoff Schwartz