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College football odds: Conference championship betting trends to know
It’s that time of year again — the first week of December, also known as college football's conference championship week!
This season’s slate of title games features several newcomers as well as some familiar faces for you to place your bets on. But how have the conference championship games played out historically from a betting perspective?
We're here to help. Before diving into each Power 5 matchup, here is a look at some betting trends to watch out for when looking at P5 conference title games.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING TRENDS
Historically, oddsmakers have done a pretty solid job of setting their lines right down the middle in Power 5 conference championship games. To wit:
Underdogs are 42-41 against the spread (ATS) in P5 conference title games in our database.
Underdogs of 1-3 points are 6-6 ATS and 6-6 straight-up (that is, who won outright) in P5 conference title games.
Underdogs of 4-7 points are 11-9 ATS and 7-13 SU in P5 conference title games.
Double-digit underdogs are 16-17 ATS and 4-29 SU in P5 conference title games.
The over/under in P5 conference title games has seen 36 overs and 36 unders.
So while favorites are 64-19 straight-up in P5 conference title games in our database, there aren't necessarily any other clear trends against the spread or on the over/under across the conference championship games in aggregate. But there are a few trends that jump off the page when we drill down into specific conferences.
For example, the over has hit in 14 of the past 21 SEC title games, and favorites are just 2-8 against the spread and 6-4 SU in the past Big Ten title games.
On the flip side, favorites are 12-7 ATS and 15-4 SU in Big 12 title games, where the under has hit in 12 of the past 15 championship tilts.
With those pieces of data in your back pocket, let's move on to the specific matchups in each of this year's Power 5 conference championship games, in the order they'll be played.
PAC-12 CHAMPIONSHIP: No. 10 Oregon vs. No. 17 Utah (8 p.m. ET Friday, ABC)
It’s not often we get a rematch of a regular-season game in the conference championship, but this year’s Pac-12 title bout will be part two of Utah versus Oregon. The Utes were 3-point favorites just a few weeks ago and dominated the Ducks 38-7 in Rice-Eccles Stadium. In fact, Utah has actually been somewhat of a safe bet when facing Oregon when focusing solely on the spread, as they are 8-6-1 ATS when playing the Ducks since 1995. They’re also 6-9 straight up against Oregon in that span, with three of those wins coming since 2015.
This will also be the second time Utah and Oregon have played in a conference championship, with Oregon winning and covering back in 2019. Utah is actually 0-2 ATS and 0-2 SU in Pac-12 title games all-time, with all three of their appearances coming under Kyle Whittingham.
Rumors of Mario Cristobal’s departure to Miami have also been swirling over the past few weeks, so it will be interesting to see how his team responds. The Miami native has led Oregon to three straight Pac-12 title appearances with wins in the prior two. The Ducks are also 3-1 ATS and 4-0 SU in Pac-12 champ matchups since the game’s inception in 2011.
Similar to the Georgia-Alabama matchup below, Utah-Oregon has seen a lot of points since 2000. In that span, the over has hit in seven of 11 games. Utah has also hit the over in eight of 12 games this season, while Oregon has split at 6-6.
For more on how to bet Oregon-Utah, click here.
BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP: No. 9 Baylor vs. No. 5 Oklahoma State (12 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)
The Big 12 title matchup features a first-timer in Oklahoma State, as Mike Gundy’s squad is looking for a possible long-shot CFP berth with a win over Baylor. The Bears are making their second Big 12 championship appearance, having covered and lost against Oklahoma in 2019. The two schools have met 28 times since 1994, with the Cowboys going 18-7-3 ATS and 20-8 straight-up in those meetings.
The over has has hit in 11 of the last 20 matchups between Baylor and Oklahoma State, but the under has hit in 12 of the past 15 Big 12 championship games. The Cowboys are tied for fifth in FBS in scoring defense, having allowed just 16.4 PPG, while the Bears aren’t far off at 17th in FBS at 19.4 PPG allowed.
SEC CHAMPONSHIP: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 3 Alabama (4 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS)
This could easily be the most influential game of the week from a College Football Playoff perspective. Alabama already has one loss and narrowly escaped in a 4OT win at Auburn this past week, while Georgia continued to show its dominance with a 45-0 victory over rival Georgia Tech.
The Tide enter the matchup as 6-point underdogs, their first time not being favored in a game since 2015 — against none other than Georgia (Alabama, +1, won outright). Nick Saban’s squad hasn’t been an underdog of 6-plus points since his second season in Tuscaloosa in 2008, when the Tide were 10-point underdogs against a Tim-Tebow led Florida team (a game Alabama lost and did not cover). Bama is just 6-6 ATS this season, and also 5-8 ATS in those SEC title games. However they’ve been here before, going 9-4 SU in SEC title matchups since the game was created in 1992.
The Bulldogs are 9-6 ATS but just 5-10 SU versus Alabama since 1985, with two of those matchups coming in the SEC championship. Georgia covered in both outings but went 0-2 SU.
One thing to watch out for is the point total, as the over has hit in eight of the past nine times Georgia and Alabama have played. The over has also hit in 14 of the past 21 SEC title games, as previously mentioned.
For more on how to bet Georgia-Alabama, click here.
BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP: No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 13 Iowa (8 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX)
Michigan has finally made a Big Ten title game after failing to do so the past 10 seasons. After an upset win over Ohio State last week, the Wolverines will take on Iowa, which is making its second appearance in the conference championship. Kirk Ferentz's squad covered but lost against Michigan State in 2015.
The two teams have met 30 times since 1981, with the Wolverines going 12-17-1 ATS and 18-11-1 SU in that span. The under has hit in seven of the past 13 meetings between Michigan and Iowa, but when looking at the Big Ten championship game, the over has hit in six of 10 games. Iowa is currently slated as a 10.5-point underdog and will be the fourth double-digit underdog in the Big Ten title game if the line closes over 10. The previous three such underdogs went 2-1 ATS and 0-3 SU.
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP: No. 15 Pittsburgh vs. No. 16 Wake Forest (8 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)
And finally, we have the ACC title game, with teams not named Clemson, Florida State, or Miami representing each side of the conference. Wake Forest is looking for its second ACC championship after winning and covering versus Georgia Tech in 2006, while Pitt is looking for its first ACC title since failing to cover and losing outright in their lone appearance in 2018.
The two teams have met once all-time, with Pitt winning and covering easily in 2018. The O/U has split at 8-8 in ACC title games, but it’s worth mentioning that Pitt has hit the over in eight of 12 games this season, while Wake Forest has done so in three of its last four contests.
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