College Football

College football odds: How to bet Houston vs. Cincinnati, point spread, more

Updated Dec. 4, 2021 3:09 p.m. ET

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The Cincinnati Bearcats face the Houston Cougars Saturday afternoon in a battle for the American Athletic Conference (AAC) title. The Bearcats, however, are playing for conference supremacy and possibly, a spot in the College Football Playoff (CFP) top four. 

Here's everything you need to know about the college football odds for Saturday's matchup between the Bearcats and the Cougars — the point spread, moneyline, over/under and pick from our betting expert (with all college football odds via FOX Bet). 

No. 21 Houston @ No. 4 Cincinnati  (4 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)

Point spread: Cincinnati -10.5 (Cincinnati favored to win by more than 10.5 points, otherwise Houston covers)
Moneyline: Cincinnati is -400 favorite to win (bet $10 to win $12.50 total); Houston is +320 underdog to win (bet $10 to win $42 total)
Total scoring over/under: 52.5 points scored by both teams combined

This weekend's AAC showdown might be the biggest game in Cincinnati football program's history. With a win, the undefeated Bearcats hope to guarantee their CFP playoff spot and ultimately, compete in the semifinals for a chance at the national championship.

In the CFP era, a non-Power 5 team has never been granted a semifinal berth. As the only other undefeated team in college football besides the Georgia Bulldogs, Cincinnati likes its chances.

And there's a lot to like about Cincy, starting with quarterback Desmond Ridder. With 27 touchdowns and 3,000 passing yards this season, the senior QB has led his team to an undefeated regular season and has gotten the attention of oddsmakers. Currently, Ridder's Heisman odds at FOX Bet are listed at +7500. And though he might be a longshot to go to New York for the awards ceremony, it's very likely his team could defeat 11-1 Houston.

Cincinnati's defense has been a big part of the Bearcats' success. Cornerback Ahmad Gardner, with his 25 solo tackles and three interceptions, made first-team All-AAC with a unanimous vote. UC's stout defense ranks fifth in the country only allowing 16.5 points per game. Only UGA, Clemson, Wisconsin and Oklahoma State are better than the Bearcats in that category.

But Saturday won't be all about Cincinnati, especially if Houston can help it.

The Cougars lost their first game of the season to Texas Tech and since then, they've gone on an 11 game winning streak. While their dark horse odds to win the title are +100000 at FOX Bet, the Cougs could still play spoiler to their opponents Saturday and prevent the Bearcats from making it in.

And an upset is not entirely impossible. UH quarterback Clayton Tune has passed for 3,013 yards and 26 TDs on the season. And their star running back, Alton McCaskill has rushed for 844 yards and 16 TDs. The Cougars can get it done on the ground and in the air.

When it comes to defense, this Houston team has one of the best defenses in program history. In six contests this season, the D gave up either one touchdown or none at all. For the season, the unit gives up an average of 21.6 points per game.

Stats and Trends

Cincinnati leads the AAC averaging 39.6 points per game.

The Bearcats' average of 39.6 points per game is 19.8 more points per game than the Cougars' average allowed. 

Houston's 38.8 points per game are the conference's second highest average.

The Cougars have gone over 53 points in seven of their 12 games this season.

The Bearcats are 7-5 against the spread this season.

What should be your bet for this AAC conference championship weekend? For that, we turn to FOX Sports analyst Jason McIntyre.

FOX Sports betting analyst Jason McIntyre: "After two rocky years in Houston, Dana Holgorsen's Cougars are rolling, and they can give the Bearcats fits behind "Sack Avenue" — a fearsome defensive line that is fourth in the country in sacks (41). 

"One tiny knock on Cincy QB Desmond Ridder (42-5, AAC career leader in total offense) is he holds the ball too long. He's taken 18 sacks this year, and Georgia got him eight times in the bowl loss last year.

"The Bearcats defense is led by potential first-round pick Ahmad Gardner in the secondary. Look for that unit to shut down the Cougars passing game and for Cincinnati to pull away in the second half to finish an undefeated regular season. 

"The total has come down from 55 to 53.5. I have my eye on the first half under, as I see the Bearcats coming out a little skittish with so much on the line against the tough Cougars defense."

PICK: Under 27 first-half points combined at FOX Bet

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Jason McIntyre