College Football

College football odds: National title lines, picks after first Playoff Rankings

Updated Nov. 4, 2021 3:27 p.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The first College Football Playoff rankings of the season tend to incite rage.

When the selection committee released a top four of Georgia, Alabama, Michigan State and Oregon, you could almost hear the collective roars from Ohio and Oklahoma.

All the undefeated Bearcats (8-0) and Sooners (9-0) have done so far is take on every challenger and win, which earned them the sixth and eighth spots respectively in the opening rankings. So as of right now, they’re outside the playoff party looking in, along with Ohio State (fifth in the initial rankings).

(Here are the odds to win the national title for the top 10 favorites after the first College Football Playoff Rankings of 2021.)

2021 COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS (via FOX Bet)

Rather than get all worked up over a system that tends to flush out the pretenders by the time the calendar flips to December, I wanted to get reactions from a professional bettor that wagers on games for a living.

Brad Powers doesn’t shout hot takes from the rooftops. He lets his power ratings and personally-crafted betting lines do the talking.

Within moments of the first rankings going public, Powers took to Twitter with his projected betting lines for the College Football Playoff. His numbers have Georgia as a 17.5-point favorite against Oregon and Alabama laying 18.5 points to Michigan State.

Seems like a lot, right?

"It’s really nothing new," Powers told me from Las Vegas. "We’ve seen nothing but blowouts in the semifinals for the first seven years of the Playoff. Alabama has been a double-digit favorite in most of its games. The largest was last year when the Tide were 18.5-point favorites against Notre Dame.

"It’s not good for the sport to see such separation at the top," Powers added. "If you’re going for the four best teams and you want shorter point spreads and more competitive games, Ohio State and Oklahoma are the easy choices. Even Cincinnati would offer a closer margin than Oregon and Michigan State."

Cincinnati fans have the most valid case for extra anger and disappointment because the team has literally done everything asked of it.

The Bearcats went into Bloomington and drubbed a Hoosiers squad that was ranked 17th in the AP poll before the season. Two weeks later, Cincinnati went into South Bend and beat then-ninth ranked Notre Dame by double digits.

It’s not Cincinnati’s fault that those two teams haven’t lived up to the hype. And while The American is far from the strongest conference in college football, the ‘Cats have simply dominated the competition.

The numbers crowd loves Cincinnati, too. Powers’ numbers have the Bearcats favored on a neutral field over Michigan State and Oregon.

"Oregon at No. 4 was probably the biggest shocker," Powers said. "I did not expect the Ducks to be that high because they haven’t been that impressive outside the Ohio State game. They’ve only covered one other game (versus UCLA), so I was very surprised to see them in the mix. The committee clearly valued that win in Columbus more than anything."

"I was pleased that the committee put Georgia and Alabama No. 1 and 2 because they’re the two best teams by far. I actually thought Michigan State might be No. 2 even though I only have them No. 20 in my power ratings. Unbeaten. Big win over Michigan.

"But Ohio State would be a clear favorite over Michigan State. I’ve got the Buckeyes 15.5 points better on a neutral field. We’ll see a huge point spread when Ohio State hosts Sparty in a couple weeks."

It’s clear that Georgia and Alabama magnetically attract the most respect from sports bettors and bookmakers. Problem is, the betting value has completely been sucked out of the Bulldogs (+100 at FOX Bet). I still don’t hate a wager on Alabama (+275 at FOX Bet) to win the whole enchilada.

"I wouldn’t make a bet at the current odds," Powers said. "But if you’re looking for a flier, I lean to Ohio State (+450 at FOX Bet). The Buckeyes have the best offense in the country in an offensive-driven sport. If there’s one team that can unseat Georgia or Alabama, it’s clearly Ohio State. That’s a situation where you could bet a little to win a lot."

PICK: Alabama to win the national championship (+275 at FOX Bet; bet $10 to win $37.50 total)
PICK: Ohio State to win the national championship (+450 at FOX Bet; bet $10 to win $55 total)

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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