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College football odds: Oddsmaker's early look at win totals including Alabama, Notre Dame
College football betting might not be front of mind for most at the moment, during the dog days of summer. But there are opportunities this time of year, including in a market that’s rising in popularity each season: regular-season win totals.
It’s simple enough: Will a specific team win more or less games than the posted win total? A couple of big-name teams — Alabama and Notre Dame — are attracting notable attention on opposite sides of the ledger.
Kevin Lawler, head of trading for PointsBet USA, discussed activity on those two programs and several more teams in breaking down betting on college football season win totals.
Let's dive in.
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Ride the Tide
The Crimson Tide are perennial College Football Playoff contenders. Ahead of the 2023 season, PointsBet has ‘Bama as the +600 second choice to win the national title, trailing only two-time defending champ Georgia.
So, per usual, 'Bama has a double-digit win total, with an Over/Under of 10.5 victories over the course of its 12-game regular-season schedule. Early bettors are convinced Nick Saban’s troops are due for another big season.
"Alabama has seen some significant action on Over 10.5 wins. The Over initially opened at around +150, but has since moved to +135," Lawler said. "Alabama is always a popular choice for the public, so this should not come as a surprise. Alabama has finished Under 10.5 regular-season wins only three times since Nick Saban took over in 2007."
However, oddsmakers aren’t necessarily sold on ‘Bama reaching 11 wins this season. The Under is still a -180 favorite on that 10.5 win total. Alabama is coming off a 10-2 regular season, one of those three occasions in which Saban failed to reach 11 wins.
"Alabama ranks last in the SEC in returning production, as just nine starters are coming back to Tuscaloosa," Lawler said. "These concerns, compounded with questions about who replaces Bryce Young under center, are responsible for the market favoring the Under."
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A&M Angle
Texas A&M is coming off a disappointing 5-7 regular season, so coach Jimbo Fisher needs to see some progress in 2023, or he could find himself on the hot seat. PointsBet USA has the Aggies’ season win total at 7.5.
"The win total for Texas A&M is another example where the public prefers the Over. The market has steamed a bit on this one, moving from -140 to -200 on the Over," Lawler said. "The Aggies had a down year in 2022, starting the season ranked sixth in the country before losing to Appalachian State in Week 2 and finishing 5-7.
"However, the recent hiring of Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator should spark their struggling offense. Based on talent and returning production toward the top in the SEC, A&M should rebound and be able to get back to eight wins."
That said, if you like the Under, it’s priced at +150, meaning a $100 bet would profit $150 if A&M fails to reach eight wins.
Eager Beavers
Oregon State had a solid 9-3 campaign last season, and PointsBet USA opened the Beavers’ 2023 win total at 8. And there’s already been movement in a positive direction for this Pac-12 outfit.
"Oregon State’s win total has been an interesting one to follow," Lawler said. "After opening at 8, and at -120 for the Over, the odds moved to -150 in only four days. The action on the Over resulted in PointsBet moving from 8 to 8.5 wins, where the Over opened at +120 and has since shifted to +115."
Lawler noted that last season’s effort marked the only time in the last 10 years that Oregon State topped 8.5 wins. But early bettors think it might happen two years in a row.
"Expectations are high again this year, especially with excitement around transfer quarterback, DJ Uiagalelei," Lawler said, alluding to Uiagalelei’s move from Clemson. "Oregon State has a strong offensive line and run game. Should Uiagalelei win the job, he could elevate the Beavers in a competitive Pac-12 Conference."
Down on the Domers
In the 2020 regular season, Notre Dame went 10-1, earning a spot in the College Football Playoff semifinals, where the Fighting Irish lost to Alabama. In 2021, the Irish went 11-1, then edged Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl.
But in 2022, Notre Dame fell back, finishing the regular season with an 8-4 mark before outlasting South Carolina 45-38 in a riveting Gator Bowl.
PointsBet USA expects Notre Dame to mirror last year’s effort, setting the Over/Under on season wins at 8.5.
"One of the more notable Unders for PointsBet is Notre Dame," Lawler said. "Although the Fighting Irish added former Wake Forest signal-caller Sam Hartman as a graduate transfer, the success he found in the ACC may not be matched in the FBS Independent’s schedule. Highlighted by a flight to [Clemson], and visits from the Buckeyes and Trojans, achieving Over 8.5 victories appears difficult.
"In turn, PointsBet has shifted its Under price from -105 to -110 in just over a month."
Over 8.5 is still a slim favorite at -120. But reaching nine wins could prove elusive for the Irish.
"Coach Marcus Freeman will have a challenge exceeding the current line, an expected obstacle when the schedule is ranked among the top 20 hardest in the nation."
All In on the Under
Mississippi State went 8-4 last season, a reasonable finish in the highly competitive SEC. But oddsmakers are expecting regression this season, with the Bulldogs’ season win total set at 6.5.
Early bettors strongly seem to expect regression too. The Under opened as a -145 favorite and is now out to -155.
"That’s prompted by 100 percent of bets being placed on the Under at PointsBet," Lawler said. "Mississippi State currently has the fourth-longest odds of winning the SEC, in large part due to losses on defense. In the past two NFL Drafts, the program has seen the likes of Emmanuel Forbes, Martin Emerson, and Cameron Young all turning pro.
"Last season, the Bulldogs led the SEC in turnovers per game [created], a statistic not expected to be sustained with the defensive departures. Also, stud left tackle Charles Cross was drafted ninth overall in 2022, further illustrating the gap Mississippi State must make up to remain competitive in the elite SEC West."
Hurdles for the Huskies
Washington is considered a potential sleeper play in College Football Playoff odds, with the Huskies +3500 to win the national championship. But early on, bettors aren’t even keen on the Over for Washington’s win total of 9.5, let alone a Pac-12 title or CFB crown.
And that’s even after the Huskies went 10-2 in the 2022 regular season, then beat Texas in the Alamo Bowl.
"The program has had a turbulent ride since coach Chris Petersen left, going from just four wins in 2021 to an impressive 10 in the regular season during Kalen DeBoer’s first expedition in Seattle," Lawler said. "Though UW has the third-shortest odds to win the Pac-12 at +325, reaching double-digit victories again this season may be a challenge. Between home matchups with Oregon and Utah, in addition to a grueling road test vs. USC at the Coliseum, going over the 9.5-win line appears improbable.
"The price on the Under has seen matching movement, adjusting from -150 to -175 within the past five weeks."
If you think the Huskies can again churn out 10 wins, the Over is +130 at PointsBet.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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