College Football

College football odds Week 10: Oregon State to cover, other best bets

Updated Nov. 3, 2022 12:39 p.m. ET

College football Week 10 is upon us, and as we prepare for this weekend's action, I have some thoughts on a few games that I'm excited about.

These bets feature teams from the Pac-12, so teams I know pretty well.

The Oregon Ducks have rebounded nicely since their Week 1 loss to Georgia, and 6-2 Oregon State is holding its own, too.

But what about Utah? Can the Utes hold their own in the wake of a handful of injuries? And can Arizona State make a statement in a Pac-12 After Dark showdown?

Keep reading to find out how you should wager your bucks in these Week 10 Pac-12 matchups (odds via FOX Bet).

No. 8 Oregon at Colorado (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ESPN)

This line is absurdly high. Since 2003, we’ve only seen a Power Five team as a favorite of 30 points or more on the road against another Power Five team 34 times. The favorites have only covered 15 of those 34 times. I would not wager on Oregon to cover the spread in this game. When the Ducks have been ahead by three or more touchdowns this season, they take the starters out of the game and allow the backups to get valuable playing time. When given the chance, Oregon’s second-team offense can’t score, and Oregon’s second-team defense has given up a ton of points. Multiple teams have scored 10 points or more on Oregon in the fourth quarter of blowouts this season.

So you’re welcome to wager on Colorado if you’d like, but I have a better option for you.

The Ducks' offense this season has been excellent. They rank third in overall efficiency and sixth in points per drive. Oregon continues to be the best rushing team in the country, and the offensive line has not allowed a sack this year. The Ducks score the bulk of their offensive points in the second quarter, which makes them an outstanding first-half scoring team. Colorado’s defense ranks 119th overall and 130th in points per drive. When they've played similar defenses — like Arizona's or Stanford's — they’ve scored 28 and 31 points in those first halves. Even last weekend, Oregon scored 21 against Cal's 41st-ranked defense and easily could have scored more. Two drives stalled inside the Cal 14, another stalled on fourth down, and another drive ended with a dropped pass that resulted in a turnover.

I do think it could be reasonable to expect Oregon not to show up in this one since the point spread is so large, and rival Washington comes to town next weekend. However, the Ducks played a poor first quarter against Cal, and I think that will get them fired up to start fast against Colorado.

Oregon might be into the 40s by halftime.

PICK: Oregon first half team total Over 24 points

No. 23 Oregon State at Washington (10:30 p.m. ET Friday, ESPN2)

Oregon State’s team is defined by its defense — something no one expected to say about the bowl-bound Beavers.

Oregon State has a veteran secondary that has routinely shut down opposing teams' passing attacks. USC only scored 17 points against the Beavers, and although Utah scored 42 points and had 361 yards against them, only 199 of those were through the air. The Beavers' defense ranks 31st in overall passing success rate, and they force teams to throw underneath. As a result, they have a 5.7 adjusted air yards number, which is good for 18th in college football.

This secondary will be important because they are playing a high-powered Washington passing attack — ranked seventh in success rate. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has completed 68% of passes for almost 3,000 yards this season, with a 22-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

However, Washington has only played two defenses that ranked in the top 50 (UCLA 46, Cal 41), and its offensive production was hampered in those games. Washington scored 32 points against UCLA, but 14 of those came in garbage time when the Huskies were down 24 points. I fear that Washington’s passing concepts will be too simple against this Beavers defense. The Huskies attempt too many throws outside the numbers, and better defenses like UCLA and Cal were prepared for this.

Off a bye, Oregon State will also be ready.

However, there is some caution. Washington’s struggles this season have occurred on the road, where they have lost two of three. This game is in Seattle at night and there's an expected forecast of rain and wind. The weather benefits the Beavers, but the crowd benefits the Huskies. Oregon State has struggled on the road this season, losing to Utah and needing the game's final plays to beat Fresno State and Stanford.

Nonetheless, I will take the Beavers to cover.

PICK: Oregon State (+4 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright)

Arizona at No. 14 Utah (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, PAC12 Network)

As I write this, the statuses of Utah’s key offensive pieces are in question. Quarterback Cam Rising did not play against Washington State last week. He injured his knee in the Utes' thrilling win over USC, warmed up to play against the Cougars and then pulled himself out. His status is unknown against the Wildcats. The Utes' best offensive weapon, tight end Dalton Kincaid, left the win over the Cougars with a bum shoulder. His status is unknown for Saturday. Utah was down their two main running back contributors — one because of injury and the other was benched. We don't know their statuses for this weekend either.

If Cam Rising does play — with or without Dalton Kincaid — the Over is the play in this game. Arizona ranks 29th in points per drive on offense and 129th on defense. Arizona has a potent passing attack, and Utah has struggled with the passing attacks of UCLA and USC. In losing efforts, Arizona scored 31 against Cal, 39 against Washington and 37 against USC. Utah’s passing defense matches up favorably to Cal and USC. Arizona should have success throwing the ball.

The Wildcats have allowed 49 points three times to Pac-12 opponents and just allowed 45 to USC on Saturday. Utah ranks 11th in the country in points per drive on offense. With Cam Rising, and especially if Dalton Kincaid plays, Utah should score at will against Arizona. I’d play the Over here.

If Cam Rising does not play in this game, which might be a game-time decision, then you have to take the Under. Seems simple enough for the reasons I laid out above. Utah’s offense will attempt to shorten the game by running the ball and playing keep away from the Wildcats offense.

You might need to wait until kickoff or close to it for this wager.

No. 12 UCLA at Arizona State (9:30 p.m. ET Saturday, FS1)

A night game in the desert is a prime recipe for Pac-12 After Dark madness. I want the home team getting points in this type of game.

We know UCLA can score. The Bruins rank seventh in points per drive, and they are led by running back Zach Charbonnet. He has 964 yards on 128 rushes, which is good for a 7.5 yards per carry clip. They are facing an Arizona State rushing defense that is poor and should let the Bruins do whatever they’d like on the ground. If they do happen to get some stops, UCLA’s quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson can help this team score points. I have no concern about UCLA’s ability to score in this game.

The reason I think the Sun Devils keep this game close is their offense. The Devils' offense is far better now that they’ve switched quarterbacks. Trenton Bourguet has played about a game and a half. He made his first start against Colorado last weekend after playing half the game in a win against Washington after starter Emory Jones got injured. Bourguet is completing 73.4% of passes for 10.1 adjusted air yards per attempt. For comparison, Jones was only completing 62.5% for 5.9 yards per attempt.

Arizona State has an outstanding rushing attack with Xazavian Valladay leading the way. UCLA’s defense ranks 105th in rushing success rate, and this is the recipe for Arizona State to keep the game close.

I’ll take the Sun Devils.

PICK: Arizona State (+11 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 11 points (or win outright)

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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