College Football

College football odds Week 11: Bet on Penn State to beat Michigan (and more)

Updated Nov. 10, 2021 6:19 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Week 11 of the college football season is upon us, and after a slate of upsets and shakeups, I'm anticipating another chaotic weekend.

Let's jump into my best bets — odds courtesy of FOX Bet — starting with the sixth-ranked Wolverines at Penn State.

Michigan at Penn State (pk 'em at FOX Bet)

I'm going to take the Nittany Lions in this matchup. Penn State is a different team with a healthy Sean Clifford at quarterback, which we get this weekend.

Clifford missed the second half of the Iowa game and then was hampered against Illinois in their weird overtime loss. He played better against Ohio State and then Maryland last weekend, but there's still some room for improvement.

Penn State's offensive line is hit or miss, concerning if you're trying to move the ball. The Nittany Lions rank 102nd in rushing success rate and will rely solely on Clifford against this stout Michigan defense.

Michigan has one of the best defenses in the country as they limit explosive plays and rank 11th in points per drive and first in sack rate. However, this is the best passing offense Michigan has faced all season.

On the other side, Michigan has a potent rushing attack but will struggle to pass the ball against Penn State's defense. Penn State's defense ranks fourth in limiting explosive plays and eighth in points per drive.

Michigan's offense does most of their damage on the ground, ranking 33rd in rushing success rate vs. only 85th in passing success rate. And as usual, Michigan will attempt to run the ball directly at its opponent. That works when you're ahead in a game, but if Penn State's offense shows life early in the game, Michigan will be forced to air the ball out more. As we all know, that is not what they want to do. Michigan's offense is also particularly bad on third and short and in goal-line situations.

Lastly, Jim Harbaugh is 6-9 against the spread (ATS) on the road against a ranked opponent, whereas James Franklin is 9-6 ATS against ranked teams.

I like the home squad to grab the win here.

PICK: Penn State (pk 'em) to win outright at FOX Bet

Georgia (-20 at FOX Bet) at Tennessee

This game presents another inflated line for Georgia as they continue to dominate their opponents with a defense that's unmatched in the game right now.

The Bulldogs defense ranks first in points per drive, limiting explosive plays and passing success rate. They are monsters and deserve all the credit they are getting. But I'm curious about Tennessee's offense in this matchup.

Tennessee's offense under first-year head coach Josh Heupel goes only one speed. Fast, fast, and fast. The Volunteers are first in the country in adjusted pace, which could tire out a defense like Georgia's. I've seen it first-hand being in a Chip Kelly offense at Oregon.

Tennessee's offense ranks sixth in explosiveness and 16th in points per drive, however, their offensive line is poor in pass blocking situations. But if you're able to tire out the Georgia defense, everything could get easier.

However, my concern with going fast against a defense like Georgia's is the failure rate and how that sets the entire team back. When you play fast and aren't successful, your defense is on the field way too much. Say Georgia goes up 7-0, Tennessee has a three and out that takes 37 seconds, and the Volunteers are back on defense. That would ruin this wager fast. So I'm banking on Tennessee's offense not having many of those types of drives.

I know this is a risky wager. If Tennessee's offense fails, their defense isn't good enough to continually slow down Georgia's rushing attack. The Bulldogs don't feature an explosive rushing attack, but they wear on teams, eventually hitting home runs later in the game. Their passing game plays off the run, as play-action pass is a big part of what they do. Fun fact, Stetson Bennett hasn't attempted more than 21 passes in a game this season.

Overall, I'm wagering on Josh Heupel's offense being able to do what no one has against Georgia, move the rock.

PICK: Tennessee (+20 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 20 points (or win outright)

North Carolina at Pittsburgh (-7 at FOX Bet)

I'll take the home Panthers laying the six points in a matchup of two high-scoring offenses.

The Panthers have a far better defense, and their offense ranks seventh in points per drive, led by quarterback Kenny Pickett.

The Tar Heels are 11th in points per drive and are a tad more well-rounded with their offense. However, their offensive line has issues in pass protection, as they rank 122nd in sack rate and 75th in pressure rate.
UNC can get around this issue by limiting third and long situations.

The deciding factor in this matchup is between the defenses, where Pittsburgh is just that much better. Pittsburgh ranks 24th in defensive success rate, 21st in points per drive and 7th in pressure rate. Meanwhile, North Carolina is 88th in defensive success rate and 109th in points per drive. Add in the fact North Carolina is coming into this game off an upset loss, and this game feels like a Pittsburgh 55-45 win.

You will be sweating this bet until the end, but it will cash.

PICK: Pittsburgh (-7 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7 points

Washington State at Oregon (-14 at FOX Bet)

You know I had to throw in a few Pac-12 nuggets because I know that conference the best.

Washington State is red-hot, coming off a bye and playing in Eugene against the third-ranked Ducks Saturday night.

As a Ducks fan, I'm terrified of this game. It's Pac-12 After Dark, sandwiched between a rivalry game at Washington and Utah the following weekend.

The Ducks are better everywhere on the field against the Cougars but can't be trusted at home. They have yet to cover a home game this season (3-1 ATS on the road) and rarely do as favorites under Mario Cristobal.

I'll take the Ducks to win but the Cougars to cover.

PICK: Washington State (+14 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 14 points (or win outright)

Stanford at Oregon State (-12.5 at FOX Bet)

Stanford is visiting Oregon State, and they are about to get run out of the Corvallis. Stanford will be without quarterback Tanner McKee. Their offense, which already struggles, can not move the ball with Jack West under center.

Yes, the Beavers' defense is a hot mess, and they just fired their defensive coordinator, but I don't think it will matter much here.

Oregon State will run the ball for 400 yards, as they rank first in the country in rushing success rate. On the flip side, Stanford's defense comes in ranked 127th in rushing success rate. The Cardinal just allowed three different Utah running backs to rush for 100 yards last Friday night. Look for more of the same this weekend.

It will be cold and miserable in Reser Stadium, and Stanford will get run out of the stadium.

PICK: Oregon State (-12.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 12.5 points

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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