College Football

College football odds Week 3: Underdog Michigan State will bark, best bets

Updated Sep. 14, 2022 8:07 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

What's better than jumping into the official third week of the college football season? I'll tell you what. It's finding some games to wager on that could win us all some cash.

In Week 3, I've got my eyes on the Pac-12. We've seen some pretty promising things come out of Pac-12 squads over the last few weeks. I'm excited about USC's return to relevance, and I'm also happy that Oregon rebounded with an emphatic win in Week 2.

So with a focus on the Pac-12, let's dive into my best college football bets for Week 3 (all odds via FOX Bet).

No. 12 BYU @ No. 25 Oregon (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX)

This primetime, non-conference matchup in Eugene will be a rock fight between two teams that pride themselves on their physical play.

Oregon bounced back against Eastern Washington after being embarrassed by Georgia. BYU smoked South Florida in Week 1 and then had an impressive overtime win against Baylor in Provo last weekend.

However, I’m taking the under in this game, and I’ll explain why.

Right now, Oregon does not trust quarterback Bo Nix. It’s clear by watching the game-plan design and the Ducks' lack of faith with him on third down. They would prefer to run the ball and avoid situations where Nix needs to be their offense, even though their skill position players are far more talented than the BYU secondary pieces. On paper, Oregon should move the ball through the air, but that is not what they want to be right now.

BYU has a quarterback they trust in returning, Jaren Hall. He’s off to a fast start in 2022, with 522 yards in the Cougars' first two games. They are relying on him to produce more offense than last season. In 2021, Hall only made 296 pass attempts and rushed for more than 300 yards for the Cougars.

For this weekend, we have to consider this. BYU's leading receivers are injured, and their statuses for this contest are currently unknown. This means that the impressive start from Cougar running back Christopher Brooks, averaging 6.4 yards per attempt, should be a focal point of BYU's run-heavy game plan against the Ducks.

Oregon’s defense would prefer teams to run into their two heavy hitters at linebacker. If BYU does attempt to throw the ball, Oregon has a lockdown corner in Christian Gonzalez. Oregon’s head coach Dan Lanning took more interest in the defense last week, so I believe the performance against Georgia is in the rearview mirror.

I do not foresee tons of points in this game. Two run-heavy teams with good front sevens. One team doesn’t trust its quarterback, and the other is without its top receiving targets.

Both teams scores will be in the 20s.

PICK: Under 57 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Fresno State @ No. 7 USC (10:30 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX)

USC is exactly the team I expected them to be. They are a dynamic group, especially in the first half of games. Quarterback Caleb Williams has completed 79.6% of his passes for 590 yards. Transfer receiver Jordan Addison has 12 receptions for 226 yards, and fellow receiver Mario Williams, a former Oklahoma player, has added 117 yards through the air. This is everything you would expect from this offense.

On defense, USC has forced turnovers to mask the smell of the stinky defensive unit that the Trojans have put on the field. USC has forced eight turnovers in the 22 opponent drives they’ve defended. That is not a pace they can sustain throughout the season, and it should concern USC fans.

They are 119th in rushing success rate, 88th in overall success rate, 109th in yards per possession and 76th in points per scoring opportunity (which includes the eight times a drive has ended in a turnover). USC’s poor defense is nothing unexpected, though, so while this appears bad — and it is — I can square with it.

Fresno State does not have the talent to match USC, but they always play the Trojans well. This is their Super Bowl. At some point, every kid playing this game hoped that USC would have recruited them. The Bulldogs are coached by Jeff Tedford. He struggled to beat USC while at Cal but always seemed to be knocking on the door of success. Fresno’s quarterback is savvy veteran Jake Haener. He led the Bulldogs into the Rose Bowl for an upset of UCLA last season. Haener has thrown for nearly 800 yards in the first two Bulldog games. Fresno’s defense is going to struggle to stop USC, so I’ll be counting on the offense to help keep pace.

The thing that concerns me the most about Fresno to cover this game is Tedford’s conservativeness in big moments of games. He can not do the "right" thing. He must stay aggressive.

Fresno covers this game.

PICK: Fresno State (+13 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 13 points (or win outright)

No. 11 Michigan State @ Washington (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)

I’m going with the Spartans getting over a field goal worth of points against the Huskies.

I know what Michigan State is. They are going to pound the rock with Jalen Berger and Jarek Broussard. They have 58 carries and 362 yards through two weeks. Now, Michigan State has played a directional Michigan school and Akron, so they should rush the ball well. But we saw last season this is their identity.

On the other hand, is a Washington defense that struggled to stop the run last season. After playing Kent State and Portland State, it’s hard to see if any upgrade in 2022 will come from that run defense. Also of note, Washington has struggled as a whole to rush the passer in their first two games. Only 10 pressures and Bralen Trice accounts for half of those.

Washington Huskies fans are delighted to see the return of a downfield pass to this offense. Under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer, the Washington passing attack is humming through two weekends. Indiana transfer Michael Penix Jr. has completed 69.7% of his 66 passing attempts for 682 yards and six touchdowns.

Now Washington is facing a Michigan State passing defense that was suspect last season so they can move the ball. My concern for the Huskies' passing attack is Michigan State’s ability to win with its front seven. After two weeks of the season, they rank first in defensive havoc rate with 22 pressures in the first two games. Washington’s offensive line had a rough 2021, and it’s difficult to judge the team's improvement after two games against teams who didn’t belong on the field with them.

So I expect some tough resistance from the Spartan defense this weekend.

I’m almost always going to back a team in the trenches that are getting points. Especially when we know who they are as a squad.

So I’ll back the Spartans.

PICK: Michigan State (+3.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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