College Football

College football odds Week 5: Why you should bet on Cincinnati against Notre Dame, and more

Published Sep. 30, 2021 11:51 a.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

We're a month into the college football season and three of the four games highlighted in this space feature teams going on the road for the first time: Michigan, Arkansas, and Mississippi.

It's wise to schedule cupcakes at home early to build confidence. A soft early schedule is why all three road teams have something in common this season – they're undefeated and ranked.

But, now all three schools will go into very hostile environments on Saturday: boisterous Camp Randall Stadium, between the hedges in Athens, and Tuscaloosa, where Nick Saban is 56-2 over his last 58 home games.

I'm going to try and help you avoid the land mines on this week's slate. Let's jump into my best CFB bets for the weekend, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

NO. 14 MICHIGAN at WISCONSIN (-2 at FOX Bet)

Last week, I lost with Michigan after the Wolverines stopped playing with a 20-3 lead against Rutgers and didn't cover. On the other hand, I faded Wisconsin, which was profitable, as it got crushed by Notre Dame.

The Badgers opened as 4-point favorites in this one, but all the money has come in on Michigan given Wisconsin's QB issues. Starter Graham Mertz has been awful, with just one TD and six interceptions. Last week, he was benched after a pick-six and replaced by junior Chase Wolf … who came in and promptly threw another pick-six.

This game will be ugly and low-scoring, as neither team appears to trust its QB and both want to run the ball. Michigan has three 300+ rushing yards games this season but only had 112 when it faced a firm Rutgers run D last week.

Wisconsin is also stout against the run, ranking first in the country in rush defense, allowing just 1.01 yards per carry while surrendering only one TD.

The Wolverines won't want QB Cade McNamara to drop back to pass, especially not in his first road season, which is why I don't see them putting up big points in this contest.

It's tempting to jump on Michigan in this situation, but following the crowd never got me anywhere.

The Badgers have owned Michigan at home, not losing at Camp Randall since 2001. Throw all the cliches at this one – kitchen sink effort from Wisconsin, a desperate team at home trying to salvage its season – and the result will be a stunning victory after hitting rock bottom last week.

PICK: Wisconsin (-2 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2 points

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NO. 8 ARKANSAS at NO. 2 GEORGIA (Total: 48 at FOX Bet)

What has Georgia done to warrant being nearly three-touchdown favorites at home against undefeated Arkansas?

The Razorbacks crushed a very good Texas team by 19 (six-point underdogs!) and then toppled Texas A&M by 10 (4.5 point underdogs!).

This game will be only the second career road start for sophomore QB KJ Jefferson (three TD passes last year in a loss at Missouri). But Jefferson has four TDs of 45+ yards this year and he's got a crafty OC in Kendal Briles. And they'll need to win through the air because nobody has run on the Georgia defense (2.3 yards per carry, fifth in the country; zero rushing touchdowns allowed).

The problem for Georgia is its offense. I can't get worked up about hanging 40+ on UAB, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt. The 10-3 win over Clemson has lost luster as the Tigers have looked even worse since.

Has Georgia OC Todd Monken been saving the "good plays" for this one?

In my way-too-early 2022 NFL Mock Draft, I had JT Daniels going No. 1 overall. He's been up-and-down this season but doesn't have the cadre of weapons that the Razorbacks do. Maybe this is the game he shows he's an elite pro prospect.

Georgia won handily in Arkansas last season, 37-10. This situation will be a spot the Razorbacks struggle to score and the Bulldogs' impregnable defense rules.

PICK: Under 48 combined points by both teams at FOX Bet

NO. 7 CINCINNATI (-2 at FOX Bet) at NO. 9 NOTRE DAME

The Irish were 1.5 point favorites but quickly moved to underdogs as big money hasn't stopped coming in on the undefeated Bearcats.

Notre Dame is once again in a brutal spot: facing an opponent coming off a bye. That was the case with Wisconsin last week and it'll be the case next week against Virginia Tech.

The public will see an undefeated Irish team getting points at home and think they're getting value. But, by Saturday afternoon, those same bettors will walk away in awe of Ahmad Gardner and Myjai Sanders, who will give the rebuilt Notre Dame offensive line real problems.

All the buzz is about Notre Dame's defensive unit, with 11 takeaways (fourth in the country) under new DC Marcus Freeman. He spent the last four years in Cincinnati, so there's a ton of familiarity on both sides. But the Bearcats are the better unit – albeit against weaker competition – permitting just 4.15 yards per play (10th in the country).

The Fighting Irish haven't made it clear who will be under center. Jack Coan, the starter, suffered an ankle injury against the Badgers, and then backup Drew Pyne didn't flinch against a solid secondary (6-of-8, 81 yards, TD). The team has a huge decision to make with this massive game on deck.

Notre Dame has had a fantastic run to 4-0, playing arguably the most challenging schedule in the country. And the Irish have won 26 straight games at home. But the run ends at home this Saturday against Cincinnati, which will have the better QB and is healthier in the trenches.

PICK: Bearcats (-2 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2 points

NO. 12 OLE MISS (+14.5, 79.5 at FOX Bet) at NO. 1 ALABAMA

Lane Kiffin brings the highest-scoring offense (52.7 ppg) in college football to Tuscaloosa and it's tough not to like the Rebels as big underdogs.

With a bye week to cook up creativity, expect to see some flashy new stuff from Heisman favorite Matt Corral and the Ole Miss attack, which hung 48 on Alabama last year in a 15-point loss. That game last season was sandwiched between the Tide hosting Texas A&M and Georgia, two top 15 opponents. Unfortunately for the Rebels, they won't be sneaking up on the Crimson Tide this year.

The astronomical total (opened at 77, now up to 79.5) has taken one-way over traffic all week. That's probably the safest bet because you know Nick Saban is on upset alert, given all the love on social media for the 2-0-1 ATS Rebels.

Alabama has won 18 straight. Next week, the Tide will have their most challenging game of the year, in College Station against 3-1 Texas A&M, which lost last week.

Taking all of that into account, I'll take the points in this track meet.

PICK: Over 79.5 combined points by both teams at FOX Bet
PICK: Ole Miss (+14.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 14.5 points (or win outright)

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Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can follow him on Twitter at @jasonrmcintyre.