College Football

College football odds Week 6: Bet on Oklahoma to roll Texas in the Red River Showdown, and more

Updated Oct. 7, 2021 9:43 p.m. ET

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By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Coming off last week’s incredible slate of games, in which two Top-10 teams lost and Notre Dame fell out of the College Football Playoff picture, this week feels like a boring dessert tray that doesn’t get you excited. But isn’t that when the chaos usually erupts? 

Let’s break down my best bets for Saturday's college football slate, with odds via FOX Bet.

OKLAHOMA (-3.5 at FOX Bet) vs. TEXAS

What to make of Oklahoma? Despite being one of the favorites to reach the College Football Playoff, the Sooners are 0-4 ATS vs. FBS teams. It’s impossible to be impressed by Oklahoma after narrow wins over Tulane and Kansas State, and now the Sooners meet rival Texas in the Red River Showdown. Oklahoma has won the last three and five of six. 

As good as Texas RB Bijan Robinson has been – second in the country with 130.4 rushing yards per game – the Longhorns may not have the offense to keep up with Spencer Rattler,  assuming the Lincoln Riley offense ever gets it together. 

This number has come down from five to as low as three, but expect it to bounce back up come Saturday. 

PICK: Oklahoma (-3.5 at FOX Bet) to win by four points or more

ARKANSAS at OLE MISS (-6 at FOX Bet)

These teams are coming off tough SEC losses in which they were both dominated by elite opponents. 

Arkansas was just sloppy in getting blanked 37-0 by Georgia. They only had nine first downs and 13 penalties, and just one explosive play. The scary part is they permitted the Bulldogs to rush for 273 yards.

Ole Miss hurt itself by failing on fourth down three times in five chances, setting up Alabama with multiple short fields, which led to instant TDs.

Arkansas has the No. 2 pass defense in the country (4.9 yards per attempt, just 129.8 yards per game), but it hasn’t faced a QB this season like Heisman contender Matt Corral. But, last year against the Razorbacks, Corrall tossed six interceptions, including a fourth-quarter pick-six in a one-score game. 

Lane Kiffin’s Rebels were down 20-0 at the half last year at Arkansas. Look for them to get payback at home.

PICK: Ole Miss (-6 at FOX Bet) to win by more than six points

GEORGIA (-15 at FOX Bet) at AUBURN

The Bulldogs took down a Top-10 opponent last week in Arkansas and did so with their backup QB throwing for just 72 yards. Now Georgia goes on the road against a sloppy Auburn team that needed magic late last week from beleaguered QB Bo Nix to beat a bad LSU team.

It’s still unclear if JT Daniels will return from injury to start for Georgia, but even without him, we’re talking about a defense that hasn’t given up a point over its last 26 drives. Auburn did face a Top-10 defensive unit (Penn State, 4.33 yards per play allowed) and fared surprisingly well, led by Tank Bigsby’s 102 yards on the ground.

Georgia has won four straight in this series, and I can’t find one Auburn advantage other than playing at home. The Tigers' special teams were a nightmare last week (missed field goal, field goal blocked), and you absolutely can’t have that happen and expect to beat the Bulldogs.

If Daniels starts for Georgia, this number may top 17.

PICK: Georgia (-15 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 15 points

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PENN STATE at IOWA (-2 at FOX Bet)

Iowa is one of the most perplexing teams in the country. The Hawkeyes feature a fearsome defense (fourth in yards per play, 4.12) that has forced 16 turnovers (first in college football) led by ball-hawking DB Riley Moss (three interceptions) and freshman edge rusher Lukas Van Ness (four sacks, 4.5 yards per play). 

The problem is the offense, which ranks 117th in yards per game and 110th in yards per play. We haven’t seen how Iowa will respond if it is trailing in the second half – they can thank the defense for that. 

Penn State’s strength of schedule looks better than it is, as Wisconsin and Indiana have been extremely poor this season. Both teams are 4-1 ATS, but it feels like the market is disrespecting the Hawkeyes by not favoring them by a field goal at home.

If Penn State QB Sean Clifford makes any mistakes, Iowa could run away with this. 

PICK: Iowa (-2 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2 points

ALABAMA at TEXAS A&M (+18 at FOX Bet)

Remember three weeks ago when Texas A&M was 3-0 and hurtling toward a showdown with the Crimson Tide? Much has changed for them.

Jimbo Fisher’s Aggies have cratered, looking anemic in a home loss to Arkansas and struggling against Mississippi State in another defeat at College Station. 

Consider this: Mississippi State rang up 27 first downs and 438 yards of total offense against what was supposed to be a top-flight A&M defense featuring at least two potential first-round draft picks. 

What are Bryce Young and John Metchie going to do? 

While there is no CFP hope for Texas A&M, the pressure is off for this particular game. This means expectations are suddenly low for a game circled as a big showdown in the preseason. 

From a situational spot perspective, things line up for the Aggies to make this interesting Saturday night in what should be a rowdy College Station atmosphere. 

Also, the Tide is down two more key contributors, including RB Jase McClellan, who is second on the team in TDs (five). Alabama jumped to a big lead in its only other road test and held on in a non-cover against Florida. I see it playing out similarly here. 

PICK: Texas A&M (+18) to lose by fewer than 18 points; or win outright

Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can follow him on Twitter at @jasonrmcintyre.

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