College Football

College football odds Week 7: Notre Dame to cover, other best bets

Updated Oct. 14, 2022 9:49 a.m. ET

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By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Lucky Week 7 of college football is here. I bet you there are a handful of squads crossing their fingers that this week is indeed the week that things turn around for the better.

I'm looking at you, Oklahoma.

I'm also looking at a variety of best bets for the weekend ahead. I like Iowa State to hold its own, and there's something about the Irish that finally feels right.

Keep reading for my Week 7 wagers that will hopefully win us all some cash (odds via FOX Bet).

Iowa State at No. 22 Texas (12 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)

An opportunity to fade the Texas Longhorns after an emotional win over Oklahoma? Yes, please. 

Texas not only beat its hated rival last weekend, but it also embarrassed Oklahoma 49-0. It’s easily the biggest win in Steve Sarkisian’s year and a half in Austin. It’s a sign that Texas is now officially back, which is why I need to officially wager against the Longhorns in the first half of this game. 

Iowa State is not a particularly fun or profitable team to wager on. The Cyclones are winless in three conference contests and have failed to cover in any of those losses. Iowa State has a painful offense to watch. The Cyclones are 83rd in success rate, 122nd in explosive play rate and 85th in points per drive. They’ve scored progressively fewer points by the week, starting with 24 points against Baylor and ending with just nine against Kansas State. 

However, this Longhorn defense cannot get off the field on third downs. That unit ranks 77th in third-down defense. More specifically, they are 92nd in third and medium success rate. The Cyclones struggle to score points, but they can convert on third down, entering this game ranked 48th in that category. If they can convert early in this game while Texas is still sleepwalking after the Oklahoma win, they can sneak across points early to keep this one close. 

Texas has a potent offense, especially with quarterback Quinn Ewers back under center. However, Iowa State’s defense is ready for this matchup. The Cyclones defense ranks eighth in explosive play rate and 15th on third down. They are near the top of the sport at stopping the run. This will be important against a Texas offense geared toward chewing up yards on the ground. 

I’m taking the Cyclones to just cover the first half because, in the end, they are well below Texas' talent level. Once Texas wakes up from the Oklahoma hangover, the Longhorns will dominate Iowa State.  

PICK: Iowa State +8.5 1st half

Stanford at Notre Dame (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, NBC)

Yes, it’s a big number, and the Irish appear to be "down" right now, but they are playing much better lately, and Stanford stinks.

Notre Dame started slow, especially on offense, with losses to Ohio State and Marshall to start the season. Since then, the Irish have won three in a row, with increased offensive production along the way.

Backup quarterback Drew Pyne, the new starting quarterback after the Irish starting QB got injured, has won all three of his starts. He’s completing 74% of passes for 8.2 yards per pass and eight passing touchdowns. It's no surprise that the production from their skill position players has picked up over this winning streak. Notre Dame's offensive line — normally one of the best in the country — mirrored the slow offensive start. The Irish have picked up their blocking the last three weeks, rushing for 668 yards during this win streak. Now the Irish get a Stanford defense that is horrendous. 

Stanford ranks 111th in defensive points per drive, 127th in rushing success and 82nd against the pass. The Cardinal are 115th in havoc rate and generate almost no pressure or force turnovers. It will be a rough day for the Cardinal stopping the Irish offense.  

Stanford’s offense has shown some ability to move the ball. The Cardinal rank 53rd in points per drive and are very good at scoring points once they enter the red zone. The offensive line gives Tanner McKee enough time to throw, though most of that is because of the team's slow mesh offense. When the offense is behind schedule, the Cardinal do allow loads of pressure, as we saw with eight sacks allowed against the Washington Huskies.

Notre Dame’s defense is 25th in points per drive, and the squad has improved over the season against the run. The Irish are able to generate a bunch of pressure with their front four and have a higher-than-average pressure rate. 

I’m going to lay the big number with an improving Irish squad against a Stanford team that has not beaten an FBS opponent since early October 2022.  

PICK: Notre Dame (-17 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 17 points

No. 7 USC at No. 20 Utah (8 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX)

I have been waiting months to wager on this game. Give me the Utes.

Utah is better. Utah does not lose at home. Utah will bounce back from the embarrassing performance against UCLA. Utah will rush the ball well against a poor USC rushing defense that allowed Washington State — a team that ranks last in rushing yards in the Pac-12 entering last weekend — to rush for 171 yards on Saturday night in the Coliseum. 

The Utes defense is not what it has been in the past, but USC’s passing offense has taken a few steps back the last three weekends. Through three weeks, USC’s Caleb Williams was completing 74.4% of passes with nearly 900 yards passing. In the last three weekends, Williams has completed 56.9% of passes for only 716 yards. Defenses have given up large chunk plays on the ground to the USC rushing attack because they know allowing explosive pass plays is the quickest way to lose against them. They also know Lincoln Riley doesn’t have the patience to continue to run the football. USC’s OL has also taken massive steps back. That unit ranked 47th in pressure rate the first three weeks. Now, that ranking has dropped to 80th. Utah’s defense will be all over Williams.

But more than anything else, the Trojans' "luck" is ending in Utah. USC is plus-14 in turnover margin, far better than anyone in college football. SC has recovered every fumble this season, whether from its own players or the opponent. That will not happen on the road in Utah. It’s a humbling place to play, and USC struggled with the atmosphere at Oregon State with half of the stadium under construction. 

Also, in Saturday’s win against Washington State, USC’s offense had multiple third-and-long attempts that ended in questionable Cougar defensive penalties that ultimately gave USC a few first downs. Those drives ended with USC points. Teams do not get those calls in Utah. So give me the Utes.

PICK: Utah (-184 moneyline at FOX Bet) to win outright

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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College Football

Iowa State Cyclones

Texas Longhorns

Stanford Cardinal

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

USC Trojans

Utah Utes

CFB - Iowa State Cyclones vs. Texas Longhorns - 10/15/2022

CFB - Stanford Cardinal vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 10/15/2022

CFB - USC Trojans vs. Utah Utes - 10/16/2022

Geoff Schwartz