College Football

College football odds Week 8: Why Oregon to beat UCLA is your best bet

Updated Oct. 20, 2021 3:57 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

The Ducks are in a primetime spot, the Wolverines are looking to remain undefeated, and the Irish are coming off a bye. Welcome to my Week 8 college football preview!

Let's jump into my best bets, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.

Oregon (+2 at FOX Bet) at UCLA

If you enjoy a college football game featuring two offenses that will establish the run, have average quarterbacks who are incredibly mobile, and with defenses that are suspect in the passing game, do I have a game for you.

Oregon and UCLA are close to mirror images. Oregon ranks 17th in rushing efficiency, while UCLA is 25th. Oregon ranks 23rd in points per drive, while UCLA is 30th. UCLA's passing success rate is 35th, while Oregon's is 49th. UCLA's offense is more explosive (28th) than Oregon's (77), but in the end, they both average just a touch more than 30 points per game.

Both teams also have mostly underwhelming veteran quarterbacks. UCLA's Dorian Thompson-Robinson is starting in Westwood for the fourth season now, and PFF has graded him as the seventh-best quarterback in the conference. He completes 60% of his passes for 8.3 air yards per attempt. DTR is a good quarterback when the pocket is clean and the offense is schemed up (play-action pass). When things break down, he's not good. Simple.

Oregon's quarterback is Anthony Brown, the sixth-year senior who started three seasons at Boston College before transferring to Oregon before the 2020 season. Brown is the same quarterback he was at Boston College. When things are right, and he's got one read, he's good. But Brown is often late with the ball and not very accurate. He misses open receivers all over the field. However, in big moments this season, whether at Ohio State, against Fresno State, or Cal, he's made plays in the fourth quarter to win them games. Oregon is outscoring opponents 71-32 in the fourth quarter. The Ducks finish games strong.

On defense, Oregon is a classic bend-but-don't-break defense. It ranks sixth in explosive play rate, 37th in points per drive, and 122nd in plays per game. The team's rushing defense is middle of the pack, and the overall passing defense can be rough to watch. There are still way too many open receivers and assignment mistakes. The Ducks have a backlog of injuries at linebacker and safety, but they've gotten healthier upfront.

The potential first pick in the draft, defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux, only played the second half against Cal after a targeting suspension took him out of commission for the start of the game. He had 11 pressures and one sack in that game. Before Thibodeaux injured his ankle back in Week 1, he had three pressures and a sack. He's incredible, and the Ducks will need him big time in this game to help their pass defense.

But, stopping UCLA's rushing attack will be the most important factor in this matchup, as the Bruins will try to dominate the game in the trenches. Like the Ohio State game, I expect the Ducks to be ready for the challenge.

UCLA's defense doesn't hit the quarterback, allows big plays in the passing game, and ranks 74th in points per drive. And, this year, it has lost against veteran quarterbacks who can hit home runs against the Bruins' pressure schemes.

While Anthony Brown is ranked 12th by PFF in the conference, he's a veteran quarterback. More importantly, he's guiding an offense led by one of the best coordinators in the game, Joe Moorhead.

Moorhead missed the Stanford game with emergency surgery, and the offense was worse without him in the booth. Last week, he was back in person against Cal, and Brown had his best passing game since Ohio State.

I'm taking the Ducks here because their defense and pass rush is better, and there are ample opportunities in the passing game with UCLA's pressure scheme. And UCLA is worse at home (both losses), and Oregon tends to play better away from home.

But more than anything, Oregon is a glory-hound team. They play UP in big games under Mario Cristobal. Whether it's against Washington twice, at USC, Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl, Auburn to start 2019, Pac-12 title game, and Ohio State, they won and covered all but one of those games (Auburn).

This weekend College GameDay will be in Los Angeles to cover this game. Half of the team feels like it's from Los Angeles, which is another opportunity to play in front of family. I'll take the Ducks to win and cover.

PICK: Oregon (+2 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 2 points (or win outright)

Northwestern at Michigan (-21.5 at FOX Bet)

I'm playing Northwestern in the first half, as Michigan is 1-6 against the spread after a weekend off over the past seven years.

When you study the Woverines' games following a bye, the issue appears to be first-half scoring. Michigan has scored three, 14, and 17 in the first half after their bye weeks the last three years. And while Northwestern's offense has been good this season, especially rushing the football, it's led by their defense, which I believe will play strong in the first half.

On the other side of the ball, the Michigan defense is its strong suit. Michigan's defense is ranked ninth overall, and it's hard to find a weakness. The Wolverines can be had on third-and-long, but the Wildcats aren't built to take advantage of that.

I like the first half under (and not the full game) under because Michigan's rushing attack wears down opponents. Michigan is ranked 12th in the country in second-half points. If Northwestern truly struggles to move the ball, I could see a second-half full of points for the fighting Harbaughs.

PICK: Under 27.5 combined points in the first half at FOX Bet

USC at Notre Dame (-7 at FOX Bet)

I don't have many strong gambling principles in college football. I do like home conference dogs and tend to wager for or against emotions.

However, I love fading USC against physical teams, especially against physical defenses.

And while Notre Dame might be lacking offensive firepower, it does not lack defensive physicality. The team ranks 13th in success rate, 12th in rushing success rate, 30th in points per drive, and fourth in pressure rate.

To put it mildly, USC has a soft offense. It can't run with any explosiveness (96th), and it's always in third-and-long situations. The Trojans are also awful at converting red-zone chances into touchdowns. They have 25 red-zone trips with 14 touchdowns, good for 56% and 86th in college football.

USC's best option on offense is wide receiver Drake London, and when he's taken out of the game, the offense grinds to a halt. I don't envision USC scoring many points in this game.

On the other side, Notre Dame is on the struggle bus offensively. Its once dominating offensive line is no more, as injuries and young players have struggled this season.

The Irish rank 113th in rushing success rate and only 99th in pressure rate. Luckily for Notre Dame, it gets to face a USC defense that ranks 79th at defending the run and 109th in pressure rate.

Every rushing offense has their get-right game against USC. Stanford ranked 129th in rushing success rate and had 141 yards against USC. Oregon State had 322 rushing yards, and Utah had 180 against the Trojans. They are a lifeless team, and the Irish have the better coaching staff.

I'll take ND and lay a touchdown here.

PICK: Notre Dame (-7 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7 points

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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