College Football

College football odds Week 9: Bet on Ohio State to rout Penn State (and more)

Updated Oct. 28, 2021 1:11 a.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

I can't believe it is already Week 9 of the college football season! Time flies when you are having fun.

Well, it's a monster weekend in the Midwest, with multiple Big Ten clashes between Top 25 opponents. And I'm loving a few games out West, too.

Let's jump into my best wagers for Week 9, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet!

Penn State at Ohio State (-18 at FOX Bet)

This game features two teams going in opposite directions. With quarterback C.J. Stroud getting his first opportunity behind center, Ohio State started the season sluggishly, beginning slowly at Minnesota before pulling away late. Ohio State then lost to Oregon at home and followed that with a lackluster performance against Tulsa. But the Buckeyes turned it around by dominating Akron the following week, and the team hasn't looked back since.

Ohio State has scored 52, 66 and 54 points while allowing only 37 total points the past three weeks against Big Ten opponents. The Buckeyes' offense is ranked first in the country and is second in points per drive, but their defense is also solid, ranking 28th in success rate, 16th in limiting explosive plays and 23rd in points per drive.

The team's defensive improvement is worth noting, as it did not play this well to start the season. OSU has moved away from single high-man looks to disguising more coverages, and it's paying off. Also, young players, such as freshman defensive tackle Tyleik Williams, are starting to come into their own.

On the other side is Penn State, which started the season hot but has cooled off recently. There's no one to blame, as the injury bug struck Sean Clifford against Iowa (PSU was cruising in that game before his injury). After a bye week, Clifford returned against Illinois, but the Penn State offense was not effective at all, losing 20-18. Unfortunately for the Nittany Lions, their once promising season is now over.

Penn State's ability to keep this game close will depend on its defense, which ranks first in stopping explosive plays and 55th in pressure rate. However, if the Nittany Lions are on the field a bunch because their offense just can't move the ball, that spells trouble.

The Penn State offense ranks 110th in third-and-out percentage, meaning it's 110th in gaining a single first down on a drive; against Ohio State, that won't cut it. If PSU's defense is on the field for large portions of this game, it will get worn down.

James Franklin's name is also rumored for the USC job (he wants this job) and the opening at LSU. That's another distraction for the team.

This game smells like a blowout. Ohio State is playing for a playoff spot, while Penn State is playing out the season before its coach leaves. No matter how you slice it, Penn State is about to get smoked in Columbus.

I'll take Ohio State to win by at least three touchdowns.

PICK: Ohio State (-18 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 18 points

Michigan at Michigan State (Total: 50.5 at FOX Bet)

I like the under in this defensive matchup between two top-10 teams. Michigan's defense is ranked eighth in points per drive, 32nd in pressure rate and 20th on third downs. Michigan State's defense ranks 23rd in points per drive, eighth in limiting explosive plays and 46th in pressure rate.

Both defenses also rank in the top 21 in yards per play. Why is this so big? In the 150 games between teams ranked in that statistic, 60% of the matchups have gone under, including four of the past five games featuring Michigan State.

Beyond the defense, these games have gone under because of the offensive styles of the teams. Both squads feature run-first units that try to limit the number of passes their quarterbacks throw.

Michigan State is ranked 31st in rushing success, which helps it move the ball into manageable third-down situations. Through seven games, its quarterback has only 183 passing attempts. Michigan State has yet to play a defense even close to Michigan's, so it will struggle mightily to move the ball.

Michigan's offense is about ball control, as its running backs have almost double the attempts of quarterback Cade McNamara. The Wolverines like to wear down opponents between the tackles because they can't get on the edge much in the passing game. This makes the team one-dimensional and easy to pin down.

I have a feeling this game is going to be a classic Big Ten slugfest. I'll take the under.

PICK: UNDER 50.5 points combined by both teams at FOX Bet

Colorado at Oregon (Total: 49 at FOX Bet)

This one is simple: Take the under.

As I mentioned last week, Oregon is a glory-hound team. It plays well in big games and then plays down to opponents in games similar to this one.

Colorado cannot move the ball, ranking 125th in success rate on offense and 100th in explosive plays. The Buffaloes rank 104th in pressure rate and 124th in points per drive. Yes, the team's offense is that bad.

Colorado also just fired its offensive line coach and now faces a stingy, bend-but-don't-break Oregon defense. The Ducks also have the best player in college football in Kayvon Thibodeaux rushing the passer and terrorizing the Colorado offense.

On the flip side, Oregon's offense never gets up to face these types of opponents, primarily due to a game plan of not wanting to show much. With Washington on deck the following week, I think we see some boring offense from the Ducks this weekend.

Oregon scored 24 points in back-to-back weekends before putting up 34 against UCLA. The Ducks also have offensive line concerns. Lastly, despite Colorado's issues on offense, its defense is OK.

This game has 24-10 Oregon written all over it. Take the under.

PICK: UNDER 49 points combined by both teams at FOX Bet

Oregon State at California (Total: 55.5 at FOX Bet)

If you had to guess which team in the country is first in rushing success rate, would you think Oregon State? Of course not. But there it is.

Oregon State pounds the rock each week, and Cal's defense has issues stopping the run. Oregon State running back B.J. Baylor averages nearly 4 yards a carry, and that's before contact. This Beavers offensive line runs teams off the ball, and it leads to points, as they rank 12th in points per drive.

On the flip side, the Oregon State defense is a dumpster fire. The team ranks 118th in sack rate and 80th in pressure rate and creates almost no havoc with the defensive line.

Cal's offense is carrying this team. The Golden Bears' record is misleading, as they could easily be 5-2 instead of 2-5, with two losses occurring with a postgame win expectancy of more than 60%.

The Bears' offense ranks eighth in rushing success rate but has been poor in the red zone at times. Nonetheless, they move the ball down the field, ranking 50th in yards per drive. And just like Oregon State, the defense is suspect, ranking 78th in rushing success and 105th on third downs.

This contest on Strawberry Hill will be a scoring bonanza for all the reasons above. Sit back, and take the over!

PICK: OVER 55.5 points combined by both teams at FOX Bet

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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