College Football

College Football Playoff odds: 'There are a lot more tickets and money on ‘Bama'

Updated Dec. 21, 2023 3:32 p.m. ET

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Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Oftentimes in sports betting, line movement doesn’t directly line up with what’s actually coming across sportsbook counters. At the moment, that’s the case with the Alabama-Michigan showdown – or at least that’s the case at The SuperBook. 

Earlier this week, multiple sportsbooks made a move from Michigan -1 to -2. The SuperBook was at Michigan -1.5 and also moved to -2. With the spread stagnant for much of the past two weeks, any move is noteworthy. 

So, did the professional bettors get involved? 

"There are no really sharp guys involved in either of the playoff games. They’re looking at all the earlier bowl games," SuperBook senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon said. 

In fact, contrary to the move, Alabama is still quite popular. Degnon took a few minutes to break down the College Football Playoff odds on both semifinal games. 

Money Tide Rising 

Back on Dec. 3, when the two matchups were announced, The SuperBook opened Michigan as a 2.5-point Rose Bowl favorite vs. Alabama. Within two hours, the line was down to Wolverines -1.5, and it briefly bottomed out at -1 on Dec. 5 before returning to -1.5.

The SuperBook stuck at Michigan -1.5 for two weeks, finally giving the number a nudge to -2 on Tuesday morning. Michigan -2 is the consensus, but -1.5 is still out there. And if action keeps going as it is, perhaps even better numbers await patient Wolverines backers. 

"There are a lot more tickets and money on ‘Bama, both spread and moneyline," Degnon said. "I think we’ll probably need Michigan when kickoff arrives on New Year’s Day." 

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‘Dog Money Barking 

In the second semifinal on New Year’s Day, Texas opened a 4.5-point Sugar Bowl favorite vs Washington. The Longhorns went to -4 within minutes on Dec. 3, then briefly returned to -4.5 on Dec. 4. But since the afternoon of Dec. 4, The SuperBook hasn’t budged off Texas -4. 

"It’s about 2-to-1 tickets in favor of Washington on the spread. Washington has more tickets on the moneyline, too," Degnon said. "And there’s more money — on the spread and the moneyline — on Washington, in straight bets and on parlays." 

Degnon thinks the public will show some interest in Texas over the next week and a half. But he doesn’t foresee the line moving up much, if at all. 

"Maybe we’ll see 4.5 again, but I don’t think it’ll go higher than that," he said. 

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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