College Football

College football playoff predictions: Big Ten, SEC occupy eight of 12 spots

Updated Nov. 5, 2024 7:35 p.m. ET

FOX Sports National College Football Analyst

Wins is not a quarterback stat.

Carson Beck is 20-2 as the starter at Georgia. He has thrown 11 interceptions in his last five games and three in each of his last two. Against Texas and Florida, the Georgia defense bailed Beck out and the Bulldogs ended up winning by double-digits in spite of his poor decision-making.

Ohio State QB Will Howard led Kansas State past an undefeated Texas Christian for the 2022 Big 12 Championship. He also made an infamous decision to slide that sealed the only loss for the Buckeyes this season against Oregon. He also threw a pick-six against Penn State. That was his fifth, which is the most among all active FBS quarterbacks. Ohio State still beat Penn State by a touchdown.

And, about Penn State, Drew Allar is 17-4 as a starter, but he has yet to notch a signature win on his résumé as QB1.

While we're certain quarterback play impacts winning more than any other position in the sport, it's the defense that has shined against quality competition this year. Defense still wins championships. Georgia, Ohio State and Penn State are all among the top 15 scoring defenses in the country. How much will that thinking factor into the suits' initial CFP rankings on Tuesday? After all, it did for Florida State last year.

With that said, let's get to my updated CFP projections:

1. Oregon
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 9-0

2. Georgia
Conference: SEC
Record: 7-1

3. Miami (Fla.)
Conference: ACC
Record: 9-0

4. BYU
Conference: Big 12
Record: 8-0

5. Ohio State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 7-1

6. Texas
Conference: SEC
Record: 7-1

7. Indiana
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 9-0

8. Tennessee
Conference: SEC
Record: 7-1

9. Penn State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 7-1

10. Notre Dame
Conference: Independent
Record: 7-1

11. Alabama
Conference: SEC
Record: 6-2

12. Boise State
Conference: Mountain West
Record: 7-1

1. Oregon: Bye (would then play the winner of 8. Tennessee vs. 9. Penn State)

2. Georgia: Bye (would then play the winner of 7. Indiana vs. 10. Notre Dame)

3. Miami: Bye (would then play the winner of 6. Texas vs. 11. Alabama)

4. BYU: Bye (would then play the winner of 5. Ohio State vs. 12. Boise State)

5. Ohio State (Big Ten championship runner-up) vs. 12. Boise State (highest-ranked Group of 5 champion)

Ohio State's win against Penn State on the road gets everybody back on the program: The Ohio State national-title-winning periodization program. Reps are going down, and it's time to get your weight up.

The Buckeyes are 7-1 or better for the 13th year in a row. Their only loss this season was by one point, on the road, to the No. 1 team in the country, and they have yet to peak.

And here comes the metaphor remix.

They'll max out on Nov. 30, and then we'll finally see what an in-form, $20 million roster race car looks like on a Q3 flying lap looking to take pole. Call 'em Lewis Hamilton in the Ferrari.

Will Howard has helped guide Ohio State to a 7-1 record heading into Week 11 of the season. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

6. Texas (SEC championship runner-up) vs. 11. Alabama (one of the top-12 teams)

While some might think of this as the Steve Sarkisian Bowl — as Sark was the offensive coordinator at Alabama the last time the Tide won the national title, his last stop before becoming head coach at Texas — I think of this as the Jalen Milroe Revenge Bowl.

In his first chance to beat Texas, Milroe threw two interceptions at Bryant-Denny and was benched for his attitude following the game, as much as his play. Milroe, once committed to Texas, was asked to look elsewhere and ended up at Alabama. In this game, he'd get one more chance to redeem himself against Texas and at Nick Saban Field.

Alabama QB Jalen Milroe has thrown for 1,937 yards and 13 touchdowns through eight games. (Photo by Butch Dill/Getty Images)

7. Indiana (one of the top-12 teams) vs. 10. Notre Dame (one of the top-12 teams)

A game for the Indiana state championship? In Bloomington? Forcing alumni to travel not to a posh NFL stadium, but to the home of Hep's Rock? Yes, please!

It's important to note where Indiana ranks with me, the AP, and in Tuesday's first CFP reveal, because I suspect we'll see more stories like Indiana's in the future. Rosters have never been more fluid. The bagman wears a suit to work now. Power conferences bloated to 16, 17 and 18 teams per league. The road to the national title has never been more democratic. Our conservative sport has never felt more liberal.

Kurtis Rourke has helped guide Indiana to a perfect 9-0 record this season. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

8. Tennessee (one of the top-12 teams) vs. 9. Penn State (one of the top-12 teams)

In a flip of a matchup we've seen projected a few times this season, the Nittany Lions would travel to Neyland Stadium to play what would normally be a tasty non-conference matchup for the right to move on in the tournament. The best part of this game for Penn State might just be that Tennessee wouldn't be seeded among the top-five teams in the sport.

Penn State is a top-10 team, not a top-five team. James Franklin is 1-13 against AP top-five opponents at Penn State. If Franklin's team is scheduled to face a top-five team, fade them. Shade them. Short them.

Penn State head coach James Franklin is 1-13 against AP top-five opponents. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The Number One College Football Show." Follow him at @RJ_Young.

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