College Football

College football playoff predictions: LSU vs. Georgia SEC showdown in Round 1?

Updated Oct. 14, 2024 3:56 p.m. ET

FOX Sports National College Football Analyst

Texas hasn't played its best football yet this season, but we should expect that to change this weekend when the No. 1-ranked Longhorns host No. 5 Georgia in an SEC showdown.

Consider this: Georgia might lose its second game before Iowa State or BYU lose its first. Kirby Smart's team, ranked No. 1 heading into the year, could take losses to teams that have seen the No. 1 headband wrapped around their heads at least once this year. And they still might not make the College Football Playoff. Those are the stakes for the Bulldogs as they roll into Austin looking to secure a victory that would be vitally important for their CFP chances. If the Bulldogs lose to Texas, the challenge for the committee will be justifying them as one of the 12 best teams in college football.

Meanwhile, Dillon Gabriel and the Oregon Ducks have rounded into the team we thought they could be heading into the season. Oregon did what others have not — put up 32 points on a team that had allowed fewer than seven points per game, and the Ducks did it with Gabriel going big-game hunting. Gabriel has played 21 games in which he's thrown at least two touchdowns and rushed for one. Only Tim Tebow has accomplished that feat more (24). Also, consider Gabriel's last two games against top-three opponents, where he has had 626 passing yards, 145 rushing yards, five total touchdowns with a 2-0 record. With Gabriel at QB, Oregon beat a top-two ranked opponent for the first time in its history. While we're here, Texas doesn't really want to see Gabriel again, does it?

Texas likely wants to see Oregon like Penn State wants to see Indiana. But a Nittany Lions-Hoosiers matchup isn't on the schedule this season, and that's too bad because Indiana would be right to ask what it is we see in Penn State?

While Penn State tight end Tyler Warren went full Kratos — fearing no gods — with 17 catches for 224 receiving yards, if he hadn't put up those numbers, Penn State would have lost to a USC team that sits at just 3-3 halfway through the season.

Meanwhile, Indiana has mopped the floor with its competition, becoming the first team this season to record six wins while ranking ninth in the country in third-down efficiency (54%), fourth in yards per game (515.7) and second in scoring (47.5 points per game). Put Indiana in Penn State's uniforms, and then you'd likely agree that the Hoosiers are the third-best team in the country, and not the 16th. Penn State is getting the blue-blood bump.

For now, though, Penn State gets to play in the 12-team CFP — for now. Let's get to my third set of CFP projections for the 2024 college football season:

1. Oregon
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 6-0

2. Texas
Conference: SEC
Record: 6-0

3. Miami (Fla.)
Conference: ACC
Record: 6-0

4. Iowa State
Conference: Big 12
Record: 6-0

5. Ohio State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 5-1

6. Penn State
Conference: Big Ten
Record: 6-0

7. Georgia
Conference: SEC
Record: 5-1

8. Clemson
Conference: ACC
Record: 5-1

9. BYU
Conference: Big 12
Record: 6-0

10. LSU
Conference: SEC
Record: 5-1

11. Tennessee
Conference: SEC
Record: 5-1

12. Boise State
Conference: Mountain West
Record: 5-1

Now that we have the projected seeding set, let's take a look at what the first-round matchups would look like:

1. Oregon: Bye (would then play the winner of 8. Clemson vs. 9. BYU)

2. Ohio State: Bye (would then play the winner of 7. Georgia vs. 10. LSU)

3. Miami: Bye (would then play the winner of 6. Penn State vs. 11. Tennessee)

4. Iowa State: Bye (would then play the winner of 5. Ohio State vs. 12. Boise State)

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5. Ohio State (Big Ten championship runner-up) vs. 12. Boise State (highest-ranked Group of 5 champion)

Boise State would travel to Columbus to play what looks like one of the best teams in the sport. The Broncos would likely ride Ashton Jeanty until he couldn't carry them any longer in what would be the biggest game Boise State has played since the 2007 Fiesta Bowl. The Buckeyes would leave nothing in reserve to continue their quest toward winning the program's first national title in a decade.

Ohio State's offense is averaging 43.5 points per contest through six games this season.

6. Penn State (one of the top-12 teams) vs. 11. Tennessee (one of the top-12 teams)

The Vols would travel to State College to play in what many consider to be the toughest away atmosphere in the country. Tennessee would lean on its defensive front to get pressure on quarterback Drew Allar and attempt to stop what has been a stout rushing attack. The Vols would do as much as they could to stop tight end Tyler Warren from doing what he did to USC.

Penn State has outscored its opponents by an average margin of 20 points per contest through six games this season.

7. Georgia (one of the top-12 teams) vs. 10. LSU (one of the top-12 teams)

What would normally be a great SEC matchup has higher stakes with the program that won the 2019 national title facing the one that won the 2021 and 2022 national titles. However, with this game at Sanford Stadium, LSU would face one of the most intimidating atmospheres in the country. And if the game is at night? The Tigers would encounter that same feeling visitors do when they have to play in Baton Rouge under the lights — looming dread, destiny doomed.

Carson Beck has passed for 1,818 yards and 15 touchdowns while leading Georgia to a 5-1 record.

8. Clemson (ACC championship runner-up) vs. 9. BYU (Big 12 championship runner-up)

BYU traveling to Death Valley? With a rowdy and ready Clemson team playing for the chance to win yet another opportunity to compete for a national title? There isn't much more the people of Clemson, South Carolina would love than to show the men of Provo a little southern hospitality as they tap Howard's Rock and escort the Cougars out of the CFP.