College Football

College Football Playoff rankings: 5 questions ahead of Tuesday's reveal

Updated Oct. 31, 2022 7:10 p.m. ET

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RJ Young

FOX Sports College Football Analyst

The first edition of this season's College Football Playoff rankings will be revealed on Tuesday.

Ahead of the announcement, which we will cover with a live episode of "The Number One College Football Show," here are five questions I look forward to seeing answered on Tuesday night.

Five questions before the first CFP poll

RJ Young shares his Top 25 rankings and details the five questions he has before the CFP committee releases its first rankings of the 2022 season.

1. Could Tennessee be No. 1 in the first CFP rankings?

Yes, the résumé is there.

Undefeated Tennessee has five ranked wins in eight games. The Vols boast a Heisman contender at quarterback in Hendon Hooker, a Biletnikoff Award contender in wideout Jalin Hyatt and one of the best edge rushers in Byron Young.

But they will get their biggest and best test of the season this Saturday when they travel to Athens to meet the defending national champs, undefeated Georgia.

I think the CFP will stick Georgia at No. 1, Tennessee at No. 2, Ohio State at No. 3 and Michigan at No. 4.

The beauty of that ranking is that No. 1 has to play No. 2 and No. 3 has to play No. 4, and then we get closer to finding out who is fit for the CFP and who is not.

2. Will TCU be ranked in the top four in the initial rankings?

No, though the Horned Frogs have the second-best résumé in the sport. In fact, if Texas Christian simply changed its name to Oklahoma for the selection committee, it would probably be ranked as the No. 2 team in the sport.

Brands matter.

Past history matters.

As much as TCU might run the table and win the Big 12, the Sooners have demonstrated that the Big 12 isn’t the champion-forging furnace that the SEC, Big Ten or even ACC have been since the inception of the CFP. Like it or not, TCU is paying for OU’s past sins.

Sonny Dykes has TCU rolling into its "Big Noon Kickoff" matchup against Texas Tech, with four wins against AP Top 25 opponents. He's the first coach to begin his first year in the Big 12 with an 8-0 start.

But the selection committee is likely to give the fourth spot to either Michigan or perhaps Clemson. The Tigers are 8-0, have three top-25 wins, and have a history of proving, despite playing in the watered-down ACC, that they are good enough to win the CFP national title — twice.

TCU hasn't so much as played in the Big 12 Championship Game since 2017.

3. Where will Michigan fall? 

After adopting the SEC’s nonconference scheduling philosophy of cupcakes, muffins and donuts for an illustrious cakewalk, the Wolverines' league schedule is tough enough for the selection committee to take seriously.

With J.J. McCarthy and Heisman contender Blake Corum in the backfield, and defensive lineman Mike Morris leading the defense, Michigan has shown it can play complementary football.

Ultimately, Michigan’s fate will be decided on Nov. 26 if they arrive in Columbus, Ohio, undefeated for The Game.

Will Michigan move DOWN the CFB rankings?

RJ Young wonders if the CFB committee will devalue Michigan after the Wolverines' gritty victory over Michigan State.

4. Where is Alabama going to be ranked?

For now, probably ahead of TCU and behind Clemson, which would make Bama No. 6. 

The committee has demonstrated in the past that it values an undefeated Clemson team, and will probably view TCU more like it did 2021 Cincinnati — a team perhaps good enough to get pantsed in the noted Dunked-On Spot that is No. 4 in the rankings.

However, Bama would need to win the SEC West and perhaps the SEC Championship Game to keep that edge over an undefeated TCU squad. 

5. How far is the climb for the Pac-12? 

It's not just that the best team in the Pac-12 probably gets ranked No. 8 in the initial poll, it's that the best team in the Pac-12 is Oregon after the league successfully eliminated all of its undefeated teams a week before Halloween.

Yikes.

Though the Ducks are undefeated in Pac-12 play, they have a 46-point loss decorating their résumé like a botched facial tattoo.

The Ducks are not the West Coast elite’s only chance to get into the playoff, they are simply their best chance. UCLA would have to claw past USC — or vice versa — to get into the Pac-12 title game and need some carnage ahead of them to move up.

All the Pac-12 can do is keep playing and wait. But, at least for now, there’s still ball to be played.

Read more:

• RJ Young's Top 25: Ohio State tightens grip on No. 1
• Tennessee is on the rise in Joel Klatt's Top 10
• Michigan routs Michigan State as teams scuffle in tunnel
• Heisman Watch: Corum, Williams challenge Stroud
• C.J. Stroud may have had his Heisman moment vs. Penn State
• Football coaches call game-planning a science, but really it's an art

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The Number One College Football Show." Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young and subscribe to "The RJ Young Show" on YouTube.

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