College Football

College Football Playoff rankings: Charting a path for 12 contenders

Updated Oct. 31, 2022 3:52 p.m. ET

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Bryan Fischer

College Football Writer

This has been an impossibly fun 2022 season of college football, full of magical moments from across the country. Now, however, it’s time to get serious.

The College Football Playoff discussion has mostly been theoretical up to his point, considered only in the background of thrilling upsets, field-stormings and shocking results that are still impacting how we view whether a team is good, bad or mediocre.

With the first set of Selection Committee Rankings arriving Tuesday, the national title chase once talked about in broad brushstrokes will soon become a set of refined talking points. Any nitpicking of poll rankings or questions about a team’s schedule will now give way to dissecting minutia such as game control, offensive efficiency, player availability or what exactly a top-25 win is nowadays. 

For some, this time on the calendar might be a bit of a bummer as it sets the action on the field against the backdrop of a race only a few programs are involved in. For many though, this is when college football goes from random bits of chaos to Saturdays full of consequences in every conference on the board.

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While we can prognosticate all we want on what order the committee might place teams in its Top 25 on Tuesday, it’s clear that the field of true contenders to make their final top four in December has been whittled down to just 12 after nine weeks of action. These dozen programs have done plenty of work to reach this moment, but the effort doesn’t stop until all the games are played, and it’s time to state their case that they’re worthy of playing for the biggest prize of all at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles come January.

How can all 12 do just that? Here’s the case for each team, what their path is, and how it stacks up against the others — from hardest to easiest:

No. 4 Michigan Wolverines

On the résumé: Destroyed No. 16 Penn State

Potholes ahead: Vs. No. 14 Illinois on Nov. 19, at No. 2 Ohio State on Nov. 26

Also on the docket: At Rutgers on Nov. 5, vs. Nebraska on Nov. 12

Controls their fate: Yes

The path: Given the lackluster nonconference schedule, winning out is the only clear path to the playoff. A close loss to the Buckeyes on the road would not be the end of the world, but the Wolverines would need a lot more chaos to happen to remain in the top four if that’s the case.

The case for the committee: As good as last year’s semifinalists with perhaps more flexibility on offense. They’re feisty in the trenches and love to grind games out with one of the nation’s best rushing attacks. The scores have not quite indicated how dominant the Wolverines have been.

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No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide

On the résumé: Beat Texas on the road

Potholes ahead: At No. 15 LSU on Nov. 5, at No. 11 Ole Miss on Nov. 12, vs. Auburn on Nov. 26

Controls their fate: Yes

The path: Win out, and the Tide will be in a familiar spot as a one-loss SEC champion entering the playoff. Doing so would also allow them an opportunity to play in the Peach Bowl given the number of top-25 wins they’d have.

The case for the committee: It’s Alabama and Nick Saban, what more do you really need to say? They have the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and potential No. 1 pick on defense. Despite a few close calls, their only real blemish was losing via a long field goal in the final seconds on a rival's field.

No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs

On the résumé: Beat No. 8 Oregon, thumped South Carolina, Auburn and Florida 

Potholes ahead: Vs. No. 2 Tennessee on Nov. 5, at Mississippi State on Nov. 12

Also on the docket: At Kentucky on Nov. 19, vs. Georgia Tech on Nov. 26

Controls their fate: Yes

The path: Beating Tennessee allows for one close loss in either the regular season or the SEC title game if they don’t win out. A trip to play Kentucky could turn into a brass-knuckle fight in the trenches and Mike Leach’s Air Raid could also be a problem.

The case for the committee: The reigning national champions are better than they were a year ago on offense and have the No. 2 scoring defense in 2022. They started out the year with a marquee win over fellow CFP contender Oregon and have a chance to add two top-10 wins by Selection Sunday.

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RJ Young reacts to Tennessee's statement victory against Kentucky and looks ahead to the Vols' game against Georgia.

No. 8 Oregon Ducks

On the résumé: Beat No. 10 UCLA

Potholes ahead: Vs. Washington on Nov. 12, vs. No 12 Utah on Nov. 19, at No. 24 Oregon State on Nov. 26

Controls their Fate: No

The path: They need Georgia to run the table, and it would help if the Bulldogs thumped Tennessee this weekend. The need to win out is obvious, but they have to convincingly beat teams the rest of the way and hope UCLA or (ideally) USC meets them with just one loss in the Pac-12 title game.

The case for the committee: It will be hard for anybody to get that opener against the Bulldogs out of their heads, but the Ducks have to be given a little credit for playing them in Atlanta during the first game under a new coaching staff and with a host of transfers in place. Oregon has taken care of business since and has looked like a playoff-caliber squad on both sides of the ball.

No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels

On the résumé: Beat potential Sun Belt champ Troy, beat Kentucky

Potholes ahead: Vs. No. 6 Alabama on Nov. 12, at Arkansas on Nov. 19, vs. Mississippi State on Nov. 24

Controls their fate: Yes

The path: There’s only one: Wish for LSU to lose to Alabama, then win out and finish as the 12-1 SEC champions with potential top-10 wins over Alabama and Georgia in the end.

The case for the committee: Given the number of transfers into the program, it’s no surprise that it might have taken a few games for the Rebels to jell. They’re third in the country in rushing yards per game and have played in the meat grinder of the SEC West. If they were to make it unscathed the rest of the way, they’d be more than worthy given the number of good teams they’ve played.

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No. 14 Illinois Fighting Illini

On the résumé: The best defense in the country

Potholes ahead: Vs. Purdue on Nov. 12, at No. 4 Michigan on Nov. 19

Also on the docket: Vs. Michigan State on Nov. 5, at Northwestern on Nov. 26

Controls their fate: Yes

The Path: Win out, beating Michigan on the road and Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.

The case for the committee: The perception of Illinois simply being Illinois shouldn’t color the fact that this defense is for real and the only one allowing single-digit points per game. If they sit there with just one three-point road loss and have two top-10 wins in a three-week span by beating the Wolverines and Buckeyes, the Illini would be semifinal-bound.

No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers

On the résumé: Beat No. 6 Alabama, beat No. 15 LSU in Baton Rouge, topped Florida and destroyed Kentucky

Potholes ahead: At No. 1 Georgia on Nov. 5, at South Carolina on Nov. 19

Also on the docket: Vs. Missouri on Nov. 12, at Vanderbilt on Nov. 26

Controls their fate: Yes

The path: If they beat UGA, the Vols will put themselves in a position to make the final four even if they lose in the SEC title game. If they lose a close one to the Bulldogs, running the table in convincing fashion while seeing the likes of Clemson take an L might still be enough to get to a semifinal.

The case for the committee: The Vols have the best offense in the country, don’t turn the ball over much and have continued to get better as the year has progressed. Yes, the defense is more of the bend/don’t break variety, but it’s not like it matters much when they can score at will with a Heisman candidate leading the way at quarterback.

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No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes

On the résumé: beat Notre Dame, beat No. 16 Penn State in Happy Valley

Potholes ahead: Hosts No. 4 Michigan on Nov. 26, at Maryland on Nov. 19

Also on the docket: At Northwestern on Nov. 5, vs. Indiana on Nov. 12

Controls their fate: Yes

The path: Win out or at least win the Big Ten with only one loss

The case for the committee: The most complete team in the country, having proved it without taking a game off. The offense isn’t even fully healthy but has helped put up at least 44 points in seven of their eight contests. They also have the Heisman favorite at quarterback and the best collection of skill position talent in any league. The defense is as good as it’s been in years, too. 

No. 5 Clemson Tigers

On the résumé: Beat No. 20 Wake Forest on the road, beat No. 21 NC State comfortably, beat No. 22 Syracuse on the road

Potholes ahead: At Notre Dame on Nov. 5, vs. Louisville on Nov. 12, vs. South Carolina on Nov. 26

Controls their fate: Yes

The path: Given the competition from other Power 5 leagues, the Tigers need to win out to ensure another trip to the playoff under Dabo Swinney. It would help if North Carolina is 11-1 rolling into the ACC title game.

The case for the committee: As a potential undefeated Power 5 champion with elite talent on the roster, Clemson would be more than worthy. They have a top-25 offense and defense despite a few issues trying to find a groove on either side of the ball. Their schedule is surprisingly tougher than expected with a string of quality opponents that they’ve taken care of.

No. 7 TCU Horned Frogs

On the résumé: Beat No. 18 Oklahoma State, beat No. 13 Kansas State

Potholes ahead: At Texas on Nov. 12, at Baylor on Nov. 19

Also on the docket: Vs. Texas Tech on Nov. 5, vs. Iowa State on Nov. 26

Controls their fate: Yes

The path: Winning out is the cleanest path. As a one-loss champion of the deepest conference, they might have enough marquee wins to get in as well.

The case for the committee: The best team in the best league from top-to-bottom in the country. They’ve won in blowout fashion, they’ve come from behind and won in every way in between, too. They’ve got one of the most efficient quarterbacks around (22 TDs, two INTs for Max Duggan) and an opportunistic defense that always makes a play when the Frogs need it most.

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No. 10 UCLA Bruins

On the résumé: Beat No. 12 Utah

Potholes ahead: No. 9 USC on Nov. 19

Also on the docket: At Arizona State on Nov. 5, vs. Arizona on Nov. 12, at Cal on Nov. 25

Controls their fate: No

The path: Win out, hope for chaos that includes the only undefeated team being Georgia and a jumbled mess of one- and two-loss conference champions. Convincingly beating USC and getting revenge in Las Vegas over a one-loss Oregon side is a must, too.

The case for the committee: One of the more balanced teams in the country is also among the most veteran-laden groups that could make it to the postseason tournament. Their only loss came on the road at a top-10 opponent in a game in which they didn’t even punt. The Bruins also have an opportunity to net at least three top-15 wins if they get to 11-1.

No. 9 USC Trojans

On the résumé: Beat No. 24 Oregon State on the road

Potholes ahead: At No. 10 UCLA on Nov. 19, vs. Notre Dame on Nov. 26

Also on the docket: Vs. Cal on Nov. 5, vs. Colorado on Nov. 11

Controls their fate: No

The path: The Trojans need Georgia to win out and Clemson or the Big 12 champion to take at least one loss by the time Selection Sunday rolls around. It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if Michigan lost to Illinois and Ohio State either. Then they need to run the table, meet a one-loss Oregon squad in Vegas and keep putting up offensive points with ease like they’ve been doing.

The case for the committee: This is one of the best offenses in the country, and the Trojans' only loss came on the road to a top-15 team by a two-point conversion (that was aided by at least one questionable call, too). This group leads FBS in turnover margin and has a chance to solidify its status as the flagship program on the West Coast by winning out.

Simplifying was key to Duggan’s resurgence 

TCU is the lone Big 12 program carrying the playoff banner, and on Saturday, quarterback Max Duggan was once again critical to the Horned Frogs remaining undefeated.

The signal-caller didn’t need to use his legs as much as he did in the past during a 41-31 win over West Virginia in Morgantown, but he was his typical efficient self in throwing for 341 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. That pick was just his second of the season, and the combination of taking care of the ball and looking down the field is a good reason he’s the fourth-most efficient passer in the country and just ticks behind two others in yards per attempt. 

So how did Duggan — who had a sub-.500 record in his 29 games as a starter under the previous coaching staff — turn into a name firmly in the mix for an invitation to New York for the Heisman ceremony? It turns out simplicity has been key for both the QB and his teammates.

"Less is more is kind of the bottom line with our philosophy," offensive coordinator Garrett Riley told FOX Sports about the Horned Frogs’ approach. "We just do a great job of trimming the fat as much as possible."

That is the byproduct of the flavor of Air Raid that Riley and head coach Sonny Dykes run in Fort Worth, which has produced impressive results despite inheriting most of the offensive pieces that were in place under Gary Patterson. 

While some other coaches may go into games with a call sheet numbering into the hundreds, or thick binders full of notes on every scenario, TCU aims to have 50 to 60 plays it feels good about going into each Saturday. The players then know the intricacies of each, having run them several times in practice by the time they hit the field. 

It helps even more having an upperclassman like Duggan at the controls. Not only is the quarterback able to escape pressure with his veteran presence in the pocket, but his legs have been used to great success on designed runs. He also knows just where to go with the ball pretty much every snap.

"(Max) is a coach’s kid, so he enjoys doing a lot of the extra stuff on his own, the film preparation and all those things. We’re very fortunate to have a guy like him in our room," added Riley. "He is a really competitive guy, too. He’ll get fired up when he feels like he needs to get our team going a little bit. But I think he understands that it’s a long game, and he trusts that what we do is enough. You don’t have to go out there and do some superhuman stuff, he trusts the guys around him."

To that end, five different players have at least a dozen receptions going into the Frogs' game against Texas Tech this Saturday, and eight have scored at least one touchdown. Quentin Johnston is tops in almost all categories as the primary playmaker down the field, but this is a group humming right along mostly as a result of the quick decision-making behind center. 

It helps to have a lot of options to throw to if you’re in the thick of a College Football Playoff chase, even if getting the ball to them is as simple as it can be nowadays for the Horned Frogs.

Make it make sense

Saturday superlatives

Best Player: J.T. Tuimoloau, Ohio State

Team of the Week: Kansas State

Coach of the Week: Scott Satterfield, Louisville

Goat of the Week: Wake Forest’s offense

Heisman Five: 1. Hendon Hooker (Tennessee), 2. C.J. Stroud (Ohio State), 3. Blake Corum (Michigan), 4. Caleb Williams (USC), 5. Bryce Young (Alabama)/Bo Nix (Oregon)/Max Duggan (TCU)/Drake Maye (North Carolina)

Projected Playoff: 1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. Tennessee, 4. Clemson

Tweet of the Week

Super 16

Here’s how I voted in the FWAA/NFF Super 16 Poll this week:

1. Tennessee
2. Ohio State
3. TCU
4. Michigan
5. Georgia
6. Alabama
7. Clemson
8. Oregon
9. Ole Miss
10. UCLA
11. USC
12. Illinois
13. Kansas State
14. North Carolina
15. Utah
16. Tulane

Just missed the cut: Penn State

Best of the rest: LSU, Wake Forest, Tulane, Oklahoma State, Texas, Oregon State, Syracuse, UCF

Pre-snap reads

Texas Tech at No. 7 TCU (Saturday, Noon ET; FOX and the FOX Sports app)

All the momentum seems to be with the Horned Frogs now, who won’t have to leave the state or even get on a bus for the rest of the regular season. Duggan continues to be money on big plays down the field, but this contest could be a little trickier than it seems on paper given the umbrage the Texas Tech folks felt from an offseason tiff and Joey McGuire’s penchant for being aggressive on fourth down. Expect a bit of back-and-forth before Sonny Dykes & Co. eventually pull away.

No. 2 Tennessee at No. 1 Georgia (3:30 p.m. ET)

Nobody is going to give this a "Game of the Century" label, but it is No. 1 vs. No. 2 between the hedges. The Bulldogs have been a little unfocused at points since thumping Oregon at the beginning of the year, but they should be all-in for this game given the implications on the line and the atmosphere at home. Georgia is one of the few teams with decent matchups against that Vols offense and has a shot to limit the run game in ways others couldn’t. This one likely will come down to turnovers and, perhaps, a late field goal to win it for the home side.   

No. 6 Alabama at No. 15 LSU (7 p.m. ET)

Brian Kelly has been on the wrong end of too many of these meetings with Nick Saban, and despite some early signs of progress and good coaching in Baton Rouge, not much will change on that front Saturday night. This could ping-pong back and forth with some big plays, but eventually, the Tide’s two biggest stars (Bryce Young and Will Anderson) will help Bama pull away in the second half with a convincing win. Expect at least one special teams gaffe to play a role. 

Texas at No. 13 Kansas State (7 p.m. ET; FS1 and the FOX Sports app)

Chris Klieman and his staff have to figure out what to do with the quarterback position, given the way Will Howard played last week against Oklahoma State and weighing that against how much Adrian Martinez has meant to K-State's hot start. If he’s healthy, Martinez will be a factor with his legs, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he came off the bench in some manner to find his way to the end zone. UT will be able to put up more points than the Cowboys did in Manhattan, but this has often been a tricky trip for the Longhorns and will prove to be again on Saturday night.

Read more:

• RJ Young's Top 25: Ohio State tightens grip on No. 1
• Tennessee is on the rise in Joel Klatt's Top 10
• Michigan routs Michigan State as teams scuffle in tunnel
• Heisman Watch: Corum, Williams challenge Stroud
• C.J. Stroud may have had his Heisman moment vs. Penn State
• Football coaches call game-planning a science, but really it's an art

Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.

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CFB - Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. TCU Horned Frogs - 11/05/2022

CFB - Tennessee Volunteers vs. Georgia Bulldogs - 11/05/2022

CFB - Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers - 11/05/2022

CFB - Texas Longhorns vs. Kansas State Wildcats - 11/05/2022

Bryan Fischer