College Football

College football Week 1 odds: Why Alabama will roll over Miami, more

Updated Sep. 4, 2021 1:53 a.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

There's a full slate of college football games this weekend! Sign me up.

Here are my thoughts on my five favorite bets on the docket, from Georgia versus Clemson to Miami squaring off with Alabama and more (with all odds via FOX Bet).

Georgia at Clemson (-3)

The marquee matchup of the college football opening weekend slate is in Charlotte between the Bulldogs and Tigers (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC) — two teams with playoff aspirations, with the winner staking an early claim to a playoff berth.

This game will be determined by coaching and quarterback play, as both teams have fantastic defenses, featuring the nation's top two defensive lines. Even though the injury bug hit Georgia hard during camp, it appears they will get most of those guys back in time for this game. Georgia runs a pro-style offense with QB JT Daniels, who improved the offense last season when entered into the starting lineup. He should have a monster season, but it's tough to rely this weekend on an offense that will struggle to generate explosive plays.

On the other side, Clemson is young at QB with D.J. Uiagalelei, who started two games last season as a true freshman. He’s a big kid but mobile and can make plays with his legs. He should be able to carry an offense against a top-tier defense. He’s also being guided by a coach who has won and covered 15 of 19 of Clemson’s high-leverage games, which include playoffs, bowls and ACC championship games), while Georgia has come up short in these moments over the years. Give me the Tigers.

PICK: Clemson (-3) to win by more than 3 points

No. 14 Miami vs. No. 1 Alabama (-19)

This one is simple for me. I’m going chalk with Alabama because I know exactly how this game (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC) will go.

We’ve seen it often. An Alabama team that replaces first-round picks with more first-round picks. All their new starters, including Bryce Young at QB, will seamlessly guide this offense to 40-plus points against this Hurricane defense, which was blah last season.

But where I think this game turns is on the Tide defense against dynamic Miami QB D’Eriq King. The Canes' offense is King, and when Alabama faces one-dimensional offenses, they destroy them. The Canes struggled to run the ball last season, with a success rate below the average. If Alabama wins the line of scrimmage, Miami will struggle to score, even with King at QB.

Lastly, Nick Saban is 11-2 against the spread in opening weekend contests, which tend to be these out-of-conference, neutral site games. I’m rolling with the Tide!

PICK: Alabama (-19) to win by more than 19 points

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No. 16 LSU at UCLA (+3)

Chip Kelly has brought back the visor to UCLA, something he wore at Oregon while going 46-7 in his four seasons at the helm.

Seriously, Chip knows this team is good, as it’s one of the most experienced in the country, and it showed Saturday against a meager Hawaii squad. UCLA’s defense, which is starting all seniors, played fast and quick, tackling much better than in previous seasons. On offense, UCLA’s veteran offensive line and duo of running backs opened giant lanes in the rushing attack.

Now, LSU’s defense is far better than Hawaii's, but the Tigers struggled to stop the run last season, finishing near last in CFB in rushing defensive efficiency. LSU does return a veteran group with players returning from opt-out, but I know the Bruins believe they can control the line of scrimmage.

LSU’s offense was dealt a blow in training camp with the injury to the presumed starter in Myles Brennan. Max Johnson starts in his place, and he has some improving to do. He completed 58.7% of passes last season and will need to be better against the Bruins.

My one cause for concern in taking the Bruins is their QB, Dorian Thompson Robinson, who’s starting for what feels like his seventh season. Robinson looked less than sharp in the first half against Hawaii, missing open receivers the entire half. He started the second half looking crisper before being pulled with a large lead. Robinson has issues with accuracy and playing under pressure, both of which people within the program hope has been "fixed" in his senior season.

I’m concerned but will hope for the best Saturday (8:30 p.m. ET, FOX). Lastly, where is LSU’s mindset after being displaced because of Hurricane Ida? I don’t know, and that could play a factor in this contest.

PICK: UCLA (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

No. 19 Penn State (+5.5) at No. 12 Wisconsin

Ownage is real, and Penn State owns Wisconsin right now. The Lions have won and covered four straight, and in their past seven contests, they've covered six times. There’s something about Wisconsin’s play style and Penn State’s preparation that makes this matchup (12 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX) advantageous for Penn State.

The Nittany Lions started last season slowly, losing their first five games, but they finished strong, winning their final four games. Their defense was suspect last season but returned almost no starters. Now they are back and ready to improve on last year’s performance.

They face a Wisconsin offense that continues to be boring and stale. They prefer to pound the rock and limit mistakes, but that’s at a cost. They finished 111th in explosive play rate on offense and 86th in points per drive last season. It’s difficult for me to back a team that has trouble beating an opponent and doesn’t generate explosive plays.

Last note, James Franklin’s Penn State squad has covered eight of their past 11 games as an underdog and should improve their awful turnover margin this season.

PICK: Penn State (+5.5) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points (or win outright)

San Jose State (+14.5) at No. 15 USC

My day job is hosting "SiriusXM Pac-12 Today," so I know this conference inside out, and while it might bore some of you, I’m best at handicapping the conference of champions. This is a game you might not watch (5 p.m. ET Saturday, Pac-12 Network), but you will get an alert on your phone late in the third quarter of this game that USC is on upset watch.

San Jose State can play, and they can score. USC’s defense has some playmakers up front but nowhere else on the defense right now. My concern for the Trojans is always their offense. It’s not a physical offense and can be pushed around. USC is awful at rushing the football, so teams sit back on defense and make USC slowly march down the field.

This makes USC’s margin of error small, and it leads to them playing close games. The Trojans' record last season was good but buoyed by late wins against Arizona State and Arizona. San Jose State will be a motivated squad, as a large portion of their roster was overlooked by USC during the recruiting process. Add in SJSU's against the spread record of 15-5-1 since 2018, and I’m on the Spartans.

PICK: SJSU (+14.5) to lose by fewer than 14.5 points (or win outright)

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.