College Football

College football Week 1 odds: Why Wisconsin will cover vs. Penn State

Updated Sep. 4, 2021 1:43 a.m. ET

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The Week 1 slate of college football is being called one of the best this century, with multiple matchups involving Top 25 teams and one involving two top-five teams.

It feels much-needed, as college football was hit hard last year by COVID cancellations and an abbreviated season. You know what else is much-needed? Getting back to the counter for some college football games! We’ll attempt to do best bets for the marquee games in this space each week.

Here are your college football Week 1 odds on the games I like the most, starting at Big Noon (with odds via FOX Bet).

Wisconsin (-5.5) vs. Penn State

This opened at Badgers -3.5, and it’s been one-way money on Graham Mertz and Wisconsin. The Badgers haven’t beaten Penn State in the past four meetings, but that streak will end Saturday.

Wisconsin has a colossal edge defensively, led by coordinator Jim Leonhard and his experienced secondary. PSU QB Sean Clifford is 23 years old but coming off a poor 2020 campaign. He’s on his third offensive coordinator in three years. If this game were at night at Camp Randall, the line might be seven.

Pick: Badgers (-5.5) to win by more than 5.5 points

Clemson (-3) vs. Georgia

The Tigers opened as 4-point favorites, and it’s been bet down to 3. With three being the most key number in football gambling, the view is this: Take Georgia at 3.5, and if you can find a -2.5, you come back on Clemson. It's tough to find a big edge either way, though.

Clemson QB D.J. Uiagalelei threw for 439 yards and two TDs in a start last year vs. Notre Dame. I have Georgia’s JT Daniels as my No. 1 pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. The game should be incredible, but just a reminder: It means absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things. Georgia will still almost certainly reach the SEC title game; it will be a massive upset if Clemson doesn’t win the ACC for the seventh year in a row.

If you are thinking big-picture, consider fading both in the first half next week in an obvious letdown spot.

Pick: Georgia at 3.5 or more, like it a lot less at +3; Clemson at -2.5 or less

UCLA (+3) vs. LSU

Professional gamblers backing UCLA have pushed this down from 5.5 to 3, so you missed the best number, but there’s still some value in the Bruins at home. LSU relocated to Houston this week due to Hurricane Ida; meanwhile, the Bruins thrashed Hawaii, at one point leading 41-3 in the second half. The Bruins looked like a team returning 10 offensive starters.

This one will come down to whether UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson can make plays through the air against a strong LSU secondary — albeit one that was torched last year. The Tigers gave up more 40-yard plays than anyone else in the SEC, despite featuring a top-10 draft pick at cornerback, Derek Stingley (targeted only 30 times, six interceptions).

The biggest edge will be in the trenches, where UCLA returns all five starters and should be able to move the ball on the ground. Sprinkle a little on the moneyline, too.

Pick: Bruins +3.5 OR UCLA moneyline (+120; bet $10 to win $22 total)

Louisiana at Texas (-8.5)

The Cajuns are a road public dog — three very scary words. In the summer, Texas was as high as -16.5 in the desert; it was as low as eight earlier this week before the buy-back began.

Some of this has to do with Louisiana opening last season on the road and beating Iowa State 31-14. Louisiana’s coach, Billy Napier, is probably in line for a Power 5 job next offseason. This year, he returns 20 starters and QB Levi Lewis.

The bet here is on Texas, putting faith in Steve Sarkisian’s new offense invigorating a dormant Longhorns program. Deep Heisman sleeper Bijan Robinson should top 200 yards of total offense against a soft Louisiana front seven.

Pick: Longhorns (-8.5) to win by more than 8.5 points

Alabama (-19.5) vs. Miami

I'm not sure how anyone can back Miami here, even if it balloons to 21 before kickoff. The under has tumbled from 63 to 61.5 because it’s unclear if the Hurricanes will be able to move the ball much against arguably Nick Saban’s best defense in the past five years.

The Tide lost five players to the NFL on offense, but the defense returns eight starters. Offensively, Alabama might start slowly under highly touted QB Bryce Young, who threw only 22 passes as a freshman. But we’re talking about a Miami defense that gave up 778 yards (not a misprint) of offense to UNC last year.

My favorite play of the game — and perhaps of the marquee slate of Week 1 games — is the under because this one has 49-7 or thereabouts written all over it.

Pick: Under 61.5 total points scored combined by both teams

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.