College Football

College football Week 2 odds: Why Oregon will cover against Ohio State, more

Updated Sep. 9, 2021 5:51 p.m. ET

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By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

There's a full slate of college football games this weekend, so let's dig in!

Here are my three favorite bets on the docket, from Oregon versus Ohio State to Hawaii squaring off against Oregon State and more (with all odds via FOX Bet).

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Oregon at Ohio State (-14.5)

We are starting week two of the college football season with a monster contest in Columbus. It’s FOX's Big Noon Kickoff between Oregon and Ohio State.

I’m a proud Oregon Duck alum, and I rarely wager on my squad because it ruins the fan experience for me. However, this number is too big, and there’s value in taking the Ducks. Ohio State is the team we expected it to be. The Buckeyes can score points at will and can struggle on defense at times. 

Ohio State had an up-and-down Week 1 win against Minnesota, scoring all six of its touchdowns on explosive plays, none of which was fewer than 30 yards. But the Buckeyes struggled to stop the run on defense, allowing Minnesota’s Mohamed Ibrahim to gallop 163 yards before leaving the game with an injury. Their secondary allowed more than 14 yards per reception to the Gophers, which can be traced to an injury-plagued secondary. 

I expect the same level of team performance against the Ducks. Can the Ducks do enough to stop Ohio State from scoring 40 and score enough to cover? 

Let’s explore the Ducks.

The Oregon Ducks struggled at home to beat a feisty Fresno State team, eventually pulling ahead 31-24 late in the fourth quarter at Autzen Stadium. One could look at the score and infer that the Ducks are overrated and have no room for improvement. That would be a mistake. 

Defensively, the Ducks have multiple impact players who showed their value. Kayvon Thibodeaux is a premier pass-rusher, and before leaving the game with an ankle injury, he had a pressure that led to a sack on Fresno’s first drive, then forced a turnover on the first play of the next drive. Unfortunately, he injured his ankle shortly after that and was held out in the second half. The good news is he’s day-to-day, and I expect him to play in Week 2.

Both of Oregon’s starting linebackers are young but elite talents who forced fumbles. Oregon also welcomes back a suspended cornerback, DJ James, to pair with Mykael Wright, a Day 2 draft pick and the highest-graded cornerback in the conference this weekend.

Oregon’s new defensive coordinator plays a ton of zone and will not let Ohio State use explosive plays to march down the field. Oregon’s weakness is its defensive tackles, and I worry that Ohio State could run the ball on the Ducks, which would be a slow death for the defense. For Oregon to cover, it'll need to limit Ohio State to 42 or fewer points. I’ll wager the Ducks can do that.

The most significant question I see with the Ducks covering this game is quarterback Anthony Brown, the transfer from Boston College, starting his fourth season in college football. He’s just OK, and just average quarterbacks rarely keep games close against opponents such as Ohio State. When Brown is in rhythm and on time, he’s good. However, far too often, he’s late with his throws or doesn’t read the field correctly and misses big-play opportunities.

The Oregon rushing attack is what the team will rely on, and that's head coach Mario Cristobal’s identity. The Oregon offensive line was so-so in the first half against Fresno State, struggling to pick up the movement of the opposing defensive line. In the second half, the Ducks settled down, breaking open some large holes for explosive runs.

Based on the film and the history of a Joe Moorhead offense, Oregon held back a large portion of its rushing attack, RPO and play-action pass offense from the Bulldogs. There were plenty of opportunities to call plays that took advantage of Fresno State playing safeties down in the box to stop the run, but Oregon did not call those plays. There’s a recent example, with UCLA busting out a new rushing attack and play-action passes for the LSU game. I believe Oregon will do the same with Ohio State, and this can be enough for Oregon to cover the spread.

This line was going to open around 10 had Oregon played better against Fresno State, and now it has ballooned to 14.5/15 due to the Ducks' poor performance. However, this has been Oregon for the past three years. The Ducks have covered only five games at home under Cristobal while winning 17 of 18 home tilts. 

However, in that time, they sometimes play down to opponents and — this is important — play up for big games. Oregon is 2-0 against Washington (our rival), 2-0 against USC, dominated a top-ranked Utah in the Pac-12 championship game and won the Rose Bowl against Wisconsin. The Ducks should have beaten Auburn in Week 1 of 2019 as well. In all of these contests, the offense brought its A-game, showing plays and wrinkles not seen all season. I expect the same Saturday. Oregon should be able to score enough points to cover the 14.5.

PICK: Oregon (+14.5) to lose by fewer than 14 points (or win outright)

Washington at Michigan (under 51.5)

Washington lost to Montana this past weekend, the worst loss in program history. Not only did the Huskies lose, but they also lost by scoring seven points. Washington marched down the field on its opening drive and then didn’t make it back into the red zone. The offense was bottom-tier in efficiency in 2020, and it appeared last weekend that there hasn't been much improvement.

Quarterback Dylan Morris struggled, often not hitting open receivers. But the alarming factor of this embarrassing offensive performance was the offensive line, a unit that excelled last season. They appeared confused that Montana’s defensive line would be moving each play, which is the only way a smaller unit can compete with a Power 5 offensive line. 

While I can’t imagine this is the offensive performance we can expect moving forward from the Huskies, I’m concerned about Washington’s ability to move the ball against a stout Michigan defense, especially blocking stud defensive end Aidan Hutchinson.

Michigan’s offense was humming against Western Michigan until Michigan’s best offensive weapon, Ronnie Bell, got injured. He’s unfortunately out for the season. While Michigan did have a comfortable lead, the Wolverines chose to major in rushing the ball after Bell’s injury, with the team having 43 rushing attempts. Not all of those were with the back, as they used end-arounds and reverses for chuck plays.

However, the questions about the passing game entering the season are still there after this win, and now the Michigan runs up against an outstanding Washington defense. Washington’s defensive unit has been top-tier for years now, and it showed Saturday. After Montana drove for a field goal on its opening drive, it gained only 33 yards the next nine drives before eventually pushing through a touchdown.

It will be a struggle for both teams to score in this game. Both sides will attempt to rush the ball and limit passing attempts, and both coaches will choose field goals over fourth-down attempts.

I’m going with the under!

PICK: Both teams to score fewer than 51.5 points combined

Hawaii at Oregon State (-11)

ALOHA BET!!

Each week, we will bring you a wager for the final game of the night, often with Hawaii involved.  We have to finish the Saturday slate strong!

I, unfortunately, watched way too much of Oregon State against Purdue this past weekend, and the final score was closer than it should have been. Purdue had its way offensively with the Beavers but couldn’t finish in the red zone, kicking three fields after reaching the scoring zone.

There were questions entering the season about Oregon State’s struggles to rush the passer and stop any aerial attack. After watching the Purdue game, it doesn’t seem like the Beavers are any better in those areas.

Enter Hawaii, who struggled against UCLA to score points but improved against Portland State. Laying 11 with the Beavers at home doesn’t sit right with me. Plus, the Beavers are only 7-16 in their past 23 chances as a favorite.

PICK: Hawaii (+11) to lose by fewer than 11 points (or win outright)

Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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