College Football

College football Week 2 odds: Why you should bet on Iowa State, Ohio State and more

Updated Sep. 10, 2021 7:45 p.m. ET

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By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Week 1 in college football was profitable in this space, especially if you took the recommendation to sprinkle some on the moneyline in UCLA vs. LSU. 

But one week doesn't make a season, and Week 2 is replete with dangerous spots and irrationally exuberant lines. 

One nugget: Anytime you feel great about one side, take a gander at who that team has on deck next week. You don't want to get caught in a potential letdown/look-ahead spot.

Here are my five favorite bets on the CFB slate for this weekend (with all odds via FOX Bet).

Michigan (-7) vs. Washington

The first rule of betting Week 2 in college football is don't overreact to Week 1. Easy to say that; more challenging to follow through and bet it.

Take Washington. The Huskies were 22-point favorites and lost to Montana, 13-7. After scoring on the first offensive drive of the season, they didn't find the end zone in the final 55 minutes. 

How bad was it? 

Washington had one drive of 30+ yards the rest of the game. The look-ahead line had Michigan as a 1-point favorite, but that has ballooned to 7. Using the mantra "nobody is as good or bad as they were last week," you can't take the Wolverines here. 

Michigan easily covered last week against Western Michigan, so the public is all over the Wolverines playing in the Big House at night.

Don't forget, Michigan's last win in Ann Arbor over a Power 5 team was on Nov. 16, 2019 (Michigan State). This bet would be my favorite of the week if Michigan had a Big Ten opponent on deck next week, not Northern Illinois. 

Lean: Washington +7

PICK: Washington (+3.5 1st half) at FOX Bet

Iowa State (-4) vs. Iowa

Continuing the overreaction theme, Iowa State escaped Northern Iowa in the opener 16-10. Everyone understandably loves Iowa State this year, with a Heisman candidate (Breece Hall), a veteran QB (Brock Purdy), and a future NFL coach (Matt Campbell). 

Intelligent people knew that Campbell historically has gotten off to slow starts in September, so they didn't touch the -28.5 line against Northern Iowa last weekend. Because the Cyclones didn't cover for the public, you're almost sure to see the Hawkeyes as the public side here. 

Iowa dismantled Indiana 34-6. Never mind that Iowa was pedestrian offensively, going just 4-12 on 3rd downs with only two explosive plays (over 20 yards) all game. The Hawkeyes also had two first-half pick-sixes by Riley Moss against a good QB who wasn't close to 100 percent healthy (Michael Penix).

This weekend's matchup is a rivalry game. Campbell is 0-4 against the Hawkeyes, but every discernible edge on both sides of the football points to the Cyclones, who play up to their competition (15-8 under Campbell vs. ranked teams).

A combined 14 points have decided the last three games in the series, so I'd consider taking the Cyclones at -200. But the market respects Iowa State way too much to make this just three at home. Remember, this spread was a touchdown over the summer. 

PICK: Iowa State (-4) to win by more than 4 points at FOX Bet

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Notre Dame (-17) vs. Toledo

There are two ways to approach this game: Take Toledo in the first half, or wager on them for the full game. 

This is purely a spot play, but it should be noted Toledo is one of two teams in the country to return all 22 starters from a year ago, according to Phil Steele.

The Irish are also coming into this matchup on short rest, having played Sunday night. 

Notre Dame is also beat up. Star left tackle Blake Fisher (a potential first-round pick in the 2022 NFL draft) is out eight weeks, and LBs Paul Moala and Shayne Simon are out for the season.

Not ideal against a Toledo offense whose DNA is running the football:

• 205 yards and four TDs in the opener
• 4.15 YPC in 2020 (six games)
• Finishing in the Top 20 in YPG and YPC in 2019 (12 games)

Florida State running backs were able to get loose against the Irish defense, tallying 254 yards. Even if you strip away the 89-yard TD run, FSU RBs still rang up 165 yards on 31 carries - good for 5.3 YPC. 

The line for this game was as high as 22 in the summer; there's less value at +16.5. Notre Dame will score, we know that; next week, the Irish resume their in-state rivalry with Purdue, a team it hasn't faced since 2014 and hasn't lost to since 2007. 

Strong lean: Toledo 1st half

PICK: Toledo (+17) to lose by fewer than 17 points (or win outright) at FOX Bet

Ohio State (-14.5) VS Oregon

There will be points galore in this game. 

Ohio State graded out as the best offense in the country after a 45-31 win over Minnesota. 

Freshman QB C.J. Stroud started slowly in his debut, but the offense is too loaded to be kept down. Ohio State had four plays of 50+ yards, tops in the country (some teams have played two games). The Buckeyes had six touchdowns of 30+ yards. 

Oregon's defense – which may or may not have superstar edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux; either way, he won't be close to 100 percent – will give up at least 40 points. The Ducks will be without three linebackers and will rotate three freshmen at the position. 

Once Ohio State gets a lead, expect heavy doses of Miyan Williams, Master Teague, and 5-star freshman TreVeyon Henderson to bleed the clock and roll to victory. 

The last ranked team to beat Ohio State in the Horse Shoe in the regular season was Baker Mayfield's Oklahoma Sooners in 2017. Ladies and gentlemen, Oregon's Anthony Brown is no Baker Mayfield. 

Strong lean: Ohio State -14.5

PICK: Over 63.5 combined points by both teams at FOX Bet

Texas (-7) at Arkansas

Last week, the Longhorns delivered for me, easily dispatching a good Louisiana team at home in a game that wasn't very close (38-18). 

On the flip side, the Razorbacks needed a TD in the final minute to cover the spread against Rice, which led 17-7 early in the 3rd quarter. 

Arkansas is a dangerous underdog here. Razorback stadium is sold out (first time since 2017), and the atmosphere at night will feel like a throwback to decades ago when these two had a rivalry. 

It will be a challenging environment for freshman QB Hudson Card, but I'm putting a lot of faith in Steve Sarkisian once again. He was the offensive coordinator at Alabama last year and knows Barry Odom's Arkansas defense. 

Hate being on the same side as the public, but this has gone from 6 to 7 for a reason.  

PICK: Texas (-7) to win by more than 7 points at FOX Bet

CFB Record (4-1)

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010. You can follow him on Twitter at @jasonrmcintyre.

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in this topic

Michigan Wolverines

Washington Huskies

Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa Hawkeyes

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Toledo Rockets

Ohio State Buckeyes

Oregon Ducks

Texas Longhorns

Arkansas Razorbacks

Jason McIntyre