College Football

College football Week 7 preview: Can Ohio State leave Autzen Stadium with a win?

Published Oct. 10, 2024 3:29 p.m. ET

share

facebookxredditlink

Laken Litman

College Football & Soccer Analyst

RJ Young

FOX Sports National College Football Analyst

Michael Cohen

College Football and College Basketball Writer

Which team sits atop the current Big Ten college football hierarchy?

We're set to get some clarity on that question as a pair of conference showdowns highlight another loaded slate of college football this weekend. In addition to a compelling Big 12 matchup between undefeated BYU and Arizona (4 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports App), No. 2-ranked Ohio State travels to Eugene, Oregon, to battle the No. 3-ranked Ducks, while No. 4 Penn State will attempt to keep its unbeaten streak alive when it heads to Los Angeles for a conference tilt with USC.

There are several other eye-catching matchups across the country in Week 7, including No. 1-ranked Texas taking on No. 18 Oklahoma in the 120th edition of the Red River Rivalry.

FOX Sports college football writers Laken Litman, Michael Cohen and RJ Young are here to preview the biggest storylines heading into Week 7.

BYU has been one of the biggest surprises through the first six weeks of the season as the Cougars sit at 5-0 and atop the Big 12 standings heading into a conference showdown against Arizona on FOX. With only one ranked team remaining on their schedule, should the Cougars be considered the favorite to represent the Big 12 in the College Football Playoff?

Laken Litman: A favorite, yes. 

It's funny because, entering the season, we knew the Big 12 was going to be wide open, but BYU wasn't even among the top teams in the conference projected to win it. Utah, Kansas State, Kansas, Oklahoma State and Arizona were the more popular picks. But all of those teams have at least one loss, while BYU and Iowa State have perfect records. Those two teams don't play each other, and could realistically go undefeated thanks to their winnable schedules before meeting in the Big 12 championship game. 

However, as was very apparent last weekend, anything can happen in this sport. As it pertains specifically to BYU, the Cougars still have to play rival Utah in the Holy War on Nov. 9. That showdown is in Salt Lake City and will likely have College Football Playoff consequences attached to it. 

Michael Cohen: When assessing teams that have gotten off to unexpectedly good or unexpectedly bad starts in a given season, there are certain statistics that can offer a window into whether the trajectory is likely to be sustained for the remainder of the year. They are the kind of metrics that explore key factors in the outcomes of games rather than highlighting individual brilliance. 

On offense, those categories include things like third-down conversion rate, red zone touchdown rate and the number of sacks allowed — and in these areas, the Cougars are a distinctly mixed bag. That BYU is undefeated despite ranking 125th in third-down conversion rate (29.5%) is rather astonishing given the importance of sustaining drives. A red zone touchdown rate of 66.7%, which ranks tied for 45th nationally and tied for fourth in the Big 12, is more respectable. And a miniscule total of five sacks allowed through five games is tied for 16th nationally, which is encouraging for the weeks to come. 

On defense, the categories are quite similar with opponent third-down conversion rate (33.3%, tied for 33rd nationally) and opponent red zone touchdown rate (42.9%, tied for 18th nationally) reflecting how susceptible a team is to lengthy drives that produce the maximum number of points. Things like takeaways (10, tied for 15th nationally) and tackling grade (76.1, 22nd nationally, per Pro Football Focus) can often be viewed as the great equalizers for defenses that are lackluster in other areas. Only allowing six plays longer than 30 yards through the first five games, which is tied for 20th nationally, suggests BYU is fundamentally sound. And for what it's worth, the Cougars are ninth in the country for FEI Special Teams Ratings. 

All told, the numbers point toward BYU being a relatively solid team that is unlikely to lose games through self-inflicted wounds, even if the offense is prone to stalling at times on third down. The Cougars are definitely a good team, though it's unlikely they'll ascend to great with a remaining slate that is virtually identical in strength of schedule to what they've already played: 56th-most difficult schedule thus far, 62nd-most difficult schedule remaining, according to Pro Football Focus. Is all of that good enough to win the topsy-turvy Big 12? It might be, but a Nov. 9 date with No. 16 Utah still feels like a tipping point in the conference hierarchy. 

RJ Young: I'm not yet sold on BYU as the favorite to win the Big 12. As Michael pointed out, BYU hasn't played a terribly tough schedule so far. While there's only one ranked opponent left for the Cougars, Iowa State, West Virginia, Texas Tech and Colorado are all undefeated in conference play too. But because BYU won't play any of the aforementioned teams during the regular season — what a strange fact — it's easy to think that BYU is in the best position to win the Big 12 championship among those without a loss in league competition yet. Let's let this one play out.

Texas and Oklahoma clash this weekend in the latest edition of the Red River Rivalry. The Longhorns have looked dominant through the first six weeks of the season. What does Oklahoma have to do to pull off the upset this weekend?

RJ: The 120th edition of the Red River Shootout features the No. 1 team in the country and the team it has lost to in 17 of the last 25 years: Oklahoma.

But these Sooners will start a true freshman at quarterback, a depleted receiving corps, a patchwork offensive line and a rushing attack as lethal as a weepy care bear. Meanwhile, Texas boasts a top 10 offense and a top five defense. The Longhorns also get starting QB Quinn Ewers back in the saddle. They're the favorite. They're supposed to win this year.

But it's OU-Texas. So hate runs deep. And Texas is elite. But the river runs red.

Michael: Oklahoma will have to generate takeaways if it wants to win the Red River Rivalry for a second consecutive year. Discounting a 51-3 season-opening victory over Temple that feels more and more like an aberration, the Sooners' offense is only averaging 23 points per game over its last four outings — a number that would rank tied for 104th nationally and second-lowest in the SEC on its own. They haven't had a quarterback throw for more than 174 yards in a game, be it opening-day starter Jackson Arnold or replacement Michael Hawkins Jr., and they've yet to produce a 100-yard rusher. The end result? An offense that is ranked 118th in yards per game, worst in the SEC. 

Which means that Oklahoma's best, and perhaps only, chance of keeping pace with a Texas offense that averages 45 points per game is to force the Longhorns into committing turnovers that might shorten the field and facilitate easier scores for the offensively challenged Sooners. The good news for OU fans is that the Sooners have an elite defense that is tied for fourth nationally in takeaways with 13 (eight fumbles recovered, five interceptions) and tied for ninth nationally in sacks with 18. They are averaging 16 quarterback pressures per game through five weeks. So, while the Longhorns are double-digit favorites for a reason — and will probably win when push comes to shove — there's still a narrow path toward victory for Oklahoma. 

Laken: On paper, Oklahoma doesn't have the personnel to match up with Texas this year. The Longhorns are a 14.5-favorite for a reason – and it's actually the first time they've been favored by double digits vs. the Sooners since 2005. That year, Texas cruised to a 45-12 win and went onto win the national championship.

That's not to say the same thing will happen on Saturday. The Horns are a title contender again this year, but rivalry games can be unpredictable. Take last year as one example: Texas was projected to win, played poorly and lost, 34-30. A big difference between this year and last? OU had Dillon Gabriel at quarterback. This year, the Sooners are rolling with freshman Michael Hawkins Jr., who recently took over for Jackson Arnold as the starter. 

Even with the change, Oklahoma's offense is one of the worst in the country. It's averaging less than 300 yards and fewer than 29 points per game, and is ranked 130th out of 134 teams on third-down conversions, having been successful on just 18 of 67 attempts. Its defense, however, is a strength. The Sooners need to force turnovers (OU has 13 takeaways so far this season) and get to the quarterback (18 sacks).

Ohio State is set to take on Oregon in a top-three matchup this weekend in Eugene. This marks the biggest game of the season up to this point for both teams. What must Ryan Day's team do in order to leave Autzen Stadium with a win?

Michael: Ohio State's one-two punch of tailbacks Quinshon Judkins (60 carries, 468 yards, 5 TDs) and TreVeyon Henderson (42 carries, 337 yards, 4 TDs) has been hailed as the best running back tandem in the country ever since the former joined the Buckeyes from Ole Miss, where Judkins topped 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons. They've combined to average nearly 8 yards per carry in 2024 and have racked up 26 rushes of 10-plus yards through five games. The Buckeyes' team average of 6.2 yards per carry is on pace to be the program's highest since 2013 (6.8 yards per carry) when tailback Carlos Hyde and quarterback Braxton Miller both gained over 1,000 yards. 

All of this is relevant because even though Judkins and Henderson form arguably the best running back tandem in the country — and certainly the most talented running back tandem Oregon's defense will have faced this season — neither player is as individually spectacular as Boise State tailback Ashton Jeanty, who shredded the Ducks earlier this year. The nation's leader in rushing with 1,031 yards and 16 touchdowns in five games, Jeanty shredded Oregon for 192 yards and three scores in a 37-34 defeat on Sept. 7 that is still the Ducks' closest margin of the season. He averaged 7.7 yards per carry and broke a 70-yard touchdown run to tie the game in the fourth quarter. 

In other words, even though Oregon's rushing defense has improved to 24th nationally in subsequent weeks, the Ducks are still susceptible to elite players at the running back position. And Ohio State has two of them. The key for the Buckeyes on Saturday night will be establishing the run just like Boise State did with great success in early September. 

Laken: After breezing through the first part of the season, Ohio State's first major test is finally here. Headlines have mostly been about electric freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith and the jaw-dropping catches he's been making, but the most important player for the Buckeyes in this matchup will be transfer quarterback Will Howard. Last year, OSU had a roster talented enough to win a national championship, but former QB Kyle McCord wasn't good enough to take them there. He ended up transferring to Syracuse and Howard came to Columbus from Kansas State.

Howard has been solid so far – he's completing more than 70% of his passes and is averaging about 250 yards per game. He's thrown 12 touchdown passes to just three interruptions, and has a QBR of 178. Oregon has a top 10 defense, and we're going to learn a lot about Ohio State based on Howard's performance.

RJ: From the moment Oregon joined the Big Ten, this is the game we wanted. Ohio State was embarrassed at home by the Ducks the last time they met. This year, they've proven to be the class of the Big Ten, and Saturday's game at Autzen could be the first of three times they could meet this year. I expect the winner of this game to tie the No. 1-team headband around their afro. Oregon should feel good about this game. The Ducks are 43-3 at Autzen over the last seven years, making the place a venerable fortress.

For the Buckeyes to win, they'll need to run the ball as effectively against Oregon as they did against Iowa, and pressure Dillon Gabriel. When Michigan State succeeded in unbalancing Gabriel, the Spartans sent one more than the Ducks could block and came away with two interceptions. That was the first time Gabriel had thrown multiple interceptions in a game in nearly two years. 

Conversely, what must Oregon do in order to beat the Buckeyes?

Laken: Same thing as Ohio State. Gabriel has to be great against the No. 1 defense in the country. 

This means that Gabriel cannot afford to turn the ball over like he did in the first half last week against Michigan State. The veteran QB overcame those mistakes and ended up passing for two touchdowns and rushing for one in the Ducks' 31-10 win.

Oregon also needs to be better at finishing drives. Dan Lanning's team is ranked 94th nationally in red zone conversion rate (Ohio State is No. 10), scoring 80% of the time it makes a trip. The Ducks have to take advantage of every opportunity against this stout defense, because you can bet the Buckeyes will on the other end.

RJ:  Prove you can score in the red zone. Will Stein's offense has struggled to score inside the opponent's 20-yard line and the Buckeyes have shown themselves to be among the top 10 defensively in defending it.

Michael: After five games and five blowout victories for Ohio State, it's difficult to find legitimate weaknesses as the Buckeyes prepare for a top-three showdown against Oregon this weekend. Head coach Ryan Day's team is tied for fourth nationally in scoring offense (46 points per game), leads the country in scoring defense (6.8 points per game) and is tied for 16th in fewest penalties committed (23). The Buckeyes don't beat themselves, and they're very, very good at beating the snot out of other people. 

About the only potential crack in Ohio State's foundation — at least thus far — is a propensity to start slowly in games on the offensive side of the ball. The Buckeyes have only scored 45 points in the first quarters of games so far this season, an average of nine per game. This includes four games in which Ohio State scored seven points or fewer in the opening 15 minutes before eventually reaching a gear few opponents can match. Perhaps the Ducks can capitalize on a raucous home environment at Autzen Stadium and a lengthy flight for the Buckeyes to build an early lead on Saturday night. 

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of "Strong Like a Woman," published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her at @LakenLitman.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The Number One College Football Show." Follow him at @RJ_Young.

Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him at @Michael_Cohen13.

[Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily.]

share

Get more from College Football Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more

in this topic

College Football

BYU Cougars

Arizona Wildcats

Texas Longhorns

Oklahoma Sooners

Oregon Ducks

Ohio State Buckeyes

Penn State Nittany Lions

USC Trojans

Laken Litman

Michael Cohen

RJ Young