College Football

Deion Sanders, Colorado reward win total Over bettors, but books 'will live'

Published Oct. 9, 2023 4:57 p.m. ET

Prior to the 2023 season, one of the most intriguing bets on the college football betting board was the Over/Under on Colorado's win total. Very early on, months ago, a couple of sportsbooks opened that number at 4.5.

Sharp play flooded in on the Under, and the number quickly went to 3.5, which is where most oddsmakers opened. The smart set continued to bet the Under. But the vast majority of public/recreational bettors, plenty enamored by Coach Prime, fired on Over 3.5 as if the result was already known.

Just six weeks in, the public got paid.

BetMGM's Seamus Magee and PointsBet's Wyatt Satre dive into the outcome.

BetMGM Gets Buffaloed

Deion Sanders was never shy about his expectations this season. The new Colorado coach, always outspoken, wouldn't be satisfied with a three-win team, no matter how much outside forces — oddsmakers, bettors, college football analysts — anticipated some serious growing pains this season.

In the past four weeks, the Buffaloes haven't looked as good as they did in Weeks 1 and 2, when they notched a big road upset of TCU, then rolled at home against Nebraska. But what the Buffs have done is gotten to 4-2, after escaping Arizona State with a 27-24 victory.

"Over 3.5 was one of the most-bet-on win totals in terms of [money] and bet count," Magee said. "It's definitely surprising Colorado got it this early, but it's also definitely a great story for the sport. It's bringing more eyes to the game and definitely increasing betting on the sport across the industry."

In Weeks 1 and 2, Colorado bettors racked up big wins against the bookmakers. Now, a lot of those same bettors are cashing those Over 3.5 tickets.

But in Weeks 3-6, the oddsmakers got some payback, with Colorado going just 1-2-1 against the spread. And sportsbooks cleaned up when Colorado got huge moneyline backing as a big underdog against Oregon in Week 4 and USC in Week 5. The Buffs lost both games.

So Magee, BetMGM's trading team lead, said that softened the win-total blow.

"Over 3.5 is a bad result, but we'll live," he said. "The Buffaloes have been great in terms of handle on games this year, and we've gotten three great results in a row now, the last three weeks."

RJ Young discusses Colorado rallying to beat Arizona State

Public Pounds PointsBet

At PointsBet, a Fanatics Experience, Colorado's season win total opened and remained at 3.5 up until the season kicked off. PointsBet trader Wyatt Satre echoed Magee's comments.

"It was our most-bet regular-season win total," Satre said, noting it wasn't just sharp play fading the Buffs' chances. "We had a mix of action, with sharps taking Under 3.5 and retail clients backing the Under."

However, the public betting masses far overwhelmed those who went against Coach Prime.

"Ninety-three percent of [money] was on Over 3.5," Satre said.

New Numbers

If you still want to get aboard the Buffaloes' bus in season win totals, some sportsbooks have adjusted their numbers and are offering an Over/Under on Colorado.

At DraftKings, the latest total is 6.5 wins, with Under a significant -210 favorite (bet $10 to win $14.76 total). That means oddsmakers aren't seeing three more regular-season wins for Colorado.

Looking at the Buffs' schedule, one can understand that logic. In its final six games, Colorado faces four opponents currently ranked in the top 20: No. 18 UCLA, No. 15 Oregon State, No. 19 Washington State and No. 16 Utah.

And, UCLA, Washington State and Utah are all road games.

But if you like Over 6.5, you can get +170 at DraftKings, meaning a $100 bet profits $170, for a $270 total payout.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas