Alabama Crimson Tide

Five reasons Alabama will overpower Michigan State in Cotton Bowl

Published Dec. 31, 2015 9:00 a.m. ET

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Marcus Hartman

Alabama is back in the College Football Playoff against another Big Ten opponent.

That turned out to be bad news last year as Ohio State not only upset the Crimson Tide but overcame an early two-touchdown deficit to take a two-touchdown lead late and hang on for the win.

Going into this one, there is little doubt about who the 2015 Big Ten champion Spartans are, but what about coach Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide? Is this another vintage dominant unit, or did Alabama just look that way because the SEC was down this season?

Alabama has been installed as a favorite in the game, and here are five reasons to expect the Tide to roll the Spartans.

1. Talent

After making its reputation with no-name recruits, Michigan State is on a recruiting upswing. Mark Dantonio’s last two classes ranked No. 19 and 18 according to Scout.com after none of his previous seven made the Top 25. This year, Michigan State could end up with a top 10 class, but those guys won’t be in Arlington to help the Spartans on Thursday.

While MSU’s last two classes were Dantonio’s first top 20 efforts, Nick Saban hasn’t signed a class ranked lower than No. 7 since 2007. The past four Crimson Tide classes all ranked No. 4 or better. MSU’s average rank over that time: 29.8.

Talent is not the be-all, end-all by any means, but it does often reflect which teams win the most games, especially on the biggest stages. And it’s not only recruiting analysts who have been more impressed with the talent on hand in Tuscaloosa -- more than twice as many Saban signees have been taken in the past four NFL drafts than Michigan State players.

2. Derrick Henry

No matter its overall talent, the Heisman Trophy winner is a great trump card to have on any roster.

In the eyes of many, Lane Kiffin went away from Henry too often last season when the Crimson Tide lost to Ohio State in the CFP semifinals, which might raise the likelihood he feeds his star more frequently this time around.

Michigan State’s run defense has been stout overall this season but had some lapses, most notably at Nebraska when the Cornhuskers ran for 179 yards. Air Force ran for 279 yards, but since the Falcons are a triple-option team, that might not mean much in the grand scheme of things.

According to Football Outsiders, the Spartans were more susceptible to giving up consistent short gains than big plays on the ground, something that could play right into the hands of an Alabama team that likes to smash Henry into the line over and over again until the opponent breaks.

3. Pass rush

Alabama is fifth in the country in opponents’ pass efficiency this season and 16th in yards allowed through the air, but how tested is that Crimson Tide secondary? There is little doubt the unit has not seen anything at the level of Connor Cook and his receivers.

The defensive backs could get an assist from a nasty pass rush that has been much better than last season.

Alabama already has 15 more sacks than it managed in 14 games last season. Michigan State has protected Cook pretty well overall, and he does a good job of getting the ball out quickly when necessary, so this could be a key matchup of strength on strength.

4. Opportunistic offense

Slamming the Heisman Trophy winner into the line is fun, but it might not be enough alone for Alabama to beat a Michigan State team built to stop the run.

One of the reasons the Spartans can make life difficult for opposing running backs is the way their safeties get involved in the running game. MSU also likes to press and take away many short passes and the screen game, but the Spartans’ style makes them susceptible to giving up big plays through the air when there is a breakdown.

That has been an Achilles heel the past two seasons, and you can bet Kiffin and quarterback Jake Coker are aware. Coker hasn’t set the world on fire as a passer this season, but he has some dangerous weapons and might not have to hit a lot of passes if he just connects on a home run ball or two.

5. Last season

With a mad motivator like Saban at the helm, Alabama can’t possibly bring anything but its A game to the Cotton Bowl, can it? Perhaps it was just a matter of making excuses, but there was talk after last year’s loss to Ohio State that the Crimson Tide did not respect the Buckeyes enough during pregame preparation. If that was the case, one would think the 2015 Big Ten champions won’t be so fortunate.

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