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Bold predictions for the Iowa Hawkeyes in week one against Miami (OH)
The Iowa Hawkeyes are heavy favorites against their week one opponent, the Miami (OH) Redhawks. Despite the ninth ranked team in the nation, Tennessee Volunteers, struggling on Thursday night against mid-major Appalachian State, a blowout is still expected from the Hawkeyes and other top-25 teams.
With Miami (OH) only compiling a 3-9 record in 2015, and the Hawkeyes being ranked #17 to start the year, the only way this will start to gain national attention is if Iowa struggles and gets put on upset alert.
Even if Iowa wins in a blowout, like many people expect, it’s still an important game for the Hawkeyes. Backups and freshmen may see some of their only action of the season, and Iowa will finally get a taste of real game action, showing what they need to work on before hosting rival Iowa State the following week.
With multiple top-25 matchups slated for the opening week, ESPN pushed Iowa and Miami (OH) to ESPNU. Even if it doesn’t have huge implications on the top-25 this week, a lot of big plays and performances could still happen.
The great thing about bold predictions is that they’re not likely to happen, however when they do it’s eye-opening.
Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Akrum Wadley Rushes for 3 Touchdowns
No one is going to match the performance that Lamar Jackson of Louisville had on Thursday night. The quarterback scored eight touchdowns, passing for six and rushing for two, in the first half of Louisville’s blowout win over Charlotte. Akrum Wadley still has a chance to put together an impressive outing of his own, though.
LeShun Daniels Jr will get the start for the Hawkeyes, however his workload is unknown for week one. With Daniels injury history, Kirk Ferentz will be cautious overusing him in a game the Hawkeyes should win with ease. That means he and Wadley could split carries against the Redhawks, with Wadley taking over in the second half of a blowout.
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Wadley only appeared in eight games last season, rushing for 496 yards. While he didn’t see a ton of time on the field last year as the third string running back, he did score seven touchdowns. He had an act for finding the end zone when given a bigger role.
He scored all seven of his touchdowns in the three games that he saw at least 10 carries. In fact, in his lone start against Northwestern in which he saw 26 carries, Wadley racked up 204 yards and four touchdowns. That instilled a lot of confidence in the Hawkeyes coaching staff when it came to their young running back, especially when considering he torched one of the best run defenses in the Big Ten.
Wadley will have a much bigger role in 2016, making occasional starts if Daniels is hurt. He has a chance to get off to a fast start against a run defense that allowed 4.2 yards per carry in 2015. If the Hawkeyes get out to an early lead then feeding Wadley and the rest of the running backs the ball will be the focus on offense for Iowa.
With Wadley’s big play capability and proven ability to be a workhorse back for a week, he has all the tools to slice through the Redhawks’ defense. Backups will get playing time and that’s all Wadley needed in 2015 to put up big numbers.
Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Desmond King Intercepts 2 Passes
Desmond King is one of the most sought after corner backs in the 2017 NFL Draft. He returned to Iowa for his senior season after tying a school record with eight interceptions in 2015, ranking second in the nation. King will try to add to his 11 career interceptions as a senior, but it will only get harder as quarterbacks will start to avoid him this year.
That might not be an option for sophomore quarterback Billy Bahl, though. If Iowa can score early and often then Miami (OH) will return to chartered waters and be forced to pass from the get-go. That caused problems for the Redhawks last season and will likely be an issue in week one.
Bahl threw 13 interceptions last season as a true freshman. He should improve as a sophomore, however he won’t stop being a turnover prone quarterback in week one. Luckily for Bahl, the Redhawks return most of their receiving core.
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He spread the ball around a lot last season, with four receivers catching at least 20 passes. Spreading the ball around and not giving Desmond King an opportunity to pick off a pass will be necessary if Miami (OH) wants to pull off an upset.
Going off history, Desmond King hasn’t feasted off mid-major teams like many would have thought. It speaks highly to his performances against top-level competition, but it’s also a little odd.
Part of it could be that smaller schools with less effective quarterbacks relied on running the ball, even in blowouts, or used their tight ends more often, resorting to dump off plays against a tough Hawkeyes pass rush. Either way, King intercepted zero passes against Illinois State and North Texas in 2015.
King did intercept two passes in a single game twice last season, but it’s still not an easy feat. If Bahl challenges King then it’s more than possible but, at the same time, Chuck Martin, Miami (OH)’s head coach, has probably been prepping Bahl to throw to the opposite side King is on.
If Miami (OH) wants to test King then they’ll be in for a long day. If not, then the field gets split in half and Greg Mabin and safeties Miles Taylor and Brandon Snyder will have a better chance of having a big day of their own. That’s a recurring problem that Desmond King will cause opposing teams.
Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Hawkeyes Score 50+ Points in Rout of Miami (OH)
The Hawkeyes weren’t a team that ran up the score or dominated on offense in 2015. They scored at least 40 points four times, however their 62-point outburst against North Texas was the only time they topped more than 45 points. Even with C.J. Beathard emerging as one of the top quarterbacks in the league last season, the Hawkeyes continued their ground and pound tradition under Kirk Ferentz, resulting in a lot of close wins and low-scoring games.
The Hawkeyes averaged 30.9 points per game, ranking 53rd in the nation. It’s far from bad offensive production, although Michigan State was the only team in the top-10 of the College Football Playoff poll to average fewer points per game than Iowa.
Beathard will be 100 percent healthy to start the season, though, and Iowa brings back their leading receiver and a running back duo that dominated when healthy. Despite no one expecting the Hawkeyes to waver away from their ground and pound, defensive-minded attack, the Hawkeyes do have a chance to have one of the better offenses during the Kirk Ferentz era.
That could start in week one against a Miami (OH) defense that gave up 32.0 points per game a season ago, ranking 95th in the nation. Plus, the Redhawks lose one of their leading pass rushers in Bryson Albright and intercepted just 10 passes. They’re not a defense that forces a lot of turnovers and running attacks carved through them, as the Redhawks allowed 4.2 yards per carry.
The Redhawks 32 points allowed per game isn’t terrible, however their defense against power conference teams last season was. Against Wisconsin and Cincinnati, the Redhawks gave up 58 and 37 points, respectively. Wisconsin did most of their work through the air, throwing for four touchdowns, and Cincinnati carved them up using their run game, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. It’s shows that Miami (OH) has a lot of holes on the defensive side of the ball, and teams tend to struggle more early in the season as it is.
With the decision-making of Beathard and the strong running game Iowa sports, the Redhawks may not have an answer to the Hawkeyes’ offense. The Hawkeyes ran for five touchdowns and threw for two more during their win over North Texas last year, and a similar outburst to start the season wouldn’t be surprising.
If Iowa gets off to a fast start and forces a couple of turnovers, the Redhawks will have a hard time keeping the Hawkeyes out of the end zone.
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