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Houston Football: Can Cougars Reach College Football Playoff?
Sure, Houston has got the talent. They just don’t have the history to impress the CFP committee.
After last year’s demolition of Florida State at the Peach Bowl and last week’s definitive defeat of Oklahoma, I think everyone can agree that the Houston Cougars is a team on the rise. These boys came to play, and they have all of the qualities one expects from a championship team: a veteran, talented QB; a young, hungry coach and good opponents.
The question is whether Houston can break through the old-boys’ network and get a bid to the College Football Playoff. If Houston pulls it off, they will be the first team from a Group of Five conference to earn a spot in the semifinals.
I love an upstart, and would love to see Alabama get taken down a peg. I just don’t think that Houston can get the votes that they will need to earn a spot in the CFP this year, even presuming they have a perfect season. And that is the trouble—because Houston is currently a member of the AAC, they are considered to have a relatively weak strength of schedule. Houston will have to have a perfect season and one of the teams from the Power 5 conferences would have to have one or more losses for the Cougars to have a shot.
If you analyze the other criteria that the committee considers, Houston is hobbled before they even leave the gate. The CFP’s criteria obviously favors more storied programs. They look at championships won, comparative outcomes, and head-to-head competition. So if you start crunching the numbers, teams like Ohio State and Alabama will always carry more weight. In addition, the rest of the AAC would have to excel this year also in order for the strength of schedule yardstick to swing in Houston’s favor.
It’s not fair, but let’s face it—at the end of the day the CFP game is going to be about money. Teams like Alabama sell tickets. Notre Dame sells tickets. Houston has a loyal fan base, certainly; but big-name teams are going to draw bigger crowds.
It’s not an impossibility. Great teams (even Alabama) get startled by flukey losses all the time. With FSU and Clemson duking it out for the top spot in the ACC, one of them is going to be left out. The SEC tends to destroy one another, as do the Big 10 teams. Houston has talent on their side—they just don’t have the history, and that is going to hurt them.
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