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How Florida State could make college football history in 2016
A touted redshirt freshman quarterback. Three proven receivers. An experienced offensive line that’s gone through the rough patches together. A scary defensive line. An All-America caliber safety.
All of those things would have appeared on a preseason scouting report of Florida State’s 2013 national championship team.
All of them are present again heading into 2016 -- with the additional wrinkle of a returning All-American tailback.
This is not to say that Jimbo Fisher’s team will pull an exact replica of that loaded 2013 team, one that dominated all 13 regular-season opponents before surviving Auburn in the BCS championship game. That’s an unreasonable bar.
“There was an unbelievable chemistry and hunger and drive and a lot of big-time leadership on that team,” Fisher said this spring. “That still has to develop here.”
But it would be a mistake to overlook the ‘Noles in this year’s national title conversation just because they endured a 10-3 rebuilding season in 2015 while divisional rival Clemson won 14 straight games en route to the national title game. Not with FSU returning 17 starters, not to mention its usual crop of highly talented freshman and sophomore contributors.
“We’ve got a lot of guys that have played a lot of football,” Fisher said. “We still only have 12 seniors, but at the same time we’ve got a lot of young guys who’ve played a lot of ball.”
Of course, the great unknown for the ‘Noles is redshirt freshman quarterback Deondre Francois. In FSU’s spring game, the dual-threat talent from Orlando made some eye-opening pinpoint completions but also threw two bad interceptions. He’ll need to do more of the former and less of the latter for the ‘Noles to reach the playoff.
More recently, he drew praise for his performance in a scrimmage Wednesday, the first since Francois’ primary competitor, veteran Sean Maguire, suffered a foot injury that will likely make Francois the Week 1 starter against Ole Miss.
The last time a redshirt freshman started Week 1 for FSU, Jameis Winston completed 25 of his 27 attempts against Pitt. Francois doesn’t need to do that, mostly because of who he’s got around him. Star running back Dalvin Cook, needlessly overlooked in last year’s Heisman conversation despite rushing for 1,691 yards (including a staggering 7.4 yards per carry) and 19 touchdowns, is the face of FSU’s offense, and speedy sophomore Jacques Patrick should be able to carry more of the load.
Meanwhile, Francois will be throwing to a stacked group of mostly veteran receivers -- Travis Rudolph, Bobo Wilson, Kermit Whitfield and Auden Tate.
And defensively, the ‘Noles are once again brimming with talent. Defensive ends DeMarcus Walker (who had 10.5 sacks in 2015) and Josh Sweat will form one of the nation’s most feared tandems. Sophomore safety Derwin James is an All-American in the making.
It’s that defense, in fact, that pushed FSU over Clemson as my ACC champ. The Tigers have presumptive No. 1 NFL Draft pick Deshaun Watson, who’s obviously far more proven than Francois, but the Tigers are also rebuilding quite a bit on defense after six starters from last year’s 14-1 team turned pro early. Even with stud defensive linemen like Christian Wilkins, it’s hard to imagine the Tigers won’t struggle a bit. Which means their offense will need to be clicking every single week.
The ‘Noles, by contrast, should be able to win with the conventional formula of a strong running game and salty defense. They do play a tougher schedule than Clemson, with non-conference games against Ole Miss and Florida, but they don’t necessarily have to go undefeated if they beat the right teams.
The potential party-crasher in the ACC is Louisville. Bobby Petrino’s third team boasts star power with quarterback Lamar Jackson and is loaded with skill talent. It could certainly knock off either or both the Tigers or ‘Noles.
But a 10-win season feels like the Cardinals’ ceiling, whereas FSU and Clemson are shooting for at least 12. And if things go as I’m predicting, the ‘Noles just might become FBS' first-ever 15-0 team.
NEXT: STEWART MANDEL'S 2016 ACC PREDICTIONS
