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TCU coach Gary Patterson has spent much of the preseason trying to convince the media that his team is not very good.
“We don’t know how to fight through the heat. It’s the first team I’ve had in 10 years that doesn’t know how to do that,” he said after a recent scrimmage.
The defense, he said, is not as experienced as most of us are making it out to be. And, “We’re not very good on offense.”
“The bottom line,” said Patterson, “is we’re not very good right now. Either side of the ball.”
Well – I don’t believe him.
TCU’s head coach of 17 seasons, who recently signed a new contract that pays him $4.75 million per year, has a long history of A) operating under a constant state of nervousness over what could go wrong and B) defying expectations again and again.
That will be the case again in 2016, when the Horned Frogs, whom many are discounting after losing stars Trevone Boykin and Josh Doctson, unseat Oklahoma as Big 12 champ. Especially given that TCU, 11-2 last season, wasn’t that far off to begin with. Patterson’s team was without those two standouts for last November’s game in Norman and still somehow came within a failed two-point conversion of beating the Sooners.
OU went on to the College Football Playoff, where it lost to Clemson in the Orange Bowl. TCU slunk off to the Alamo Bowl, where little-used senior QB Bram Kohlhausen rallied the Frogs from a 31-0 halftime deficit to beat Oregon in triple overtime.
Kohlhausen’s performance underscored what a remarkable job co-offensive coordinators Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie do with their quarterbacks. Boykin was nearly a full-time receiver before the pair rescued and turned him into a Heisman contender. Imagine what they could pull off this season with Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill, a 67 percent passer in the SEC in 2014, or fellow starting contender Foster Sawyer.
TCU’s offense will be fine. But its defense is the bigger reason for enthusiasm.
From 2012-14, Patterson’s defenses ranked first, second and first respectively in the Big 12. Last season, injuries drastically depleted that side of the ball to the point where the Frogs fell to fourth.
That’s not likely to happen again.
Ten players with at least five career starts return, led by DEs Josh Carraway and James McFarland and LBs Travin Howard and Montrel Wilson. Don’t expect a repeat of 2015, when an inexperienced Patterson defense uncharacteristically allowed 52 (Texas Tech), 45 (Kansas State) and 49 (Oklahoma State) points.
On the contrary, I’m picking TCU to go 11-1 and reach the College Football Playoff.
All of that being said, it’s certainly possible I’m underselling Oklahoma (though in fairness, I have the Sooners going 10-2). Certainly the trio of QB Baker Mayfield and RBs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon should form the nucleus of an explosive offense. Oklahoma will miss standout WR Sterling Shepard, but Mayfield will just spread the ball around more.
My concern is coordinator Mike Stoops’ defense, which was very good last season but relied heavily on four departed standouts – DE Charles Tapper, LBs Eric Striker and Dominique Alexander and CB Zach Sanchez. Granted, returning CB Jordan Thomas, S Steven Parker and LB Jordan Evans will emerge as stars this season, but the unit as a whole may take a step back.
After that, there’s a pretty substantial drop-off in the Big 12, especially with scandal-torn Baylor unlikely to contend again under interim coach Jim Grobe. That leaves a crowded field of next-level teams – Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas State and West Virginia – vying for a decent bowl.
Keep an eye on the Longhorns. Charlie Strong has finally figured out his program’s offensive identity (it’s Baylor’s), has a budding sensation at quarterback in freshman Shane Buechele, and a defense that is stockpiling young difference-makers. Texas won’t be experienced enough yet to contend for the conference, but it can at least win eight or nine games and take pressure off of Strong.
NEXT: STEWART MANDEL'S BIG 12 PREDICTIONS FOR 2016
