College Football

Iowa Football: Big Ten Predictions for Week Seven

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 9:38 p.m. ET

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Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

Predicting the week seven matchups in the Big Ten

Iowa football travels to West Lafayette, Indiana this week to take on the Purdue Boilermakers. The Iowa Hawkeyes enter the game as heavy favorites but have been anything but dominating over their past four games. Although, they’ll look to change their luck against a 3-2 Purdue team.

Along with Iowa and Purdue, the Big Ten has a great slate of games in week seven. The headliner is between two top-10 teams in Ohio State and Wisconsin. ESPN’s College Gameday will even be attending Camp Randall this week, so the nation will be watching to see who Lee Corso selects as his headgear pick.

In total, the Big Ten has six games. No team is taking on a non-conference opponent. All six games are conference games that could have a huge effect on the conference standings. Both divisions are still highly contested between multiple teams, making this an extremely important week as we reach the halfway point of the season.

With only two Big Ten teams favored by double-digit points, there should be a lot of good games. Here’s a preview and prediction for every game in the Big Ten this week.

Mandatory Credit: Mike Granse-USA TODAY Sports

Illinois Fighting Illini (-6.5) @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights

A week after being part of the Big Ten West Toilet Bowl, losing 34-31 in overtime to Purdue, the Illinois Fighting Illini will take part in the Big Ten Toilet Bowl against Rutgers. The Illini are 1-4 and Rutgers might be their last legitimate chance of securing a win in 2016.

The Illini do walk into a favorable situation, though. Rutgers has been out-scored 150-7 through their first three Big Ten games, including losing to Michigan 78-0 a week ago. Illinois is no Ohio State or Michigan, but it’s safe to say that Chris Ash and his team are lacking confidence after suffering two straight losses by 50-plus points.

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Rutgers’ quarterback Chris Laviano is completing only 47.4 percent of his passes in 2016, and the loss of their top playmaker, Janarion Grant, has caused their offense to go stagnant. Despite a strong start to the season, Robert Martin failed to get anything going against Ohio State and Michigan, marking this Rutgers’ offense as a disaster.

Even though Illinois is giving up 30 points per game, 4.4 yards per carry and allowed Purdue to rush for 231 yards a week ago with their backup running back, the Illini might be able to stop a powerful runner in Martin.

The Scarlet Knights have a depleted receiving core, and their quarterback is coming off two terrible weeks with questionable confidence. Illinois just needs to pack the box and force Laviano to beat them with his arm.

Although, an Illinois victory relies on the shoulders of sophomore quarterback Chayce Crouch. With Wes Lunt unlikely to play, Crouch needs to show the same poise he did last week after Lunt went down. Crouch threw for 157 yards on 12-of-18 passing and ran for 151 yards and two scores against Purdue. He has a chance to steal Lunt’s starting job with a couple of impressive starts.

Neither team is good, but the lack of confidence Rutgers has after the past two weeks gives the edge to Illinois. Besides, there is nothing to suggest that the Scarlet Knights know how to fix their offense without Grant.

Prediction: Illinois 34 Rutgers 20

Mandatory Credit: Matthew O

Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Maryland Terrapins (-6.5)

After starting the season with four straight wins, Maryland was finally tested with a game at Penn State. They fell 38-14, making it evident that they still have work to do. That being said, Maryland is clearly a lot better than in years past, and Minnesota is coming off their second straight loss.

The Golden Gophers will be without quarterback Mitch Leidner this week, forcing Conor Rhoda to step in under center. Rhoda has only attempted two pass attempts in his career, therefore there is a lot of uncertainty at the quarterback position this week for Minnesota. A week removed from eight costly penalties, and Leidner completing 13-of-33 passes, the Gophers have to be worried about what’s in store for Rhoda.

They’ll try to run the ball with Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks after seeing Saquon Barkley torch the Terrapins’ defense for 202 yards and a score on 31 carries. That being said, Minnesota can’t shoot themselves in the foot again this week and force themselves into passing situations. Also, Maryland has not been a terrible run defense this year.

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Barkley is one of the best running backs in the nation, so it makes sense why he found a way to beat the Maryland defense, but the Terrapins have only given up 3.9 yards per carry in 2016. In fact, they held three of their first four opponents to under four yards per rush.

Maryland is still a mystery, though. Their defense still ranks 12th in the nation in points allowed per game, however their first decent opponent, Penn State, scored 38 points against them. Whether Maryland is for real or a product of a weak early season schedule is still yet to be seen.

Although, if Maryland quarterback Perry Hills is able to suit up, there is no reason the Terrapins shouldn’t win. Minnesota has an inexperienced quarterback, the Terrapins run games has dominated all year, and they’re at home. This game will be closer than people think, though.

Prediction: Maryland 28 Minnesota 24

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10 Nebraska Cornhuskers (-3) @ Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana’s 24-21 victory over Michigan State is not a fluke. The Hoosiers aren’t a top-25 team, but they’re a lot better than people thought they would be and continue to be vastly underrated. Sure, they lost to Ohio State by three touchdowns, but Indiana only trailed by seven points late in the third quarter.

Nebraska probably didn’t think much about Indiana prior to the season, although their bye week last Saturday happened to be a blessing in disguise. They enter this week’s matchup with Hoosiers refreshed and with an extra week of game planning against them. Plus, Indiana is coming off a hard-fought game against the second ranked team in the nation a week ago.

Indiana will catch a couple of breaks, though. Nebraska’s leading rusher, Devine Ozigbo, and leading receiver, Jordan Westerkamp, will both be sidelined with an injury. That’s a big loss for the 34th ranked offense in the nation. Although, it does make this game a lot more interesting.

Nebraska has yet to face this type of adversity in 2016, so seeing how Tommy Armstrong Jr responds will be a big factor. The Cornhuskers need him to play like the star he’s become this season to beat Indiana. He will have to make even more plays with his legs and can’t turn the ball over.

On the other side of the ball, Indiana quarterback Richard Lagow has to protect the ball. He threw his seventh interception of the season a week ago and is now taking on another very good secondary. Nebraska has intercepted nine passes this season, including four players with two.

Both teams want to run the ball, though, and Indiana will likely rely on running back Devine Redding most of the game. Redding has averaged 4.7 yards per carry but has yet to find the end zone. This would be a huge week for the back to record his first rushing touchdown of 2016.

Nebraska has a lot to overcome this week. If Indiana doesn’t show signs of fatigue after a hard-fought game a week ago then they have a solid chance of pulling off the upset at home. Although, Armstrong has been too good this year and it seems like this is Nebraska’s year.

Prediction: Nebraska 28 Indiana 27

Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

Northwestern Wildcats @ Michigan State Spartans (-7)

This game was a potential top-25 matchup at the start of the year. Instead, it features two teams with losing records looking to get back on track and find a way to six wins. Although, both teams are in very different positions in their decline.

Michigan State is coming off their third straight loss after falling to BYU by 17. It adds to a very unimpressive season. Their 15-point win over Furman in week one didn’t come in impressive fashion, although they defeated a then top-25 team in Notre Dame handily, but a blowout loss to Wisconsin sent them in an uncontrollable spiral downwards.

On the other hand, Northwestern started the season 0-2, which included a loss to FCS Illinois State, but their fortune has seemed to change over the past couple of weeks. They beat a respectable Duke team, played Nebraska tough, and then took down the Iowa Hawkeyes in Iowa City. They seem to have things back on track, and a win over the Spartans this week would confirm it.

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It’s a hard game to predict and get a grasp on because everyone expected both teams to be a lot better, and everyone is waiting for each of them to revert back to normality. Michigan State ranks outside the top-55 in both points per game and points allowed per game, very uncharacteristic marks for a Mark Dantonio coached team.

Even though it’s very unlike Michigan State, it’s how well they’ve played up to this point. Tyler O’Connor has not looked sharp, L.J. Scott is averaging just 4.4 yards per carry, and the defense only has four sacks on the year. Now, they take on star running back Justin Jackson and star receiver Austin Carr, who has an improving Clayton Thorson throwing him the ball.

The Spartans are 1-2 at home this year and haven’t looked good the past three weeks. Trusting Clayton Thorson is a dangerous act, but is it more dangerous than trusting Tyler O’Connor? A seven-point spread is awfully big, especially with Riley Bullough questionable to play.

Neither team is good right now. But both have the potential to be good teams at the end of the season. Will this be the week one of them finally figures it out?

Prediction: Northwestern 28 Michigan State 27

Oct 1, 2016; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; Wisconsin Badgers safety D

2 Ohio State Buckeyes (-11) @ 8 Wisconsin Badgers

The game everyone will tune into on Saturday night is between two top-10 teams from the Big Ten. Both teams own great defenses, therefore this could turn into another battle of defenses like Wisconsin forced Michigan into.

The Badgers only managed seven points against Michigan in their last game. Despite their defense holding one of the best offenses in the nation to 14 points, the Badgers’ offense didn’t do enough. Alex Hornibrook and Bart Houston have both struggled this year, putting even more pressure on Corey Clement.

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It works against mediocre competition, however there’s a reason Clement is averaging a mere 3.9 yards per carry on the ground. Clement is a good running back, although defenses hone in on stopping him knowing the struggles Wisconsin’s quarterbacks have had in 2016. Michigan shut Clement down and held Hornibrook to a 36 percent completion percentage.

Now, the Badgers will have to try to crack another tough defense. Ohio State ranks third in the nation in points allowed per game. The Buckeyes have only given up more than 20 points once this season — #14 Oklahoma Sooners scored 24 points. The Buckeyes hold teams to 2.8 yards per carry and quarterbacks only complete 46.1 percent of passes against them.

As tough as Wisconsin’s defense has been this season, they won’t be able to stop J.T. Barrett, Mike Weber and Curtis Samuel all game. At some point the Badgers will need to score, and that’s not a guarantee against the Buckeyes’ stifling defense. Unless Hornibrook steps up and forces Ohio State to respect the pass, Wisconsin will have a hard time gaining first downs, let alone finding the end zone.

In the end, Wisconsin’s defense is as good as they come. They can stop Ohio State’s explosive offense for a quarter and maybe even a half. Although, there’s no stopping Barrett for 60 minutes. Ohio State and Wisconsin will start close, but Ohio State will run away with it if Wisconsin doesn’t find a solution on offense.

Prediction: Ohio State 24 Wisconsin 7

Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

Iowa Hawkeyes (-11.5) @ Purdue Boilermakers

Iowa enters the week as the biggest favorite in the Big Ten. Despite their recent mishaps and struggles, the Hawkeyes take on a Purdue team who lost to Maryland by 43 points and barely squeaked out a victory at Illinois a week ago.

The Boilermakers rank outside the top-80 in the nation in both points per game and points allowed per game. Now, they’ll have to find a way to replace leading receiver Domonique Young who is out this week. Young leads the team in receptions and receiving yards, and he could have had a big day against the Hawkeyes.

Iowa’s secondary is coming off a very impressive showing against Minnesota. They effectively shut down Mitch Leidner and Drew Wolitarsky. Although, the Hawkeyes have had a tough time stopping teams’ top options this year. While Purdue still has Deangelo Yancey, who has 22 catches in 2016, and starting running back Markell Jones returns, Iowa will have more freedom to pressure the quarterback with Young out.

The constant pressure on Leidner resulted in three turnovers and two sacks a week ago. The Hawkeyes will now take on the NCAA leader in interceptions, David Blough. In 2016, Blough has thrown nine interceptions, including five in one game against Cincinnati.

Whether it’s a high or low scoring game, Iowa should win. Their defense has consistently done enough every game this season to give the offense a chance to win. Purdue ranks a measly 93rd in the nation in points allowed per game, so this could be the game Iowa’s offense gets going.

Iowa has only scored 14 points in two of their last three games. Establishing a ground game with LeShun Daniels Jr and Akrum Wadley will be important against a defense allowing 5.6 yards per carry. It will set up the play action, as well as creating more receiving opportunities for tight end George Kittle.

Riley McCarron has emerged as C.J. Beathard‘s favorite target since Matt VandeBerg went down. While Kittle is still helping with effective blocking, he has become non-existent in the passing game as of late.

Despite the recent struggles, Iowa’s offense should have their way with this Purdue defense. They have a chance to get off to a fast start and put this game away early.

Purdue might be over .500, but they’re not a good team on either side of the ball. The last thing the Hawkeyes need is to be in a close game with the Boilermakers this week. This game should be over quick, but that’s not how Iowa has played recently.

Prediction: Iowa 38 Purdue 10

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