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Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Bold predictions for the Iowa Hawkeyes when they take on Purdue
Iowa football hasn’t done anything bold over the past four weeks. They’ve gone 2-2, barely squeaking out wins, and explosive plays on either side of the ball haven’t been easy to come by. The Iowa Hawkeyes have simply won, and that’s all that counts.
Iowa travels to West Lafayette, Indiana to take on the Purdue Boilermakers this week. Despite the lack of fireworks Iowa has put up as of late, Purdue is a team the Hawkeyes can get their season back on track against.
Purdue has been out-scored 84-38 in two Big Ten games this year, including allowing Maryland to hang 50 on them. If Iowa plays the football that everyone has waited to see from them in 2016, they have a chance to add to their highlight reel this week.
That being said, nothing has come easy for the Hawkeyes this season. They continually try to break out of their season-long slump and hope that the current week is when it will happen. This is the best chance they’ll have the rest of the season to dominate a game from start to finish, though.
Here are three bold predictions for the Hawkeyes when they take the field against Purdue.
Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports
Hawkeyes Score 40+ Points
After averaging 43.5 points per game through the first two weeks of the season, Iowa is averaging a measly 20 points per contest over their past four games. Everything about their offense has taken a step back, but this week the Hawkeyes have the perfect opportunity to be the explosive offense they were at the start of the season.
Despite only scoring 14 points against Rutgers, the Hawkeyes did manage 31 points against a stout Northwestern defense. The ability to channel the offense that averaged 30.9 points per game in 2015 is there, but it hasn’t come out often.
It could emerge this week, though, as Purdue ranks just 94th in the nation in points allowed per game. Teams average 30.9 points per game against them, in fact, the Boilermakers have only held one team to under 20 points this season. They allowed Eastern Kentucky to score 24 points against them in West Lafayette, as well as giving up 30-plus points in each of the past two weeks.
The biggest problem Iowa has faced this season on offense is sustaining drives. The Hawkeyes find ways to halt their drives before even getting into field goal range. Last week, Iowa came away with no points on four drives that lasted longer than three minutes. Even though the Hawkeyes finally won the time of possession battle, the offense still couldn’t find a way to score on long drives.
It took a 54-yard touchdown run by Akrum Wadley to finally score a touchdown. Big plays have been how Iowa has scored a lot of their touchdowns lately. The Hawkeyes have four touchdowns of 25-plus yards in the last four weeks. The big play ability that Wadley and LeShun Daniels Jr possess is good to have, but it’s not safe to heavily rely on big plays.
Sure, the Hawkeyes will need a couple of plays to reach 40 points, although sustaining drives and moving the ball down the field effectively is how Iowa will score most of their points. Despite their struggle in that area, Purdue’s defense has not offered much resistance this season.
Teams are averaging 6.6 yards per pass attempt and completing 59.9 percent of passes against them. The Hawkeyes have a chance to have a couple of big plays with Jerminic Smith, although establishing a ground game and gaining first downs with George Kittle and Riley McCarron is the key for the Hawkeyes to return to the level of play they showed during the first two weeks.
Purdue is the worst defense Iowa has faced since Iowa State in week two. Therefore a solid offensive showing wouldn’t be surprising for a team who dominated two weaker opponents to start the year.
Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports
Defense Forces 4 Turnovers
Bend but don’t break doesn’t work forever. It became evident when Iowa fell to Northwestern 38-31, although the defense responded with an impressive showing a week ago at Minnesota. This week, the Hawkeyes take on an offense that is committing 2.6 turnovers per game and has multiple turnovers in three of their five contests.
Iowa forced 10 turnovers in the first half of the season and is coming off a game in which they forced three turnovers. Despite owning the 2015 Big Ten leader in interceptions, Desmond King, Iowa has found more success forcing turnovers in another way. The Hawkeyes have eight forced fumbles, recovering six, compared to just four interceptions.
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That being said, a consistent pass rush last week helped the secondary. It forced Mitch Leidner into bad throws, and the secondary stepped up with air tight coverage. In fact, sophomore safety Brandon Snyder accounted for two turnovers — interception and fumble recovery. That marked the fourth straight game that Snyder had a part of a turnover.
Purdue’s quarterback David Blough will take on Iowa’s tough secondary without his top receiver in Domonique Young this week. The Boilermakers do return their starting running back Markell Jones, although there is always a chance he re-injures himself or can’t handle as many snaps. Sure, they could run with backup Brian Lankford-Johnson again, but Purdue would have to put more attention to their passing game.
That has been a problem for them this year, though. Blough has an NCAA-high nine interceptions, including five against Cincinnati in week two. This will also be the first time he faces Iowa — Blough only attempted five passes against the Hawkeyes in 2015.
Just like most quarterbacks, Blough will try to pick on Greg Mabin over Desmond King. Leidner tried to test King early in last week’s game, although had no luck and quickly turned away from that idea after nearly throwing a pick-six. That being said, with Young out, King can cover Deangelo Yancey for most of the game and seemingly take away Purdue’s only active receiver with more than 15 catches on the year.
When it comes down to it, King has been close to intercepting his first pass of 2016 many times this year. Teams aren’t testing him, however Blough will eventually have to throw his way if he covers Yancey. The inaccuracy Blough has displayed this year makes this week a real possibility for King’s first pick of the season.
Purdue hasn’t taken care of the ball all season, whether through the air or on the ground, and Iowa’s stout defense will take advantage of that.
Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Akrum Wadley and LeShun Daniels Jr Each Top 100 Rushing Yards
After combining to rush for 365 yards in the first two games, Akrum Wadley and LeShun Daniels Jr have combined to gain a mere 490 yards on the ground over the past four weeks. That means after combining to average 182.5 yards per game against Miami (OH) and Iowa State, the Hawkeyes’ running back duo has only gained 122.5 yards per game since.
There are a lot of factors that have gone into their decline this year, but they have a perfect chance to have breakout games against Purdue. The Boilermakers are giving up 244.2 rushing yards per game on 5.6 yards per carry. Plus, the Boilermakers have given up over 300 rushing yards in each of the past two weeks. Iowa’s struggling offensive line will not have an easier task this season.
A week ago, Purdue allowed backup quarterback Chayce Crouch to rush for 137 yards in less than a full game. At the same time, Illinois backup running back Reggie Corbin gained 92 yards on 8.4 yards per carry. It’s evident that teams don’t just gain yards by pounding the ball the whole game, Purdue is susceptible to giving up big plays.
That fits perfectly into what the Hawkeyes want from their two backs. They have combined to score 11 touchdowns on the ground this year, in which four came on runs longer than 25 yards. Not to mention two 75-yard touchdown runs by Daniels that got called back for questionable penalties.
Also, in a small sample size, both players are averaging more than four yards per carry against Purdue in their respective career. Daniels has two touchdowns and 60 yards on 15 carries, while Wadley ran for 23 yards on four carries a year ago. It’s a very small sample size, but Iowa’s backs have found success against Purdue, nonetheless.
Daniels and Wadley have not each ran for 100 yards in a single game this season. That being said, Iowa will want to pound the ball to establish a ground game and pass less to lower the hits C.J. Beathard takes. Also, if Iowa jumps out to an early lead, the Hawkeyes will continue to pound the ball in the second half to try to run out the clock.
Daniels and Wadley don’t each need 100 yards each for Iowa to win, but they do need to dominate the game. That would mean the offensive line is playing better than a mediocre defensive line, as well as Iowa owning a lead and lessening the hits on Beathard a week before playing Wisconsin.
Daniels and Wadley haven’t reached this feat yet in 2016, but Purdue is no stranger to running backs torching them all game.
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