College Football

Joel Klatt's CFP picks: Notre Dame built for this moment; Ohio State can't be stopped

Updated Jan. 7, 2025 8:22 p.m. ET

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Joel Klatt

Lead College Football Analyst

The College Football Playoff semifinals are here, and I really couldn't be more excited about these games. 

First, seventh-seeded Notre Dame will take on sixth-seeded Penn State in the Orange Bowl on Thursday night. A day later, No. 8 seed Ohio State and No. 5 seed Texas will meet in the Cotton Bowl; I actually predicted those two teams to meet in the national championship game at the start of the season.

I sense that one of these games will be a bit of a tight battle, while the other one might be more decisive. I've got a good track record this season, going 54-33 in my picks against the spread.

The expanded CFP has been incredible to this point. Let's hope these two games continue the excitement. 

Orange Bowl: Notre Dame (-1.5) vs. Penn State (Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET)

One thing that became very obvious in Notre Dame's win over Georgia in the Sugar Bowl is that it's built for the CFP. This is a fast and physical team that's built in the mold of a team that can win a championship. 

I feel like that about Penn State as well, but I feel that way more about Notre Dame. The Irish were fast and physical at the line of scrimmage in the quarterfinals, making it difficult for the Bulldogs to win the battle in the trenches. That's something we would've never said about a Notre Dame-Georgia matchup in the past, but it rang true this season.

It's pretty remarkable what Notre Dame has done through all of its adversity. It lost two starting offensive linemen, two starting edge rushers, All-American cornerback Benjamin Morrison and defensive tackle Rylie Mills during the season. It still has standout safety Xavier Watts, but Notre Dame is playing so well and defeated Georgia relatively handily despite missing those key players. That speaks to the depth that head coach Marcus Freeman has been able to attain and develop. It really is an incredible roster.

Notre Dame's depth will be tested against Penn State. James Franklin has been building toward this moment for years. It wasn't that long ago that it lost handily to Ohio State and Michigan in conference play. It got very close against Ohio State this year and nearly took down Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. 

[Read more: James Franklin, Marcus Freeman set to make college football history, more to come]

Now, Penn State needs to win. The wins over SMU and Boise State were games it should've won. Thursday is a tipping-point game for this program. 

There are health questions on both sides of this game. Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter is the big one. It's questionable whether he'll be able to go or be 100% with that arm/shoulder injury. He must be able to be on the field for Penn State to win. That was evident against Boise State. Carter's impact on the game is felt in a meaningful way because he's such a disruptive force at the line of scrimmage. He plays as a free disruptor, lining up as a linebacker, defensive end and on the inside of the defensive line. That makes it difficult for offenses to get a beat on how to stop him. Carter's presence is such a huge part of Penn State's defensive success in this game as well because of Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard's dual-threat ability.

On the other side, Irish running back Jeremiyah Love is dealing with a knee issue. He's a dynamic back, and I think he might have been even better if Notre Dame had a better passing game. I wasn't confident in Love's ability in the practice clips I saw this week, as he looked clunky with that knee brace on. It looks like he's moving at three-quarters speed and soft on how he's rounding cones and turning cuts. So, I struggle to believe that he'll be as effective as we've grown accustomed to. Love is expected to play, but I thought running back Jadarian Price was effective against Georgia, too. Ohio State and Oregon's running backs were key in its wins over Penn State, so I think Notre Dame is really going to need Love and Price to be effective on Thursday.

I expect Penn State to put a decent amount of pressure on Leonard. Georgia was effective at pressuring Leonard, but I think the quarterback's experience helped Notre Dame early on. Notre Dame's passing game isn't great, though, so that should help Penn State get some pressure.

Flipping the units around, I don't think this is a very good matchup for Penn State. I've asked Franklin in the past what he thinks holds his team back. His answer is consistent, typically saying that Penn State doesn't have that one receiver that it can rely on in a big situation. You typically need that kind of player in the CFP. For Penn State, it's tight end Tyler Warren. If it's a tight end and not a player on the outside, the secondary can focus better on just one guy. Notre Dame's secondary is very good, and that section favors the Irish.

The biggest key for each team will be the ability to slow down the opposing team's run game. Each side needs its run game to really get going, yet both defenses have done a terrific job at stopping the run in the last few games. Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty ran for a season-low 104 yards on 30 carries against Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl. Notre Dame held Indiana and Georgia to less than 65 rushing yards. 

So, when you consider Penn State's strong rushing defense, Notre Dame's blueprint to winning will be to establish Leonard as the run game. Notre Dame was most effective against Georgia when it ran run-pass options, but if Leonard is going to drop back and pass, that'll favor Penn State in a major way. Notre Dame needs to incorporate Leonard within the run game to help make up for a compromised Love. If Leonard can be effective at running the ball early, that will open Notre Dame's ability to effectively use RPOs and throw the ball. 

Defensively, Notre Dame's blueprint will be to take away PSU RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen while doubling Warren. That's the whole game plan. It's an interior game plan. You live with whatever happens outside the numbers. 

Can Notre Dame slow down the Penn State run game?

If either of those things happens, Penn State wins. That's why Penn State's blueprint to win — at least offensively — is the mandate that Franklin gave offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki when he hired him this past offseason: get the ball to the top players, especially in big games. This isn't a game where Penn State can see if players other than Allen, Singleton and Warren can succeed. Penn State can't believe that Drew Allar is going to turn into a consistent drop-back passer at this stage of the season. 

Defensively, Penn State has to force Notre Dame into a situation where Leonard has to drop back and pass. The more second-and-longs Notre Dame faces, the better for Penn State.

Ultimately, I think this game will be tight. So, who do I trust? I trust Freeman and the Fighting Irish more. Situationally, Notre Dame understands how to perform and execute. It also knows its strengths and leans into them. That's my biggest hang-up with Penn State. The Nittany Lions haven't played to their strengths in the biggest moments at times this year.

Pick: Notre Dame 24, Penn State 20 (Notre Dame -1.5)

Cotton Bowl: Ohio State (-5.5) vs. Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Ohio State is playing the best football in the country and the spread in this game is indicative of that, as this matchup is being played in the heart of Texas. In fact, I think the fact that this game is being played in Arlington is keeping this line low. That's how good the Buckeyes have been lately.

I believe this game will be almost won or lost in the first quarter. Ohio State has the ability and mindset to turn into the same way it defeated Tennessee and Oregon. So, Texas' No. 1 goal has to be to survive the first quarter. Texas has to be prepared for the onslaught and aggressiveness Ohio State will open with in order to win this game. 

Ohio State's defense has been strong. The only success that Tennessee and Oregon had offensively was eluding its pass rush and connecting with secondary options on passing plays. Neither team found success via its base offense. 

Offensively, Ohio State has found success by being aggressive in the passing game early this postseason, attacking in space to take commanding early leads. That has allowed it to have success in the running game later. Ohio State has abandoned the zone run game that we're used to seeing from head coach Ryan Day run because it doesn't have the offensive line to do that. Neither of those things is the best thing that's going on for Ohio State. It has totally changed psychologically, playing more freely and easily after its loss to Michigan. It's playing loose and with a bit of anger for the duration of the last two games. 

As for Texas, I've loved this group for quite a while. I've thought it could win the national title ever since its blowout win at Michigan. Steve Sarkisian is building something great at Texas, as this team looks to compete for national titles beyond 2024, but there are some issues with this particular Texas team. Those issues pop up when Texas goes up against a team that can beat its offensive line. Georgia did that a couple of times, as did Arizona State. That's where the problem lies for Texas. Ohio State's run defense is top five in the country, and I think it's better than Georgia and Arizona State. That Ohio State defense has played incredibly well in the CFP, too. The Buckeyes had eight sacks and 13 tackles for loss in their Rose Bowl win.

When Texas' run game is taken away, the dynamic nature of its play selection changes. Instead of being able to use play-action, QB Quinn Ewers has to put on his cape. He was able to do that against Arizona State, but he couldn't do that against Georgia. Ohio State has taken away its opposing quarterbacks' first read, which would make Ewers hold the ball longer for an extra beat and make it even more difficult for him to put his cape on and have success.

Will Ohio State’s defense stop Texas & Quinn Ewers?

This Ohio State offense cannot be stopped. The marriage of Day and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly's offensive styles has been beautiful. You've got to be disruptive as a defense, and you have to hope QB Will Howard plays the way he did against Michigan and not the way he has the past two games. Howard's film from the Rose Bowl was the best film he has ever put out. I feel like Howard's play in the CFP — throwing five touchdowns over the two games, as he's connected with Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka for big plays — has been one of the more under-discussed storylines so far this postseason.

I don't see Ohio State taking its foot off the gas, and Texas hasn't looked like its full self in the back half of the year. The dominoes that have to fall in Texas' favor are too many and there are many paths to victory for Ohio State. If Ohio State continues to play the way it has played, it should win this game. 

Pick: Ohio State 35, Texas 21 (Ohio State -5.5)

Joel Klatt is FOX Sports' lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast "The Joel Klatt Show." Follow him at @joelklatt and subscribe to the "Joel Klatt Show" on YouTube.

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