College Football

Kentucky Football: How To Defeat New Mexico State Aggies

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 1:22 a.m. ET

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The Kentucky football program is deep in must-win territory in Week 3. What will the keys be to defeating the New Mexico State Aggies?

Entering the 2016 college football season, the optimistic take on the Kentucky football program was that Week 3 would present it with an opportunity to get above .500. Instead, the Kentucky Wildcats will enter Saturday’s game at 0-2.

Though the Wildcats are heavily favored to win the clash with the New Mexico State Aggies, absolutely nothing is guaranteed.

Kentucky blew a 35-10 lead over the Southern Miss Golden Eagles during the season opener. It allowed 34 unanswered points as Nick Mullens, Ito Smith, and George Payne led the Golden Eagles to a 44-35 victory.

That home loss was followed by an indescribably brutal 45-7 loss to the bitter rival Florida Gators—the 30th consecutive loss to the crew from Gainesville.

With the program reeling, head coach Mark Stoops is hopeful that his Wildcats can recover with a victory over New Mexico State. The Aggies are currently 1-1, but Kentucky is the heavily-favored team in this affair.

The question is: what must Kentucky do to end the losing streak and finally secure its first victory of the 2016 season?

Sep 10, 2016; Gainesville, FL, USA; Kentucky Wildcats cornerback Derrick Baity (29) is congratulated by safety Mike Edwards (27) after he intercepted the ball against the Florida Gators during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

5. Creating Turnovers

The Kentucky football team has a rare opportunity to exploit a lackluster passing attack. Tyler Rogers of the New Mexico State Aggies isn’t a bad quarterback, but he’s the very definition of a turnover-prone player.

If the Kentucky Wildcats hope to avoid an 0-3 start, the defense must give the offense ideal field position early and often.

J.D. Harmon with a spectacular one handed interception. #BBN @UKAthletics pic.twitter.com/0QRapa3277

— Scott Charlton (@Scott_Charlton) September 4, 2016

The key to the Wildcats’ success in the first half against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles wasn’t just offensive execution. Kentucky did an outstanding job of creating turnovers, which thus set the tone for the offense.

J.D. Harmon had two interceptions and Blake McClain had another—and that’s the type of defensive playmaking Kentucky needs in Week 3.

The Wildcats don’t necessarily need interceptions, but they need to limit the progress that New Mexico State makes offensively. The quicker it comes off the field in the first half, the more energy it’ll have in the second.

Defense has always been a war of attrition in football. The less time Kentucky’s defense spends on the field, the better.

Sep 10, 2016; Gainesville, FL, USA; Florida Gators defensive lineman Jachai Polite (99) forces Kentucky Wildcats quarterback Stephen Johnson (15) to fumble the ball during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Florida Gators defeated the Kentucky Wildcats 45-7. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

4. Winning Third Down

One of the most crucial aspects of a college football game is being able to consistently move the chains. Tied with that goal is preventing the opposition from being able to consistency move the chains.

The Kentucky football program has failed in both regards, which makes winning the third downs a crucial endeavor.

Against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles, the Kentucky Wildcats were 3-of-9 on third downs—33.3 percent. Southern Miss, meanwhile, was 9-of-17 on third downs—an overwhelmingly efficient 52.9 percent.

If the Wildcats want to snap this two-game 2016 losing streak, then they must flip those numbers against the New Mexico State Aggies.

Against Florida, Kentucky went 4-of-12 on third downs—once again, 33.3 percent. Florida was almost perfect on third downs, going 14-of-20—an absolutely unforgivable conversion rate of 70.0 percent.

Executing on third downs—as well as preventing the opposition from doing so—is the key to success for the Wildcats in Week 3.

Sep 10, 2016; Gainesville, FL, USA;Kentucky Wildcats running back Jojo Kemp (3) runs with the ball against the Florida Gators during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Florida Gators defeated the Kentucky Wildcats 45-7. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

3. Establish The Run

The Kentucky Wildcats have one of the most dynamic running games in the country. Stanley Boom Williams and Jojo Kemp are both capable of going off at any given moment, and there’s no better moment than this.

With Drew Barker needing to find his confidence again, Williams and Kemp must exploit what’s been an atrocious run defense through two weeks.

The New Mexico State Aggies allowed the UTEP Miners to run for 289 yards and two touchdowns during the first week of the 2016 season. The Aggies then allowed the New Mexico Lobos to run for 221 yards and four touchdowns.

If ever there were a game for Kentucky to pound the rock, the Week 3 clash with New Mexico State would be the one.

Through two games, Williams has run for 160 carries on 25 carries, which comes out to 6.4 yards per carry. Kemp has run for just 20 yards on 13 carries, but he has two rushing touchdowns through two games.

Kentucky needs to give Williams far more than the 12 and 13 carries he’s had against Southern Miss and Florida, and Kemp needs to establish himself as a down-by-down presence.

Sep 3, 2016; Lexington, KY, USA; Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles running back George Payne (24) runs the ball against Kentucky Wildcats linebacker Jordan Jones (34) in the second half at Commonwealth Stadium. Southern Mississippi defeated Kentucky 44-35. Mandatory Credit: Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

2. Defend The Run

There’s a sense of optimism as it pertains to the pass defense turning things around in 2016. Not as much faith is being placed in a run defense that’s allowed at least 200 yards in each of the first two games.

The New Mexico State Aggies lack an elite running game, but if the first two weeks are a sign of things to come, Kentucky needs at least one outing during which it stops the run.

Kentucky allowed 262 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles. Two players, Ito Smith with 173 and George Payne with 100, picked up at least 100 yards on the ground.

Southern Miss quarterback Nick Mullens also ran for two touchdowns, thus exposing Kentucky near the goal line.

In Week 2, Florida Gators running back Lamical Perine ran for 105 yards on 17 carries. Mark Thompson ran for 59 yards and a touchdown, Jordan Scarlett picked up 43 yards and a touchdown, and Florida ran for 244 yards total.

Against New Mexico State and all other opponents, Kentucky must find stability against the run.

Sep 10, 2016; Gainesville, FL, USA;Kentucky Wildcats quarterback Drew Barker (7) throws the ball as Florida Gators defensive lineman Bryan Cox (94) rushes during the first half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

1. Helping Drew Barker

If only for two quarters against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles, Drew Barker looked like the next great Kentucky Wildcats quarterback. He threw four touchdowns in the first half, thus giving Big Blue Nation a rare reason for optimism.

In the six quarters that have followed, Barker has zero touchdowns, four interceptions, and an extensive period of play that suggests he’s not the right starter.

Barker completed just 20 percent of his passes against the Florida Gators. He threw more interceptions, three, than completions, two, in what was one of the worst and most inefficient performances in Kentucky history.

The New Mexico State Aggies aren’t exactly an elite defense team, however, which opens the door for Barker to find his rhythm.

If the Wildcats establish the run, then the chains will move and Barker’s job will become significantly easier. The other key will be for Barker to trust his receivers and find them on short to intermediate routes.

With speedy options to get the ball to in Jeff Badet, Garrett Johnson, and Tavin Richardson, as well as big targets in C.J. Conrad and Kayaune Ross, Barker should trust his receivers.

If Kentucky executes in these five phases, it will secure an elusive first win.