TCU Horned Frogs

Mailbag: How to balance your 'Bama fatigue with 'Bama facts

Published Nov. 25, 2015 12:17 p.m. ET

Stewart Mandel

For the better part of a decade, the Mailbag made its money in November off all the mountains and mountains of BCS angst. Unfortunately it feels like we've lost that degree of fury with the selection committee rankings. I'm not sensing anger so much as resigned bewilderment at some of Jeff Long's notoriously selective rationale.

Hi, Stewart. Why is Alabama getting so much love from the sportswriters and the committee as opposed to other one-loss teams and undefeated Iowa? It is very possible that after the conference championship games, Alabama will have played only one top 25 team and lost that one at home.

-- Bart Miller, Athens, Ala.

I get that much of the country suffers from 'Bama fatigue. I get that there's a large contingent of the public that believes any positive word I write about the Tide is due entirely to #BIAS. And I get that many people in Ohio view last year's semifinal as definitive proof that the same thing would happen again if Alabama makes this year's playoff.

So I knew when I saw the latest rankings that the " ... but who have they beat???" crowd would come out in spades, because sure enough, Alabama is now down to just one Top 25 win -- against No. 21 Mississippi State.

Look, there are plenty of metrics that will tell you Alabama has in fact played one of the toughest schedules in the country, even with last week's Charleston Southern game included. Their FBS opponents are a combined 67-40 (.626). No other contender's is even .600. They've played nine teams with winning records, also higher than any contender. Iowa, by contrast, has played three. And most impressively of all, the Tide have played six teams that are currently 7-3 or better. They lost one of those games, to Ole Miss, but the five wins have come by an average margin of 20.6 points.

But I also can't deny that the Tide lack a marquee win like Michigan State's last week at Ohio State, or Clemson's over Notre Dame, or Oklahoma's at Baylor. We thought they had one at the time against LSU, but the Tigers have gone in the tank. Ditto Georgia. Or Texas A&M. 'Bama fans will tell you that's because the Tide broke those teams' spirits; I'd say it's more that they all turned out to be good but not great.

So it's entirely possible that we're all overrating the Tide, and that once they do run into a legit Top 4 team on Dec. 31, they'll get exposed. But it's not like this is all based purely on hype or potential, as turned out to be the case with Ohio State. Alabama played a tougher schedule than any other contender, and its only flaw is a six-point loss to a Top 20 team. That's not too shabby.

I'm trying to understand the committee's rationale on injuries. Jeff Long notes that Oklahoma was "in control" of the TCU game when Baker Mayfield came out. Are we just going to ignore that TCU was without Trevone Boykin and Josh Doctson? Would TCU even be a .500 team without Boykin and Doctson? It certainly seems like it takes a heavy amount of cognitive dissonance to act like that's a huge win vaulting Oklahoma a whole bunch of spots.

-- John, New York

Yeah, he was all over the map on that one. Oklahoma posted a great win over a TCU team that was a shell of its former self. Yes, it came down to a two-point conversion at the end, but if they'd stopped the game at halftime, then it would have been a blowout! Mayfield being out "had an impact" on the fact that TCU was able to come back, but Boykin and Doctson had no impact on the fact OU was able to pull away in the first place.

Ultimately, I believe all of that was basically a smoke screen. The fact is, Oklahoma has been playing like a top four team for six games now. All the power ratings have the Sooners in the top three. Statistically, they're the only team in the country ranked in the top 12 nationally in both total offense and total defense. I'm guessing much of the committee was already sold after the Baylor game, but, given the Texas loss, they needed to see a second Top 25 win before they could justify bumping the Sooners all the way up. As such, it probably would not have mattered how the game played out so long as Oklahoma won.

I agree, by the way. Not that this should be one of the criteria, but I would pick Clemson, Alabama and Oklahoma to beat any other team in the country if they played next week. I believe those three are in a class of their own. And I say that knowing full well that Oklahoma State could make me look really stupid come Saturday.

How the hell did Oklahoma jump Iowa? They lost to Texas ... TEXAS!!!!!!!!!

-- Marshall Adam Pike, Houston

It's amusing to think that the equivalent to this e-mail just six years ago would have been, "They lost to Baylor ... Baylor!!!!!!"

Stewart, I continue to be shocked that LSU fans/boosters want Les Miles fired. You mentioned in your Forward Pass column this week that LSU would risk becoming the next Tennessee or Nebraska if they fire Les. My question is, isn't this much worse than these other situations? Phillip Fulmer went 39-24 during his last five years. Bo Pelini went 47-19 during his last five years at Nebraska. If LSU beats Texas A&M this week, he will have gone 49-15 (!!) over the last five years in the toughest division in college football.

-- Brett, Salt Lake City

Just to be clear, I was referring to Nebraska firing Frank Solich, a .753 coach, two years after taking the 'Huskers to the national title game. The 'Huskers still have not recovered. And I predict much the same fate for LSU if it fires Miles and fails to land Jimbo Fisher or an equivalent rock star.

As this story continues to develop, a few things have become clear to me: 1) College football fans nationally hold Miles in higher regard than LSU's own fans, and probably have since he got there. 2) LSU fans are by no means unanimously anti-Les. There will be many mixed emotions come Sunday. 3) The fat-cat boosters driving this decision are not nearly as ambivalent. They're tired of losing to Nick Saban, tired of watching the same uninspiring offense and will pay seemingly any amount of money in a reckless attempt to change that.

All of which has turned this into the strangest and most infuriating coaching ouster I've seen in at least a decade.

Spoiled LSU fans complaining that the program has regressed since the 2011 season sound a lot like annoying Yelp reviewers who give a restaurant two stars for being noisy. There's been no 5-7-type crater like the one that signaled the beginning of the end for Mack Brown at Texas (and even then he lasted another three years.) There's been no rock-bottom loss like Florida's to Georgia Southern that marked the point of no return for Will Muschamp (and even he lasted another year). It feels like LSU pressed the fast-forward button right past the customary steps -- votes of confidence, a staff shakeup, another year to see whether he can right the ship -- normally afforded a coach who's done as much for a school as Miles has for LSU. At the first hint of mediocrity, he's toast.

Miles is basically enduring a public execution for losing three games. Keep in mind, six of the seven teams in the SEC West have lost at least three games. Maybe they should all fire their coaches. Should LSU fans expect better? Absolutely. Is Miles' continued inability to develop competent quarterbacks troubling? You bet. But from the level of vitriol coming out of Louisiana, you would think the Tigers are 3-7, not 7-3. It's just baffling how quickly he went from perfectly secure in his job to dead man walking.

End of day, many at LSU never embraced Miles simply for not being Saban, and now they're going to fire him for not being Saban. The funny thing is, that potential 49-15 five-year record you cited is actually one game better than Saban's own 48-16 record in five seasons at LSU.

Puts it in a little bit of perspective.

Stewart, as an FSU fan, should I be concerned with LSU snagging Jimbo away?! One of the issues I've heard with LSU is "development of the QB position." Jimbo's track record with QBs is highly touted, plus he has a connection to the Bayou Bengals.

Stay in Tally, Jimbo!!!

-- Adam, St. Louis

If I were you, I'd be somewhere north of "mildly" and south of "alarmingly" on the scale of concern.

Fisher spent seven seasons at LSU spanning two different head coaches. He obviously has an affinity for the place. He's modeled FSU in every way to emulate a top-flight SEC program. I know he's been frustrated at times with various issues at FSU. For instance, despite all the 'Noles' recent dominance, they've averaged 73,219 attendance this season at 82,000-seat Doak Campbell Stadium. Last year's playoff race, in which his undefeated team fell as low as No. 4 in the committee rankings, raised concern about the lack of respect nationally for the ACC. There's also a growing financial discrepancy between the SEC and the ACC.

All that being said, he's got a pretty nice setup there. FSU pays him more ($5.15 million per year) than all but four schools in the country. His staff is well compensated. He's able to bring in Top 5 recruiting classes, and he's got a more navigable path to the playoff in any given year coming from the ACC Atlantic than he would competing in the SEC West. There's not much LSU can offer him that FSU can't, other than the prestige of competing in that conference and matching wits with Saban. Of course, that could also be a negative, too, depending on how Fisher feels about butting heads with his former boss and mentor.

There's also one more factor at play, but I wouldn't pretend to know what effect it would have. Fisher announced last summer that he and his wife of 22 years are going through a divorce. They have two children, one of whom, Ethan, suffers from Fanconi anemia. Fisher is not a football coach operating in a vacuum.

If I were a betting man, I'd put better odds on Fisher ultimately getting a big raise out of all of this than actually moving to Baton Rouge, but neither outcome would surprise me.

Stewart, I've been following LSU football closely for the last 15 years. I understand the success Miles has had at LSU and realize the risk it would be to let him go, but I'm one of the fans who thinks it is time for a change. Should LSU fans be content with 4-4 and 5-3 SEC seasons because it's unrealistic to expect more, or are we wrong for thinking that Miles won't turn LSU into a national contender again? Jimbo Fisher, if the administration could get him, would definitely be an upgrade and would bring new life to the program.

-- Jimmy Dunphy

And what happens if you don't get Jimbo Fisher?

I don't think you have to be content with 4-4 and 5-3 seasons, but there's a real risk that next coach could fall to 3-5 or 2-6. Since you've only been following the program for 15 years, you may be surprised to learn that LSU won 10 games in a season three times from 1960 to 2000. It's not a place you can expect the coach to blow his whistle and automatically contend for national titles.

But even if I agreed that Miles' chances of a turnaround were hopeless (I don't) and that a change is necessary, there are better ways to handle it than boosters and board members openly plotting his ouster while a spineless AD, Joe Alleva, goes into hibernation. Not even one generic "we'll wait until after the season to evaluate" or "our focus is on supporting these coaches and players against A&M?" It's reprehensible to treat someone so callously.

You're certainly right about Tennessee and Nebraska. But this unbelievably high-paid coaching staff is doing a pathetic job with the myriad of talent they have. LSU looks like a bunch of discombobulated clowns. They're as undisciplined, sloppy and not on the same page as any team in college football. I've been going to LSU games since 1964. This is the most poorly coached team in college football, and Miles needs to get the hell out.

-- Kirk Pareti

As I was saying ...

If Navy works its way into a major New Year's bowl as the Group of 5 champion, will Keenan Reynolds get at least an invite to New York for the Heisman?

-- Kerry Ryan, Denver

If Navy wins these next two games, there's going to be a serious push for Reynolds. He's a great player and an even better story. Most notably, he embodies what the Heisman ostensibly stands for -- "the pursuit of excellence with integrity." While his competitors for the award all have NFL futures ahead of them, Reynolds will soon go to service for our country. Just last week he tweeted his excitement at getting his top choice of assignment, Information Warfare -- which makes me feel incredibly uncomfortable/downright unpatriotic to write my honest opinion about his Heisman candidacy.

We as voters get three spots to fill on our ballot, and I can't reasonably justify Reynolds as one of the three best players in all of college football. He's an option quarterback who completes 48.5 percent of his passes and runs for about 100 yards per game. The most common case for Reynolds is his remarkable career achievements -- setting the NCAA career rushing touchdowns record, leading Navy to 30 wins and counting -- but the Heisman ceased being a career achievement reward at least a decade ago. Reynolds' advocates are basically asking us to turn back the clock.

His best hope is that enough old-guard voters still take that mentality and he gets enough votes to be in the top five. The Heisman people decide based on the vote distribution how many finalists to invite to New York, and if Reynolds is in the mix at all, I'd assume they would love to invite such a model representative.

Stewart, I desperately need your advice. This Les Miles buyout represents everything wrong in the world right now. Since I'll be giving up college football if this thing happens, how do you suggest I spend my future Saturdays? I'm thinking knitting or cake decorating but can't decide.

-- James Beneda, Santa Cruz, Calif.

You live in Santa Cruz. Go surfing.

Oregon's dynasty was over. Now it's seemingly back with vintage Oregon performances thanks to a healthy Vernon Adams. So was Oregon's long-term demise just a knee-jerk reaction to bad QB play and a young defense?

-- Bob Rodgers, Oregon

Just imagine if Mark Helfrich coached at LSU. He wouldn't have made it through the season.

There were definitely a lot of knee-jerk reactions. Mine were always tied to the defense's severe regression under second-year coordinator Don Pellum. While I couldn't have foreseen Adams returning and playing at this high a level -- 81 percent completions and eight touchdowns in wins over Stanford and USC -- I'd seen enough of him both in his Pac-12 starts at Eastern Washington and his first couple of games this season to know how well he fit the Ducks' offense. I also knew there was a reason Oregon wanted him so badly, which we saw play out in the four games he missed. That of course leads us to wonder where Oregon will be with its returning quarterbacks next season.

As for the defense, inexperience certainly played a factor early, but it's not like Oregon has morphed into a defensive juggernaut either. It's still 101st in the country in yards per play allowed (6.0). So even if the Ducks beat Oregon State and win their bowl game to finish with an eighth-straight double-digit-win season, Helfrich may still have some tough decisions to make over the offseason about that side of the ball. It's been trending in the wrong direction for some time.

Is it "stuffing" or "dressing?"

-- Crawford Clay, Stafford, Va.

Stuffing. Definitely stuffing. And I hope you all get to enjoy some Thursday.

Happy Thanksgiving.