Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Mandel's Mailbag: How playoff committee could wind up with big headaches

Published Sep. 16, 2015 8:00 a.m. ET

Stewart Mandel

The advent of the playoff has obviously changed college football in a myriad of ways, and the Mailbag is not immune. Longtime readers know well my stubborn refusal to entertain hypothetical doomsday BCS scenarios -- like perennial favorite, "What if these seven teams all finish undefeated?" -- before about late October.

For whatever reason, though, I've got no such problem going down the potential-selection-committee-headaches-road after just two weeks.

You bring up an interesting scenario with the Big Ten having a shot at two playoff teams should Michigan State lose a close one at Ohio State and finish 11-1. But what if the Spartans were to win in Columbus? Without a similar marquee win as Michigan State's over Oregon, would the Buckeyes be similarly deserving as a non-division winner?

--Kelly, Tuscaloosa, Ala.

Last year we saw how much the selection committee values a conference title. But how will that compare with a head-to-head result like Michigan State over Oregon? Say Michigan State finishes 11-1, while the Ducks go 12-1. Same number of losses, and the head-to-head favors the Spartans, but the Ducks have more wins and a conference championship. It would be an odd side effect of the system if a bad loss to an unranked team (like 2014 Ohio State to Virginia Tech) is easier to erase than a loss to another team vying for a playoff spot.

--Vince, Washington, D.C.

I'll answer the first one quite succinctly: How do you know Virginia Tech won't have as good or better a season as Oregon?

The head-to-head question is a fascinating one. We learned last year that while the committee does definitely pay heed to such a result, it doesn't necessarily top the list, either. Not until TCU and Baylor had completed their entire schedules, and played all nine common conference foes, did the committee finally see fit to elevate the Bears over the Horned Frogs -- which tells me they don't ignore head-to-head, obviously, but they put much more stock in teams' larger bodies of work.

Knowing that, it seems almost certain that 12-1 Pac-12 champion Oregon would be higher than 11-1 non-Big Ten champion Michigan State -- especially since the Ducks are likely to beat more ranked teams during conference play than the Spartans. The far trickier proposition would be the same scenario but with Oregon 11-2. In fact, I'd be curious how the public would come down on that one, because if there's one thing the majority of you have made abundantly clear, it's that you strongly prefer a playoff field comprised entirely of conference champs.

But in this case, said champ would have lost to one of the other contenders and have a worse record. Does the nod then go to Michigan State, or does "scoreboard" trump those factors? Does the fact that Ducks QB Vernon Adams apparently played that night with a broken finger come into the equation if he goes on to have an amazing season once healthy?

Chances are this will all be moot. For one thing, as Kelly suggested, who's to say Michigan State won't itself be a conference champion?

How could anybody possibly consider Mack Brown for AD at Texas? His stupid decisions -- like choosing Tyrone Swoopes over J.T. Barrett -- are the reason Texas sucks right now. Do they really want somebody like that in charge of all sports? They should hire Oliver Luck, just like they should have last time.

--Josh Fleming, Abeline, Texas

I expect Texas will, at the very least, consult with Mack Brown and solicit his opinion about potential candidates. Given just how badly Steve Patterson alienated virtually all of Texas' constituents -- but most notably its big donors -- it's extremely important that the next AD repair those relationships. Given Mack is still tight with those guys, the AD may lean on him to facilitate that process. But I would be surprised if Texas actually offers him the job -- not because of his questionable quarterback evaluations, but because it's ultra-important the school gets this hire right. And the best way to ensure that is to hire someone with actual experience running a major athletic department. Besides, Mack Brown reportedly told CBS Sports Wednesday he is not interested in the job.

Luck obviously fits that criteria, but would he leave what is essentially a second-in-command post at the NCAA to return to a campus job? If not, there is no shortage of qualified candidates out there, it just depends on their level of interest. Arkansas AD Jeff Long makes a lot of sense, especially given his prior experience working under Oklahoma's Joe Castiglione -- whom all the Texas brass highly respect. Arizona AD Greg Byrne is a rising star, but 'Horns fans would need to get over any bad blood with his father, former Texas A&M AD Bill Byrne. Louisville AD Tom Jurich (aka Charlie Strong's former boss), Kansas State's John Currie, Northwestern's Jim Phillips, Mississippi State's Scott Stricklin and many others fit the bill.

How do you rate BYU's chances of playing in a New Year's Six Bowl, or possibly into a semifinal?

--Andrew Tollefson, Rock Springs, Wyo.

I'll certainly rate the Cougars' New Year's Six chances much higher if they upset UCLA this weekend. Because of BYU's unique situation as an independent, the only way it can make it to one of those bowls (which this year would almost certainly be the Fiesta) is to finish ranked high enough by the committee to grab one of its few at-large spots. What exactly that number needs to be will depend on where the contractual champions finish, but last year 9-3 Ole Miss got the last spot by finishing ninth. I don't think it's unrealistic that an 11-1 BYU team with wins over Nebraska, Boise State, UCLA and either Michigan or Missouri -- all but one of them on the road -- could finish that high.

Top four, on the other hand, would require going 12-0, and even then it's no certainty. It would depend in large part on how good those big-name opponents turn out to be. If, for example, UCLA goes on to win the Pac-12, Missouri wins the SEC East and Boise wins 11 games, that's going to stack up pretty favorably with other contenders. If they're mostly six- to eight-win teams, maybe not so much. BYU's overall schedule may not be that of most Power 5 teams, but it's hardly a Mountain West schedule, either. Other than a few bottom-feeders like UConn, San Jose State and Wagner -- which every team has -- its other opponents (Cincinnati, East Carolina, Utah State, etc.) are regular bowl participants.

First let's see what happens Saturday at the Rose Bowl. Does Tanner Mangum have another miracle in him? That Bruins defense is salty.

Would Arkansas finish in second or third place in the MAC West?

--Stephen Wayne, New Mexico

Touché.

Is it possible that maybe -- just maybe -- Toledo is actually pretty good?

--Matt Astle, Sammamish, Wash.

Toledo IS actually pretty good. Matt Campbell has been steadily building that program for several years but had not yet enjoyed a breakthrough non-conference victory. And mind you, the Rockets beat Arkansas despite the fact star running back Kareem Hunt -- a 1,631-yard rusher last season -- was suspended. And quarterback Phillip Ely was playing his first game in more than a year after tearing his ACL in the second game of last season. So I would expect the Rockets' offense to be more formidable down the road than it was in Little Rock.

But of course, what made Toledo's win so impressive was its defense, which is not something you expect to see from a MAC team. Lots and lots of mid-majors over the years have fielded high-powered offenses, but the ones that have won at the highest level -- Utah pre-Pac-12, TCU pre-Big 12 and of course Boise State -- boasted exceptional defenses. I'm eager to see how the Rockets fare the next couple of weeks against Iowa State and Arkansas State, neither of them elite opponents by any means but good non-conference measuring sticks.

Toledo beat Arkansas State 63-44 in last year's GoDaddy.com Bowl. Based on what we saw last weekend, I'd be very surprised if the Red Wolves score 44

As I was watching Auburn luck its way into overtime vs. Jacksonville State -- a team most don't even know which state it comes from -- I was thinking ... will the committee even care what happens from here? Is barely winning or barely losing this game an important distinction?

--James, Asheville, N.C.

An actual loss to an FCS team would have been pretty difficult to overcome. But if Auburn winds up in a position where the committee is in fact considering the Tigers for something important, a close call in Week 2 is probably not going to carry much relevance by then. And that's because Auburn will have gotten a lot better.

I know we're all eager to make decisive evaluations about these teams, but please, try to remember that the team you see in Week 2 is very rarely the same team you see in Week 12. Some will get better. Some will get worse. Many will completely reinvent themselves. And while Auburn has certainly been a disappointment on offense thus far (77th nationally at 5.52 yards per play), are you really going to write off Gus Malzahn of all coaches in his ability to figure things out? Did anyone think after two weeks of the 2013 season that Auburn would wind up in the national championship game and Tre Mason a Heisman finalist? Of course not.

I'm not saying write Auburn into the playoff. I've backed off that prediction myself. But while a near-disaster in Week 2 certainly gives cause for concern, don't assume the Tigers are now doomed. The 2007 Michigan team that lost to Appalachian State in Week 1 wound up beating Tim Tebow in a bowl game, and the 2010 Virginia Tech team that lost to James Madison in Week 2 wound up winning 11 games and going undefeated in the ACC. It's a long season.

Stewart. It seems you came to your senses as you now have two Big Ten teams in your CFP projection. The SEC and the SEC West are not immune to the cyclical nature of college football. In fact, I'd wager that there's a decent chance the SEC misses the playoff. If that happens, is there anything that could be done to accelerate the move to an eight-team playoff?

--Foster, Wilmington, N.C.

If there's a "decent" chance the SEC will miss the playoff, then there's a "decent" chance Matthew McConaughey will get the Texas AD job.

Just because a lot of people would get a kick out of something doesn't mean it's imminent.

Stewart, no doubt you have seen this article from The Wall Street Journal. Does it surprise you that so many young QBs have so little knowledge of what NFL coaches and executives consider to be basic football knowledge? Clearly the fast-paced, spread offenses that are so prolific on the college level today are effective but are they indeed hurting the NFL? If so, how can this problem be fixed?

--Craig, Lincoln, Neb.

You don't want to get me started about that article. It's everything I hate about the NFL wrapped up in a bunch of condescending quotes.

Let's unwrap this conundrum for a second by working backward. Elite high school quarterbacks today are more skilled than at any point in time due to all the added experience they get through either the Elite 11 camp circuit, private quarterback coaches, 7-on-7 teams or all of the above. And it shows when guys like Jameis Winston, Johnny Manziel and now Josh Rosen come in and shine right from their first game. In turn, college quarterbacks are more skilled than at any point in time due to the fact that most of the good ones start getting game experience early, start getting first-team practice reps sooner and, due to the fast paces of the offense, get far more game reps than before. This shows in the ever-increasing accuracy and efficiency statistics.

So if there's more talented and seasoned quarterbacks coming out of college than ever before, but NFL teams are thumbing their noses at more than ever before, on which side is the problem here? The incoming players who aren't as versed in NFL playbooks, or the NFL teams that stubbornly refuse to adapt their schemes to fit the available talent? Put it this way: If you ran a business that annually hired new employees straight out of college and started realizing that today's graduates possess different skill sets than you traditionally sought out, would you simply throw up your hands and say, "Well, I guess we're screwed"? Or would you get ahead of the trend and start adjusting your business to better reflect trends in the marketplace?

Of course most NFL teams are still sticking to the former. They'd rather draft a Jake Locker or Logan Thomas, who look the part but lack the resume, than invest in a proven commodity like Bryce Petty and trust he can learn new concepts. I know it's just one game, but I couldn't help notice that Marcus Mariota, who played in one of those gimmicky college offenses at Oregon, looked pretty ready for the NFL from Day One. I also couldn't help but notice that his first touchdown came on the type of run-pass package play (where the quarterback chooses which one based on what he sees from the defense post-snap) so prevalent in college spread offenses.

Both parties are adapting. What a novel concept.

One of the downsides to living in LA, Stewart, is too many choices. So, this Saturday, do I go to see Mark Knopfler, "Weird Al" Yankovic, or Stanford-USC? (The decision's already been made: I'm taking my 14-year-old son to his first concert, which has to be Weird Al. But am I making the right call?)

--Ben Lea, Chatsworth, Calif.

Wow -- Weird Al is still popular among 14-year-old boys? Crazy. I'm going to be in L.A. this weekend myself and was planning on attending the BYU-UCLA game, but if you're telling me there's a chance I could see "Eat It" live ...

Stewart: This has been bugging me for a while now. UNC just agreed to a home-and-home with Charlotte. Fans like to claim playing an away game in a fertile market helps with recruiting. In the day of Internet and television, when a kid in Houston can turn on FS1 and see Baylor playing, do they really need to schedule a game at Rice? Does Ole Miss not get enough exposure in Memphis as it is that they have to play at Memphis?

--Justin Barrow, New Bern, N.C.

It's more about economics than recruiting. It has become ridiculously expensive to bring in an FBS opponent for a one-off guarantee game -- $900,000 is about the absolute minimum, with schools like Alabama and Auburn paying as much as $1.6 million to $1.7 million for one game. They can afford it, but most can't, so an occasional home-and-home, or even a 2-for-1, helps offset the cost. Ideally, as in the examples you cited, it's close enough for your own fans to still attend.

Hi Stewart. Please tell me that Houston is not in danger of having Tom Herman poached after one year! I was really excited by his hire during the offseason and more so now after the Cougars' big win against Louisville. If Houston is able to go 10-2 or 11-1 and win the American, will he be a top candidate for jobs for next year?

--Erik, Los Angeles

The unfortunate reality of the Power 5 era is that any program outside of those conferences is going to be a springboard job for a good coach. That's especially true in the American, which right now is brimming with respected young coaches (Herman, Memphis' Justin Fuente, Temple's Matt Rhule, SMU's Chad Morris.) But I would be surprised if Herman stays only one year.

For one thing, he knows well that he's at one of the more ideally suited Group of 5 schools. And given the exposure he garnered from last year's Ohio State title run, he's not going to be hurting for opportunities if he wins big there, which means he can be choosy about his next destination. And the type of school Herman would want to be choosy enough to wait to open up is probably not the type that would hire a guy off one good season. I just wouldn't count on him still being there in, say, three years.

Hi Stewart, Long-time reader, lifelong BYU fan and soon-to-be father of twin girls here. If Tanner Mangum throws another game-winning Hail Mary against UCLA this week, I might have to name one daughter "Tanner" and the other "Mangum." Would that be an overreaction?

--Nicholas Nelson, Keizer, Ore.

No, it's not, and in fact now that you've put it out there, we're going to hold you to it. Hope you warned your wife.

Stewart Mandel is a senior college sports columnist for FOXSports.com. He covered college football and basketball for 15 years at Sports Illustrated. You can follow him on Twitter @slmandel and Facebook. Send emails and Mailbag questions to Stewart.Mandel@fox.com.