College Football

Michigan controls its CFP destiny, despite being ranked No. 5

Updated Nov. 3, 2022 9:33 p.m. ET

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FOX Sports college football analyst Joel Klatt has a simple message for those who believe Clemson deserved to be ranked ahead of Michigan in the initial College Football Playoff rankings.

"Just turn on the film," Klatt said on a recent episode of his podcast, "The Joel Klatt Show." "You will see that Michigan is a much better team."

Michigan disrespected in CFP rankings

Joel Klatt discussed the Michigan Wolverines being ranked No. 5 in the CFP playoff rankings and compared them to the Clemson Tigers.

The 13-member CFP committee ranked undefeated Michigan No. 5 in the first set of rankings, one spot behind the Tigers. In comparison, Klatt — who releases his own top-10 rankings every week — had the Wolverines slotted at No. 4, with Dabo Swinney’s team at No. 7.

The committee does take multiple factors into account in its rankings, including strength of schedule. The Wolverines did face a relatively easy non-conference schedule, playing Colorado State, UConn and Hawaii, who have a combined record of 8-18 heading into Week 10. Meanwhile, Clemson's non-conference schedule has so far included Furman and Louisiana Tech (combined record of 10-7), with a third coming against Notre Dame (5-3) on Saturday.

Schedule aside, though, Jim Harbaugh’s team has dominated every opponent through the first two months of the season, including an impressive 41-17 rout of then-No. 10 Penn State.

Another factor that could be hurting Michigan is the number of underperforming teams in the Big Ten this season. The Wolverines have wins over both Iowa and Michigan State, two teams that have endured uncharacteristic struggles.

The Spartans entered the 2022 campaign ranked No. 15 in the Preseason AP Top 25 Poll, but Mel Tucker’s team has struggled mightily on both sides of the ball this season and finds itself in jeopardy of missing a bowl game. The Hawkeyes (4-4) also came into the season with high expectations but have failed to generate consistency on offense, averaging a measly 16.4 points per game.

"I do think the lack of quality mid-tier Big Ten teams is hurting Michigan in this sense, but they will have a chance against two more CFP-ranked teams in Illinois and Ohio State," Klatt said.

Clemson, on the other hand, does have three wins over top-25 teams on its résumé, but all three contests have been close. The Tigers have won half of their games by 10 points or fewer and do not have any games remaining on their schedule against teams currently in the CFP rankings.

Klatt believes that Clemson being ranked ahead of Michigan is a case of recency bias, given the fact the Tigers have appeared in the College Football Playoff six times in eight years.

"Clemson being in the top four is a nod not to this Clemson team, but to what past Clemson teams have done," Klatt said. "This is a ranking that is born out of the ghost of Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Watson and Hunter Renfrow."

Through the first eight years of the CFP era, 19 of the 32 teams (59%) ranked in the top four in the initial CFP rankings ended up in the playoffs. While the Wolverines would love to be slotted in the top four, it’s far from a lock that the four teams ranked above them stay there. In fact, only once have the initial teams in the top four all ended up in the playoffs. That was in 2020, when No. 1 LSU was joined by No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Clemson and No. 4 Oklahoma in the semifinals.

"The good news for Michigan is that they clearly control their own destiny," Klatt said. "You’re not going to beat Ohio State, go undefeated, and not go to the playoff."

Read more:

• FOX Sports staff survey: CFP picks, Heisman leaders, more!
• Week 10 preview: Breaking down all the top games
• College football Week 10: By the numbers
• Defensive stars set to attract attention of scouts in Week 10
• Deion Sanders, Lane Kiffin and other top Auburn coach candidates

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