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Michigan Football: Five Bold Predictions For 2016 Season
Apr 1, 2016; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Ty Isaac (32) rushes during the spring game at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
As we near the end of a long and grueling offseason, it’s time to finally start making some claims for the upcoming Michigan football season.
When the Wolverines take the field on Saturday to play Hawaii in the season opener, it will mark the end of a 246-day drought of Michigan football.
Some people have put their expectations for Michigan way up there: They’re going to win the Big Ten East—and then the Big Ten title game; they’re going to the College Football Playoff, even if just as a No. 4 seed, for the first time; Jabrill Peppers is going to be the talk of the town, and he’ll be in New York for the Heisman ceremony in December.
Looking at Michigan’s roster, as well as most of this season’s schedule, I can’t dismiss you as being off your rocker and in a fantasy world controlled by what you wish so desperately would happen; I share some of these expectations with you.
The point of bold predictions is not to say things like “Michigan will win the national championship and not lose a game on the way.” You know, inflammatory things that just aren’t realistic.
The point is to evaluate where the loftiest of expectations are, look at what the Wolverines are capable of doing, and then basically decide if this is a team that’s going to go with the grain and do what you want, or go against the grain and disappoint you.
(If this was going to be a down year for Michigan, I could easily replace “loftiest” with “lowest.” It works the same way.)
So here you go: my boldest of predictions for Michigan this season, in no particular order.
Oct 17, 2015; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; Michigan Wolverines fan reacts at the end of the game against the Michigan State Spartans at Michigan Stadium. Michigan State 27-23. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Michigan will be a top-5 team when it plays MSU
I’m looking at Michigan’s schedule from the beginning of the season to almost all the way through October, and I’m not seeing much. There’s Penn State and Wisconsin, sure, but it’s a good sign when those are your two toughest games in a two-month stretch. (To be fair, Wisconsin is going to up there with the Big Ten West’s best, but the Badgers have a pretty rough schedule weighing down expectations.)
You think Hawaii is going to give Michigan fits? Nope. UCF? Nope. Colorado? Probably not.
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What about Illinois? Rutgers?
I’ve already said this, but if Michigan doesn’t get off to a 7-0 start, something went terribly wrong. As I’ve also said before, a loss in this stretch doesn’t create a complete disaster for the Wolverines, but it creates quite the hole to climb out of if it’s got playoff hopes.
I’m having trouble finding a loss in here, and at 7-0, Michigan is going to be ranked in the top five when it plays Michigan State on Oct. 29.
Here’s what kind of cool about this placement: The first College Football Playoff rankings are released on Nov. 3, meaning Michigan, possibly 8-0, would have a really good shot at being ranked inside the top four in those initial rankings.
There’s obviously the problem of Michigan maintaining that standing as it goes on to play Iowa and Ohio State on the road, but that’s a different test for a different time. For now, suffice it to say the polls are going to love Michigan until at least November this season.
Jul 15, 2016; Hollywood, CA, USA; General view of the Pac-12 Championship game trophy (left), College Football Playoff national championship trophy (center) and Leishman Trophy (Rose Bowl) during Pac-12 media day at Hollywood & Highland. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Michigan won’t make the playoff
I’m sorry to say it, and I’m sorry you most likely resent me now, but I don’t think Michigan is going to make the College Football Playoff this season. (And for that matter, it doesn’t look like next season is going to be any better.)
Here’s the thing: The Wolverines are probably going to play like a playoff team all season. That does’t guarantee you anything, though. What Michigan absolutely needs to do is win the Big Ten, and when I see a conference schedule that includes road games against Michigan State, Iowa and Ohio State, you can excuse me for being cautious with my optimism.
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I’m giving the nod to Ohio State. Sucks to say it, but it’s true. Part of it is because Michigan hasn’t cleared this hurtle in a very long time; part of it is because the Buckeyes are going to be just as good as the Wolverines this season. (It’s worth noting that Ohio State has to play Michigan State in East Lansing, too.)
Unlike last season, when a New Year’s Six bowl suddenly came into play in the final couple weeks of the season, that’s going to be the case throughout. Michigan making one of those bowl games won’t constitute a failure. It’ll be difficult to think of what could’ve been, but you move on pretty quickly.
Position Preview: Running Backs
All that said, this is one of those cases where I’m truly only slightly leaning toward my picked position. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Michigan win the Big Ten East and then the conference championship.
You could easily argue the Wolverines have the best roster in the Big Ten this season. We’ll see.
Apr 1, 2016; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback John O’Korn (8) drops back to pass during the spring game at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
John O’Korn will occasionally be used
All signs are pointing toward redshirt sophomore Wilton Speight being the starting quarterback in Michigan’s opener against Hawaii. That’s admittedly something I haven’t once predicted this offseason, but I’m OK with that.
When I say O’Korn will “occasionally be used,” I don’t mean to imply that Speight is going to struggle so mightily that the staff will feel the need to make a change. (As we saw with Jake Rudock last year, these coaches are apparently willing to go through a lot of crap before pulling that trigger.)
No, O’Korn will be used occasionally because he’s a quality athlete who by now has a good grip of the offense, and he can provide a little extra sauce when Michigan wants/needs it.
Speight might be the better quarterback, and there’s no arguing he has the better size—6-foot-6, 243 pounds—but he doesn’t have that supreme shake-and-bake skill that O’Korn brings to the table. That’s where the Wolverines could potentially get a little crafty and tailor something for the quarterback who worked really well in Houston’s fast-pace offense in 2013.
So, “occasionally”—what does that mean? If this even happens, I feel like it’s not something that would come about every game. I think we’re looking at one of two plays here and there, and they probably wouldn’t be in succession.
What gets me excited about the prospect of O’Korn getting a snap or two at quarterback is that you can couple him with Jabrill Peppers and potentially turn a defense on its head with whatever kind of creative play might be devised.
Disclosure: If O’Korn ends up being the starter, I still hold he will occasionally be used at quarterback.
Oct 17, 2015; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans wide receiver Aaron Burbridge (16) makes a catch against Michigan Wolverines cornerback Jourdan Lewis (26) during the 2nd half of a game at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
Jourdan Lewis will have another killer season
To be completely honest, I had a hard time deciding what my exceptions for Jourdan Lewis should be this season.
On one hand, logic says quarterback are going to be mostly avoiding him this season, meaning he won’t have enough opportunities to produce something like 20 passes defended like he did a season ago. On the other hand, Michigan plays almost exclusively in man defense; if you want your best receiver getting the ball in hands, you have to go after Lewis.
For that reason, I think Lewis is destined for a season just as good, if not better, than the one he just had, even in terms of pure numbers.
Something that may actually help Lewis in this effort is the fact that he doesn’t pick off too many passes. He bats them away, sure, but as a quarterback I think you’re much more likely to attack a corner with 15 passes defended and two interceptions, as opposed to someone with 10 passes defended and six interceptions.
Lewis will be a beneficiary again of Michigan’s incredible defensive line, which will leave offenses with two choices: run into a dead end, or try to get your yards through the air. Teams are going to be throwing the ball more than they want to.
If it were true that Michigan plays a lot of zone, I wouldn’t have a problem saying Lewis just isn’t going to have a season like he did in 2015. But with the hard-press man—and perhaps the luring of quarterbacks who are a bit more comfortable throwing toward a guy who doesn’t necessarily create turnovers—Lewis is definitely in line for another really good year.
Nov 28, 2015; Ann Arbor, MI, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback J.T. Barrett (16) runs the ball Michigan Wolverines defensive end Chris Wormley (43) over to defend in the first quarter at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Michigan will go 2-1 against MSU, Iowa and OSU
Talking about Michigan’s schedule is really complicated; you can’t paint with too wide of a brush. On one hand, as I hit on earlier, those first seven games give me no reason to believe the Wolverines won’t be playing Michigan State as a 7-0 team.
But then you get to the the back end of the schedule, where Michigan has to travel to play the Spartans, Hawkeyes and Buckeyes. Put another way, Michigan has its three toughest games of the year away from Ann Arbor.
Because of the situation the Wolverines are in, everything from 3-0 to 0-3 is on the spectrum of legitimate possibilities. In all likelihood, it’s probably accurate to say 3-0 is more probable than 0-3, but it’s that tough of a slate.
When it’s all said and done, though, I think Michigan gets through this thing with two wins, and I honestly haven’t the slightest clue who those two wins will come against.
Can’t you see Michigan losing on the road to Michigan State? Ohio State? I think the general consensus is that Iowa is the easiest of these three.
As a side question, would you rather see Michigan beat the Spartans or Buckeyes, given it can only beat one this season? Tough choice.
The real question is whether an 11-1 team, with its lone loss against maybe Ohio State or Michigan State, would be lucky enough to still move on through the East and play for the Big Ten title. Think back to last season, when we were pulling for Ohio State to beat Michigan State. It could be a similar situation this season, only even more intense.
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