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Michigan Football: Three Michigan State Players To Watch
Oct 8, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans quarterback Tyler O’Connor (7) prepares to take the snap of the ball during the first half of a game against the Brigham Young Cougars at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
As Michigan football gets ready for its best shot in recent history to beat Michigan State, the Spartans are still going to field a few potential threats on Saturday.
This is easily the best chance Michigan football will have in its time under Jim Harbaugh to beat either Michigan State or Ohio State.
That’s because the Spartans are struggling mightily—they may not even make a bowl game this season—with a 2-5 record that includes losses to Maryland, Indiana and Northwestern. I’m on the record as saying a win for Michigan this Saturday would not necessarily get the “can Michigan beat the Spartans or Buckeyes” monkey off its back.
As though Michigan State doesn’t have enough problems already, who starts at quarterback on Saturday is a game-time decision. It’ll probably be either Tyler O’Connor or Brian Lewerke. Neither has had sustained success under center.
Considering how well Michigan has defended against the run this season, the Spartans won’t be able to pull off an upset without high quality play at quarterback.
Michigan State’s defense hasn’t been terrible this season. It’s near the middle of the pack in yards allowed per game, and it doesn’t excel in either run or pass defense. It’s nothing Michigan won’t be able to handle.
The most recognizable and dangerous name on the Spartans’ defense is Malik McDowell (Riley Bullough is a close second). Does he have it in him to take a game over and stifle Michigan’s entire offense? It would take a miracle.
No, this isn’t the game we thought it would be in August, but after what happened last season, there’s no reason to take it lightly.
Oct 22, 2016; College Park, MD, USA; Michigan State Spartans quarterback Brian Lewerke (14) led the offense against the Maryland Terrapins at Byrd Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
Whoever’s playing at quarterback
Here’s the thing. It doesn’t matter who’s playing at quarterback for Michigan State on Saturday; they need to have one of the best games of their lives to make it a game the Spartans can win.
Michigan’s rush defense is off-the-charts good: it’s allowing 96 yards per game (No. 4 in FBS), and S&P+ ratings show the Wolverines on another planet than the rest of college football.
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You could give Michigan State whichever running back you want, he’s not winning the game. What the Spartans are going to be forced to do is put the ball in the air and take numerous chances against a Michigan secondary that’s arguably just as good as its front seven.
It’s quite possible that we’ll see O’Connor and Lewerke split time in a two-quarterback system against the Wolverines, in which case it’s plausible to think Lewerke would be in there only as some kind of running threat.
Without a doubt, the biggest sub-plot here is whether or not Michigan State can use its quarterback to keep drives alive on third down. This season the Spartans have been successful only 37 percent of the time, and Michigan is only allowing a conversion rate of 13 percent (best in FBS). That’s a matchup nightmare by itself.
If the Spartans can roll out O’Connor or Lewerke (or both) and find some early success on Saturday, this is a game Michigan State can perhaps hang around in. If not, it could quickly turn into an ugly affair.
Sep 24, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans defensive lineman Malik McDowell (4) talks to teammate during the second half of a game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
Malik McDowell, DL
McDowell isn’t typically married to a position on the defensive line, and that will need to continue to be the case against Michigan, a team that’s averaging 5.47 yards per rush this season.
The Wolverines’ offensive line has also done a much better job this year of protecting quarterback Wilton Speight and giving him plenty of time and a clean pocket to throw from. You could make the argument that Michigan’s offensive line has been the most improved position group from last season (linebackers are also competing for that distinction).
The 6-foot-7 McDowell leads the Spartans with 5 tackles for loss and has 1 1/2 sacks on the season. He’s registered at least a 1/2 sack in each of Michigan State’s last three games, including 1 1/2 in last week’s loss at Maryland.
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McDowell’s presence against Michigan will be important because, with a couple dramatic exceptions, the Wolverines have been able to do whatever they want against opponents.
Loading the box? That’s fine. We learned against Central Florida and (to a lesser extent) Colorado that Speight is plenty capable of carrying his offense to the finish line. (No team has chosen to abandon its run defense efforts agains the Wolverines; it’s just looked like that sometimes.)
Basically, if McDowell isn’t on fire and making plays on Saturday, that’s a pretty terrible sign for the way things are probably going for the Spartans.
Oct 15, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans linebacker Riley Bullough (30) tackles Northwestern Wildcats wide receiver Macan Wilson (15) during the second half of a game at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
Riley Bullough, MLB
Michigan quarterbacks have spent a lot of time in recent history on the ground when playing the Spartans. Riley Bullough, Michigan State’s redshirt senior middle linebacker, will happily take the blame for some of that destruction.
In 2013, as you probably remember, Michigan finished with almost -50 yards of rushing against the Spartans.
Bullough, who moved from running back/fullback to linebacker for the the 2014 season, has Michigan’s attention.
“That dude’s an angry guy,” said Speight. “He wants to get in the quarterback’s kitchen every play. So I know I’ve got to get the ball out as quickly as possible.”
Still, this season has been quite a different story for the Spartans’ defense than in years past. Michigan State isn’t tackling anybody behind the line of scrimmage, it isn’t getting off the field on third down, and it isn’t doing a great job against the run.
The McDowell-Bullough duo is still capable of producing big-time plays for the Spartans, and it couldn’t come at a better time than against Michigan. The problem is there’s not much precedent for such an event this season.
Bullough is going be massive in the effort to stop Michigan on the ground. It’s still in every opponents’ best interest to choose to protect against the run first.
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