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Michigan State Football: 10 bold predictions for 2016 season
Sep 2, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA;The Michigan State Spartans defense enters the stadium before a game against the Furman Paladins at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
Let’s take a look at our 10 bold predictions for Michigan State football during the 2016 regular season.
The leaves are beginning to change colors, pumpkin-flavored everything is the seasonal taste and people are devoting their Saturdays to sitting in front of the TV. What does this mean? Michigan State football season is underway and the Spartans got things kicked off with a week one victory over Furman, 28-13.
No, it wasn’t a pretty victory, but no openers in the Mark Dantonio era have really blown fans away. The first games of the season are usually tests to see how well Dantonio’s teams can play under pressure and they usually end in a close Michigan State victory over inferior opponents.
It’s hard to learn anything against an FCS foe, but Michigan State knows it has a ton of work to do if it wants to contend for the College Football Playoff yet again.
With the season underway, it’s better late than never to come up with some bold predictions for 2016. Let’s take a look at ours and you can give us some of your own in the comment section below.
10. Secondary will be top three in the Big Ten
Sep 2, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans defensive back Demetrious Cox (7) block a pass intended for Furman Paladins wide receiver Andrej Suttles (3) during the second half of a game at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
The secondary had a solid week one showing against Furman, which isn’t saying much, but the Paladins gave the Spartans a solid fight. P.J. Blazejowski attempted 30 passes against the Spartans, but completed only 15 of them for 123 yards and an interception.
Furman couldn’t get anything going deep and the longest pass I remember was from wide receiver Duncan Fletcher who took a reverse and turned it into a trick play, passing for 16 yards.
Michigan State is led by a veteran group which boasts a ton of talent. People like to knock Darian Hicks because he didn’t keep his head on a swivel, earning two pass interference calls — one questionable one — but he did stick to the opposing receivers like glue throughout.
Blazejowski stayed away from Vayante Copeland’s side of the field, and deservedly so. Montae Nicholson had a solid game at safety and so did Demetrious Cox. These four, along with some younger guys sprinkled in, will have a heck of season for the Spartans, ranking in the top three in the Big Ten in passing yards allowed per game.
Oct 25, 2014; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans linebacker Ed Davis (43) flies over block of Michigan Wolverines running back De’Veon Smith (4) during the 2nd half of a game at Spartan Stadium. MSU won 35-11. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
9. Ed Davis finishes with 10 sacks
Being granted a sixth year of eligibility by the NCAA had to be a good feeling for senior linebacker Ed Davis. He had been waiting a few weeks for the news and Friday afternoon, he finally learned he would be on the team for week three against Notre Dame. Davis has been practicing with the Spartans for the past few weeks, but he has yet to see live action.
Now that he’s officially back, he can get back to his outside linebacker position, even if that means taking some playing time away from rising sophomore Andrew Dowell. The second-year player from Ohio has become a stud on the defensive side of the ball, even ‘saving the day’ for the Spartans against Furman with a huge second half interception.
Dowell might take a back seat for now, but you better believe he’s a lock to be the starting STAR linebacker next year when Davis is gone.
That brings up back to Davis, though. Getting back to what he does best, he will be living in opponents’ backfields for the rest of the year. If he can keep that knee healthy, he will remain a top blitzing option for the Spartans and build on his strong 2014 performance. He finished with 58 tackles, 12.5 for loss and 7.5 sacks.
I expect Davis to finish the 2016 season with more than 10 sacks. Call me crazy, but he has that type of potential.
Sep 2, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans quarterback Tyler O
8. Tyler O’Connor passes for 3,000 yards
Am I crazy to think that Tyler O’Connor will pass for over 3,000 yards and 20-plus touchdowns this season? Maybe, but you have to remember what kind of season Andrew Maxwell had the year after Kirk Cousins graduated.
Replacing Michigan State’s all-time leading passer — Connor Cook — won’t be an easy task, and he will probably forever be compared to his predecessor, unfairly, but O’Connor has a ton of talent surrounding him. Besides having a top-tier trio of running backs behind him, two capable fullbacks and a decent offensive line, he has the deepest receiving corps in the Big Ten.
You look at guys like Monty Madaris who had a breakout game in week one, R.J. Shelton who could be the Big Ten Receiver of the Year, Donnie Corley who is an elite freshman, Felton Davis III who is capable of putting up huge numbers and Josiah Price who is an All-Big Ten tight end and you see a team that can catch passes.
Put all of those guys together, along with Justin Layne, Cam Chambers, Trishton Jackson, Darrell Stewart and Jamal Lyles and you have a team capable of making the quarterback look like a star.
Expect O’Connor to have a solid season, passing for over 3,000 yards and completing 60 percent of his throws with over 20 touchdowns. He got off to a good start with 190 yards and three touchdowns on 13-of-18 completions against Furman.
Heck, Maxwell had 2,600 and 13 touchdowns during a season when passing the ball seemed like a chore.
Sep 2, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans wide receiver Monty Madaris (88) carries the ball during the second half against the Furman Paladins at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
7. Monty Madaris becomes this 2016’s Aaron Burbridge
Five catches for 85 yards might not seem like that big of a deal, but for Madaris, it’s a huge step forward. The fifth-year senior had just seven receptions for 103 yards in his entire career before the Furman game, and that may have been the confidence boost he needed to make the transition from seventh option to No. 1 target.
Fighting through injuries throughout his entire Michigan State career, Madaris had failed to live up to the high expectations bestowed upon him entering his freshman year. He was a four-star wide receiver from Cincinnati, but redshirted and then failed to see the field extensively due to tremendous depth at the position.
Watching guys like Tony Lippett and Aaron Burbridge rise through the ranks and go from role player to Big Ten Receiver of the Year in just one season had to inspire this kid. He might be in the process of doing the same thing and if I predict correctly, he could come close to 1,000 yards this year for the Spartans.
It would be one of the best comeback stories in Spartan history and he has the talent to get the job done, but it all depends on what kind of looks he will get from defenses. Also, will O’Connor continue to depend on him as a top target? Staying healthy will be key as well.
Madaris will be this year’s Aaron Burbridge and push for 1,000 yards, making a run at the conference’s receiver of the year award.
Sep 2, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans running back Lj Scott (3) carries the ball past Furman Paladins linebacker Carl Rider (55) during the second half at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
6. LJ Scott finishes with 1,200-plus yards, 15 TDs
After an opening game performance against Furman with 20 carries for 105 yards and plenty of work between the tackles to earn that yardage, L.J. Scott has been named the No. 1 running back moving forward by the coaching staff.
Dantonio has preached that he believes there will be three running backs, maybe four if Delton Williams works at the position, who will get carries this year, but Scott is the top dog right now. He’s proven himself as a capable No. 1 running back and 5.3 yards per carry with a touchdown by primarily running into piles of would-be tacklers is impressive, no matter who you play.
The Spartans have themselves another stud in the backfield and I believe Scott is going to have a monster year. Last season, he finished with 699 yards and 11 touchdowns on just under 5.0 yards per touch, but I believe all of those numbers, outside of YPC, will double.
I say he will finished with over 1,200 rushing yards, but if he’s getting 20-30 carries per game, he will finish the season with close to 1,400 total rushing yards and nearly 20 scores. He has all the talent in the world to do so and if he keeps trucking defenders like he did versus Furman, no defensive back will be able to bring him down at the second level.
Scott is going to have a whale of a sophomore year and become Le’Veon Bell 2.0. Yes, including the leaving after his junior season part.
Sep 2, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans defensive end Demetrius Cooper (98) gestures to the sideline during the second half against the Furman Paladins at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
5. Michigan State gets revenge on Notre Dame
Remember the 2013 matchup between the Spartans and Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend? It happens to be the last time the two teams have met and it was one of the more controversial games in the multi-decade rivalry.
The Spartans ended up losing the game in Connor Cook’s first season as the starter, 17-13. Why was it so controversial, though? The referees arguably handed the Irish a victory thanks to a handful of questionable pass interference calls against the MSU secondary which featured guys such as Darqueze Dennard, Trae Waynes and Kurtis Drummond.
Take a look:
Some of the calls were correct, but a majority were mis-called and Notre Dame got new life on otherwise dead drives because of them. That would end up being the Spartans’ only loss in the 2013 season, being the difference between a Rose Bowl and national title appearance.
Dantonio hasn’t forgotten and you better believe he’s reminding his players of what happened last time they traveled to Notre Dame Stadium. Although I predicted an MSU loss in my game-by-game predictions last week, I’m picking the Spartans to get revenge.
It will be another close one, though. Michigan State wins 30-23.
Nov 21, 2015; Columbus, OH, USA; Michigan State Spartans place kicker Michael Geiger (4) celebrates after making the game-winning field goal on the final play of the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium. The Spartans won 17-14. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
4. MSU loses to Ohio State on last-second field goal
Speaking of revenge, Ohio State will do the same to Michigan State for last year’s final-second field goal by Michael Geiger in Columbus. Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes have lost just two games against Big Ten teams during his four-year tenure and both were to Michigan State. That has to irritate them to the core.
Meyer will get his revenge in East Lansing this season, a location which Michigan State hasn’t defeated Ohio State since 1999. It’s crazy to think that a home win over the Buckeyes is that much harder to accomplish than a road victory.
After a week one win over Bowling Green, 77-10, it’s clear the Buckeyes aren’t rebuilding this year, or any season under Meyer, and they will come to East Lansing looking for revenge. The Spartans are the team that came in and stole a perfect season from the Buckeyes in 2015. They kicked a field goal and gloated on their own turf, ‘shhh-ing’ the home fans.
J.T. Barrett had his way with the Michigan State defense in 2014 when he was a freshman and he will do so with his legs yet again in 2015. Although the Spartans’ secondary is improved from that year, Barrett will approach 300 passing yards as well.
The game will go down to the final seconds, much like it did last season, and Ohio State will kick the game-winning field goal with time expiring.
How’s that for revenge?
Nov 28, 2015; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans cornerback Arjen Colquhoun (36) and cornerback Jermaine Edmondson (39) carry the Big Ten east championship trophy after a game at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
3. Big Ten East tiebreaker goes against MSU
Michigan State is going to finish first in the Big Ten East, tied with Ohio State, but the tiebreaker will go against the Spartans and in favor of the Buckeyes. Ohio State, unfortunately, will go on to the Big Ten title game, beating Iowa and they’ll take a trip to the College Football Playoff for the second time in three years.
More from Spartan Avenue
It’s tough to say who the Buckeyes will lose to, but there’s always that one team who rises up and gives them a scare. Michigan State’s only Big Ten loss will be against the Buckeyes as the Spartans take care of business against Wisconsin and Michigan at home — both top 10 foes — and Dantonio’s team will finish the regular season ranked No. 7.
However, they’ll be in the running for the playoff when Ohio State comes to town, but the previous slide explains how the Buckeyes will steal a win in East Lansing and knock the Spartans out of contention for good.
A New Year’s Six bowl game will fall into the Spartans’ laps and that will be another solid addition to Dantonio’s resume. The coach will take this season and use it as a recruiting tool for 2018 and he will end up putting together his best class since he’s been at MSU.
The loss this year will make de-throning Ohio State in 2017 that much sweeter.
Sep 2, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans A.D. Mark Hollis comes out of tunnel before a game against the Furman Paladins at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
2. Spartans get another 11-win season
If Ohio State is the only Big Ten loss and I have the Spartans beating Notre Dame, that must mean one thing: Mark Dantonio will record yet another 11-win season for the Spartans. Mark Hollis made the decision of a lifetime to keep Dantonio aboard for the long-term and he’s looking like a genius of an athletic director.
While the late Ron Mason hired Dantonio, Hollis keeping him aboard through the ups and downs since he took over as athletic director in 2008 has paid off.
Even after the tough 2009 season which the Spartans hovered around .500 and lost to Central Michigan and the 2012 campaign when MSU took a step back and went just 7-6, Hollis stuck with Coach D and that has turned into five 11-win seasons in six years.
Well, you can add another 11-win campaign onto that after 2016 since Dantonio will lead the Spartans to an 11-1 regular season with a New Year’s Six bowl on the way. Even if he loses that bowl game, it’d be a successful season, but going 12-1 would be a heck of a year for a team many thought would be no better than the 2012 version.
Michigan State is here to stay, folks.
Sep 2, 2016; East Lansing, MI, USA; Michigan State Spartans defensive lineman Malik McDowell (4) stands on the field between plays during the first half against the Furman Paladins at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
1. Malik McDowell stays for final year
There’s no doubt about it, Malik McDowell is the best defensive lineman in the Big Ten and arguably the best draft prospect the conference has to offer.
Must Read: MSU Football: Which Spartans made 2016 NFL rosters?
With Michigan State players going from the No. 24 overall pick in 2014 (Darqueze Dennard), No. 11 in 2015 (Trae Waynes) and No. 8 in 2016 (Jack Conklin), it only makes sense that the next Spartan to be drafted in the first round will be in the top eight. The improvement in draft positioning goes to show the type of success Dantonio has had at developing players.
McDowell is this year’s top prospect and he has plenty of hype surrounding him. He recorded just three tackles, one for loss, in the week one contest against Furman, but if you go back and watch the film, he wasn’t as silent as his numbers indicate. He drew a ton of attention from the Paladins’ offensive line, double-teaming him with regularity.
Before the season began, the top draft prospect said that he wouldn’t consider leaving Michigan State unless he was a top-three pick. That really opened some eyes.
Whether that holds true as the year goes along remains to be seen, but if he’s being double-teamed all year by progressively more talented linemen, you can bet his numbers won’t look as solid as people were expecting.
McDowell will end up staying, if he is true to his word, as he will be considered a mid-first round pick.
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