College Football

Michigan vs. Ohio State: Prediction, odds, picks

Published Nov. 24, 2023 12:25 p.m. ET

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The 2023 edition of The Game on Saturday, November 25 will see the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (11-0) host the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0) at Michigan Stadium on FOX and the FOX Sports App. The Wolverines are favored by 3.5 points in the outing. 

The Wolverines beat the Maryland Terrapins, 31-24, in their last contest. The Buckeyes beat the Minnesota Golden Gophers, 37-3, in their most recent contest.

Which team will go on to represent the Big Ten East in the conference championship game?

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between Ohio State and Michigan — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks from our betting analysts Geoff Schwartz and Sam Panayotovich. 

Michigan vs. Ohio State Game Information & Odds

• When: Saturday, November 25, 2023 at 12:00 PM ET
• Location: Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan
• TV: FOX
• Live boxscore on FOX Sports

Michigan vs. Ohio State Prediction

• Pick ATS: Ohio State (+3.5)  
• Pick OU: Under (46.5) 
• Prediction: Michigan 24, Ohio State 21

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz

Even though this game has had high point totals over the last few iterations, I do not expect that this weekend. 

Michigan’s outstanding defense has multiple future draft picks starting at all three levels. The Wolverines rank second in points per drive on defense, first in success rate, fifth in havoc rate and have not allowed more than 24 points all season. In fact, before Maryland scored 24 in Week 12, the Wolverines had not allowed more than 15 points in a game this season. Ohio State’s offense will easily be the best Michigan has seen this season, so it’s fair to assume the Wolverines defense might not thrive as well. 

However, Ohio State’s offense is led by Kyle McCord, and he's just average right now. There's only been one game with this kind of heightened environment that the young signal-caller has played in, and that was way back in Week 4 at Notre Dame. In that contest, Ohio State scored 17 points. The Buckeyes scored only 20 against Penn State and 24 against Wisconsin. The Buckeyes' game plan will include protecting McCord by running and safe throws.

But I think the same can be said about Michigan. 

Michigan’s offense did not pass the ball the entire second half against Penn State, except one attempt where a pass interference was called. UM's offensive line is that good, and it’s certainly fantastic that the Wolverines can operate an offense this way. However, it shows me they didn’t want quarterback J.J. McCarthy to screw it up with poor decisions. 

There’s also a concern in pass protection with their tackles. Penn State’s pass rush was able to get home far too often. Ohio State has a pass rush that can do the same. The Buckeyes will need to stop the run to get off the field, but more run plays should help with the Under. 

I’m taking the Under here.

PICK: Under 45.5 points scored by both teams combined

Ohio State vs. Michigan: What is at stake for both teams?

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Sam Panayotovich

I know it's gonna be very, very popular to go Under. Have you guys looked at the last five meetings? [The final scores were] 45-23, 42-27, 56-27, 62-39, 31-20, 30-27. Granted, what happened five years ago has nothing to do with what happens this weekend. But maybe this is the Marvin Harrison Jr. explosion game. Maybe Michigan still can run the ball well against a sort of weak Ohio State front seven.

PICK: Over 45.5 points scored by both teams combined

Michigan vs. Ohio State Betting Insights

• Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the tilt is Wolverines 25, Buckeyes 22.
• The Wolverines have a 62.8% chance to claim victory in this game per the moneyline's implied probability. The Buckeyes have a 41.2% implied probability.
• Michigan has covered five times in 11 chances against the spread this season.
• Ohio State has put together a 6-3-2 record against the spread this season.

Michigan vs. Ohio State: Head-to-Head

• Over their last two meetings, Michigan has tallied two wins against Ohio State.
• The Wolverines carry a 2-0 record ATS in those games, while the two teams went over the total both times.
• Over their last two head-to-head contests, Michigan has put up 87 points, while Ohio State has accumulated 50.

Michigan vs. Ohio State: 2023 Stats Comparison

Michigan 2023 Key Players

Ohio State 2023 Key Players

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CFB - Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines - 11/25/2023

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Geoff Schwartz

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