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The first round of the 2017 NFL draft was full of surprises. Several teams reached for needs, and created what we see as the top five riskiest picks in the first round.
Teams are posed with a dilemma in the first round. Does a team draft for needs? Or does the team draft the best player available regardless of position? Reality is usually somewhere in-between. Teams pick players they need in the pick range where it makes sense.
Trying to get the player a team needs in the correct pick range leads to trades up and down the draft. When a team trades up in the draft to select a player outside of the player's pick value they are taking risk.
For example, the Bears trading up one pick to take quarterback Mitchell Tribusky is a risky pick given the value of the player in comparison to the value of the pick used to select him. Throw in the extra picks used to acquire the pick and risk is skyrocketing.
Risk usually has very little to do with the player himself. But there are times when risk in a pick is directly related to the player in some way. Players who have off-field issues or medical concerns can lower the value of the player. A team may chose to ignore those concerns creating risk in the overall selections.
With all those boring definitions out of the way, it is time to find out who took the biggest risks in the first round of the draft.
Mandatory Credit: Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports
Jabrill Peppers
Safety, Michigan
The past two years have seen the Browns making incredibly intelligent moves in the draft. This draft was no different. Although one can question the decision to pass on Malik Hooker to take Jabrill Peppers, they did mitigate against the risk of the pick by acquiring the Houston Texans first round pick in 2018.
Peppers does fill a lot of needs for the Browns. Overlooked by the media is Peppers' ability to return kicks. Punts and kickoff returns in Cleveland have been less than stellar for years now. Peppers changes that immediately.
Peppers lands in a good place in Cleveland. Browns Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has experience using hybrid players like Peppers and getting the most out of them. Peppers will line up all over the defense as a linebacker, corner and strong safety. One only need to think of Mark Barron's role in the Los Angeles Rams defense.
This is not to say the pick is without risk. Peppers had a diluted sample at the NFL Combine. Diluted samples are treated as positive drug tests by the NFL. He enters the league already in the Substances of Abuse program.
He also needs to clean up technique in vital areas. Pass coverage is a weakness for him. Playing safety and cornerback will prove difficult if he cannot figure out how to cover.
Browns took a risk, but the reward may be high if Gregg Williams can whip him into shape.
Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
John Ross
Wide Receiver, Washington
During the entire lead up to the draft, the Cincinnati Bengals were linked to defense. They were often mocked to take edge rushers to help support their pass rush. They were also mocked to take a linebacker to support Vontaze Burfict and the aging linebacker crew.
Even though every linebacker was still on the board and Jonathan Allen was still available, the Bengals decided to take John Ross.
You may remember Ross from his record breaking 40-yard dash time at the NFL Combine. But if you are not into that sort of thing, you may remember him from all those pictures of him with Snoop Dogg who coached him in little league football.
John Ross is an incredible talent. He is not simply a track star with straight line speed. John Ross is an excellent wide receiver as well. He runs good routes and gets excellent separation.
So, what is the risk?
John Ross has serious medical concerns. He is often injured and unable to play. It was reported that several teams even took Ross off their board heading into the draft.
The Bengals took Ross because they need wide receiver help. In the 2016 Draft, all the high end wide receiver talent came off the board before their pick. With Corey Davis (5) and Mike Williams (7) already off the board, if the Bengals wanted a high end receiver, they would have to take him at pick nine.
The Bengals over-drafted a player with serious medical concerns. But hey, Pac Man Jones will be able to hang with Snoop Dogg so stay tuned to social media.
Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Reuben Foster
Linebacker, Alabama
The big losers on the evening were the New Orleans Saints. The Saints were jumped twice in the first round. First, they were jumped by the Kansas City Chiefs to take Patrick Mahomes. Then they were jumped by the San Francisco 49ers who took Reuben Foster. Both players were high on the Saints board. But by being passed over, they dodged two very risky players.
The San Francisco 49ers decided to incur the risk on Reuben Foster. He is a big risk to take.
On the field, Reuben Foster is dream pick. He is a top ten talent that was consistently mocked to the Cincinnati Bengals. He brings an attitude and toughness to the field like no other. He can cover against the pass and provide excellent run support.
However, there are off-field issues galore. Teams are concerned with the people that surround him. There is the character issue of being sent home from the combine. In addition, there are serious medical concerns about his shoulder. On top of that is the failed drug test (diluted sample) at the combine. Add this all up and Reuben Foster looks like a very risky proposition.
Foster fell on draft night to the 31st pick. The 49ers gave up their 34th and 111th pick to acquire him. Trading up for a guy with all these issues is risky. But a defense with Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster can get better in a hurry.
Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
Patrick Mahomes
Quarterback, Texas Tech
This one is a virtual toss-up between Patrick Mahomes and Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears trading the house for a one year starter is super risky, but the Chiefs move to take Mahomes is riskier.
The Saints were passed over at number eleven by the Kansas City Chiefs. Subsequently, the Chiefs picked the riskiest quarterback in the draft. Patrick Mahomes has the highest upside of any quarterback in the draft. But he also needs the most work of any quarterback.
How long will it take the Chiefs to groom Alex Smith's heir apparent?
Patrick Mahomes has the biggest arm in the draft. He used that arm while playing at Texas Tech. Some of his highlights are absolutely mind blowing. Some of the throws he made in college will not work in the NFL. But some of the stuff he did at Texas Tech could turn naysayers into believers.
The risk involved with Mahomes comes from his collegiate offense. Until someone from that system can make it big in the NFL, any quarterback coming from an Air Raid offense will be a risk. Mahomes' offense allowed him to call plays, make checks and set protections. If anyone can make the transition, Mahomes has the best chance.
High risk, high reward. Chiefs fans need to hope it does not all fall apart.
The Saints dodged two potential bullets. Be thankful for that Saints fans.
Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Gareon Conley
Cornerback, The Ohio State University
La'el Collins should get a royalty check from Gareon Conley. Without Collins' famous threat to refuse to play if he got drafted, Gareon Conley may go undrafted this entire weekend. Because of Collins, NFL teams are now able to investigate situations faster and more accurately allowing them to take chances on players like Conley.
Conley is as risky as it gets.
He is currently under investigation for rape allegations. If Conley committed the crime, he should be seriously disciplined by the court and immediately cut by the Raiders. If he did not commit the crime, he will be the steal of the draft.
The risk on Conley is off-field. His on the field production is worthy of a high first round pick. He played in the press cover 4 scheme at Ohio State. This past season he played slot corner at times in their nickel package. He is a diverse player who can fit multiple schemes. Along with Marshon Lattimore and Malik Hooker, Conley is one of three Ohio State secondary players taken in the first round.
He is a potential shut down cornerback who can lock down an opponent's top receiver. Or if he is cut, he can set back the Raiders secondary for years.
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