College Football

No. 3 TCU again left to wait, hope for CFP berth after first loss

Updated Dec. 3, 2022 7:14 p.m. ET

ARLINGTON, Texas — Eight years ago, TCU spent Selection Sunday fretting.

Fresh off a blowout win over Iowa State on a championship weekend that did not include a Big 12 version at the time, the Horned Frogs huddled up in Fort Worth nervous over what the College Football Playoff Selection Committee would do in the very first edition of the new postseason structure. They sat No. 3 in the rankings coming into the week but knew Ohio State was lurking in the weeds after putting on one of the most impressive shows of force in a conference title game in recent memory.

Such fears eventually proved true. TCU wound up out of the inaugural CFP and one of the original BCS busters was haunted for years to come by another "what if" that was added to the ledger of their checkered history of disappointment. The Big 12 underwent an existential crisis as a result, eventually reinstating the Championship Game as a way to prevent just such a scenario from happening again.

In a cruel twist of irony, however, the Horned Frogs find themselves right back in a similar spot all these years later because of the very game they had a hand in creating. Inches away from leaving no doubt, the Horned Frogs instead saw their undefeated season slip from their fingers, a goal-line stand by Kansas State leading to a 31-28 OT win for the Wildcats at AT&T Stadium on Saturday.

"Big 12 champions has a nice ring to it," fourth-year K-State coach Chris Klieman said. "And what a great football game, two great teams. TCU should be in the CFP. They're one of the best four teams. And we went toe-to-toe with them. I thought we could go toe to toe with them and we found a way to win."

In contrast to all the euphoria emanating from the Little Apple, TCU now moves on to more pressing matters. The Horned Frogs must wait to see what happens in a conference room 33 miles northeast of campus as the Selection Committee again debates the merits of a one-loss Big 12 program making it into the final four after failing to leave any doubt of their worthiness with an undisputed league title in their back pocket.

"We were literally an inch away from winning the game and being 13-0," said a solemn head coach Sonny Dykes afterward. "TCU’s been through this, you know lost a close game to Baylor in 2014. We didn’t have a conference championship game at the time and I really do believe that was a different time in college football. The Big 12 is in a different place now.

"I’m concerned, obviously, but I have faith in the committee and know that we deserve to be in."

The Horned Frogs were sharp early in the Big 12 endcap just a half hour away from campus, taking their initial possession of the game from inside their own 10 all the way down to pay dirt 92 yards away. Quarterback Max Duggan was six of seven to open the game, dropping one into Quentin Johnston’s arms for a big 53-yard gain before side-arming it to Taye Barber for a short touchdown pass.

Kansas State would mount an aggressive, quick response. After forcing a missed field goal, the offense took advantage of good field position by needing just six plays to find the end zone — scoring on a fourth-down pass to Ben Sinnott to delight the appropriately shaded purple-clad fans who made the trip to North Texas.

The Wildcats later took the lead on another short field, needing just three plays to drive 59 yards before Will Howard pulled it on the keeper to go untouched across the goal line.

Despite a few nervy moments in the second quarter though, Sonny Dykes’ defense would start to stiffen up as the game moved along. They recorded a pair of stops before halftime while the offense chipped into the lead with a late field goal in the final minute before the break.

And that is when things got weird … as they tend to do when one sideline prominently features a "Hypnotoad" and has proven capable of coming back from down double-digits in nearly every game in 2022.

Duggan, making his 41st career start for the school, had his first drive of the third quarter technically end in a punt after an incomplete pass on third down. However, the play was a fraction of an inch away from being a safety after it was knocked out of his forward-moving hand and later recovered in the end zone for an initial safety.

The Wildcats didn’t catch a break on the call but did prove that the ball doesn’t lie in such situations, needing just four plays before Howard delivered a dart across the middle to R.J. Garcia II — the receiver’s first career touchdown catch.

Following a defensive stop and threatening to run away with things, however, KSU muffed the ensuing punt return. Trent Battle recovered it and handed TCU the ball just 10 yards away from the red zone in opposition territory. Three plays later, tailback Kendre Miller (who rushed for 82 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries) cut the lead to four after bursting into the end zone.

Yet Deuce Vaughn would have his say.

The diminutive K-State running back bobbed and weaved his way for an ankle-breaking 44-yard touchdown early in the 4th quarter. He wound up with a game-high 130 yards rushing on the day as well, helping deliver the program its first conference crown since 2012 when current offensive coordinator Collin Klein was the big man on campus.

Duggan, perhaps earning a few Heisman Trophy votes along the way, would prove he had no quit, putting the team on his back as he had so many times before this season. Rushing or passing on all but one play, the veteran signal-caller ushered his team into the end zone as part of a gutsy eight-play drive that covered every bit of 80 yards. A two-point conversion to Jared Wiley tied the game up to cap off another furious second-half comeback for Dykes’ crew in the coach’s first year in charge.

Yet it was not to be in the end, as the magic the team had previously conjured amid five other one-score wins seemed to run out at the most inopportune time.

Duggan, who became the first player with at least 250 yards passing and 100 rushing in a conference championship game since Deshaun Watson in the 2015 ACC finale, advanced the offense into the red zone almost right away in the first possession of overtime. But the understandably exhausted quarterback was denied twice at the doorstep — each time prompting lengthy officiating reviews to inquire about the ball crossing the line.

Eventually, Miller was stuffed in the backfield on fourth down after the team curiously opted not to attempt a sneak to cover the final foot to the promised land. The turnover on downs eventually allowed KSU to center a try for Ty Zentner, who knocked a 31-yard field goal to split the uprights and deliver an improbable Big 12 championship.

"Two downs inside the 1-yard line, we didn't do it," said Dykes. "That's the difference between winning and losing."

The thrilling conclusion, combined with No. 4 USC’s loss to Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game the night prior, makes for a far messier Playoff picture than when the week began.

No. 5 Ohio State, which was off and sitting with one loss to undefeated Michigan seven days ago, is almost assuredly set to move into the top four with a résumé that boasts the No. 2 scoring offense in the country, No. 13 scoring defense, a top 10 win over Penn State and another quality victory over No. 21 Notre Dame.

The bigger question the committee will have to debate over the coming 24 hours is, barring mass surprises in the SEC and Big Ten championship games, whether TCU has done enough to make it into the field despite losing to a team it already beat — or if No. 6 Alabama has shown enough to leapfrog them just as the Buckeyes did back in 2014.

"I think we’re certainly deserving. I think the league is one of the best in the country. To go through undefeated in the league, certainly, we ought to get in," said Dykes. "I don’t think we should be punished for coming to the Big 12 Championship Game. Conference championship games were not designed to punish teams and prevent them from going into the playoffs. We were three last week and my hope is that we would stay at three."

In an interesting quirk, Dykes may have a recent foe-turned-ally in the process in Kansas State athletic director Gene Taylor, a member of this year’s selection committee who has gotten two good looks at the Frogs in a pair of wild meetings. It remains to be seen just how much weight the broader CFP group will give to TCU’s narrow loss coming to a team it had already beaten back at the end of October, but it will remain a process that could come down to splitting a few hairs before the final ballot is counted.

"I mean you look at their strength of schedule. You think about how they've performed all year long," Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark said of the Horned Frogs making it into the Playoff before the game. "I think regardless they should be in, for sure."

After determining whether the Big 12 runners-up deserve to be in the field, Saturday’s result could also have an impact on seeding. No. 1 Georgia appears set for the Peach Bowl semifinal on New Year’s Even while No. 2 Michigan may be ticketed to the Fiesta Bowl regardless of their result against Purdue in the Big Ten Championship Game.

If TCU ends up making the field, its lone blemish could result in a trip to Atlanta to face what amounts to be a road game against the reigning national champions. Had the Frogs held on, a date against the Wolverines in the desert would have been in the cards.

Who knows, it still might be.

That is a question out of TCU’s hands at the moment as they embark on another nervous Sunday of waiting around to find out their fate.

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Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.