College Football

Ohio State vs. Penn State: Prediction, odds, picks

Updated Oct. 19, 2023 3:10 p.m. ET

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The No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0), who have college football's third-ranked scoring defense, take on the No. 7 Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0) and their second-ranked scoring defense on Saturday, October 21. The Buckeyes are 4.5-point favorites.

In their last action, the Buckeyes won versus the Purdue Boilermakers, 41-7. The Nittany Lions beat the UMass Minutemen, 63-0, in their last contest.

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between Penn State and Ohio State — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting analyst Geoff Schwartz. 

Related: 2023 College football odds: Sportsbooks see action on both Penn State, Ohio State

Ohio State vs. Penn State Game Information & Odds

• When: Saturday, October 21, 2023 at 12:00 PM ET
• Location: Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio
• TV: FOX
• Live boxscore on FOX Sports

Ohio State vs. Penn State Prediction

• Pick ATS: Ohio State (-4.5)  
• Pick OU: Over (45.5) 
• Prediction: Ohio State 26, Penn State 22

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Expert Geoff Schwartz

This game is an Under for me, with two teams that limit explosive plays on defense and one (Penn State) that can’t move the ball without dinking-and-dunking down the field. 

Ohio State’s defense is much improved. It is second in explosive play rate and very good on third down. It has yet to allow anyone to score more than 17 points. Penn State’s defense is second in points per drive and seventh in explosive play rate. 

Both of these teams thrive on defense. 

Offensively, Ohio State has shown flashes of excellence, surrounded by moments where it’s clear it has a first-year quarterback under center. Also, its usually solid-to-above-average offensive line is not playing as well this season. It is not good in short-yardage situations and allows too many pressures. Penn State’s defense matches up favorably with Ohio State.  

On the flip side, we have a Penn State pickleball offense. It is seventh in points per drive but 118th in explosive play rate. It needs to run a ton of plays to score and that gets tougher to do when you’re on the road with a new starting quarterback. Drew Allar has played well in his first season under center, but the Buckeyes are a whole different beast. It’s the biggest road game of the season and his first time in an environment like the ‘Shoe. 

We have seen this season that quarterbacks making their first road conference starts have struggled to produce. 

So I’m taking the Under here. I think it’s the right play for this game. 

PICK: Under 45.5 points scored by both teams combined

Ohio State vs. Penn State Betting Insights

• Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the tilt is Buckeyes 25, Nittany Lions 20.
• The Buckeyes have a 65.8% chance to claim victory in this game based on the moneyline's implied probability. The Nittany Lions hold a 38.6% implied probability.
• Ohio State has compiled a 3-2-1 ATS record so far this year.
• Penn State has won five games against the spread this year, failing to cover zero times.

Ohio State vs. Penn State: Head-to-Head

• Over their last two meetings, Ohio State has tallied two wins against Penn State.
• The Nittany Lions carry a 2-0 record ATS in those games, while the two teams have gone over the total on one occasion.
• In their last two head-to-head matchups, Ohio State has compiled 77 points versus Penn State, while allowing only 55 points.

Ohio State vs. Penn State: 2023 Stats Comparison

Ohio State 2023 Key Players

Penn State 2023 Key Players

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CFB - Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Ohio State Buckeyes - 10/21/2023

Geoff Schwartz