Alabama Crimson Tide

Oklahoma vs. Auburn: Standout Stat That Could Tip Sugar Bowl Outcome

Updated Mar. 5, 2020 1:09 a.m. ET

Fansided, Chip Rouse/FanSided via Stormin in Norman

In very simple terms, Oklahoma vs. Auburn on Jan. 2 in the Sugar Bowl shapes up as an offensive-defensive tug of war: Oklahoma’s prolific offense vs. Auburn’s hard-nosed, stingy defense.

Oklahoma averages 44.7 points per game, third most in the nation this season. The Sooners scored fewer than 40 points just twice all season. They lost both games – 33-23 against Houston and 45-24 vs. Ohio State. In OU’s 10 wins, the average score was 48.9 to 27.8.

Auburn allowed 12 opponents an average of 15.6 points per game, fifth best in the country. Top-ranked Alabama was the only team to score as many as 30 points against the Tiger defense in 2016.

When the Sooners score 40 or more points in the game, they are 103-1 in the Bob Stoops era.

Based on the numbers, you might be able to determine the final outcome of this year’s Sugar Bowl battle without having to wait till the end of the game. Neither team lost a game this season when leading after three quarters. Oklahoma was 10-0 in 2016 when it had the lead at the end of three quarters. Auburn was 6-0 under similar circumstances.

This game is not only going to be about Oklahoma’s ability to score. It’s also going to be about the Sooners’ ability to keep Auburn out of the end zone. OU is giving up almost 30 points a game this season, and Auburn is averaging 32.2.

When Oklahoma allows its opponent to score at least 25 points in a game, the Sooners are a very pedestrian 40-35 in 18 seasons under Stoops.

So watch the scoreboard in next Monday night’s Sugar Bowl. That could be a good predictor of how the Oklahoma-Auburn affair is going to turn out even before the clock runs out.