TCU Horned Frogs

Oklahoma vs. TCU: Rest of the Season for Sooners Begins in Ft. Worth

Published Jun. 30, 2017 6:28 p.m. ET

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Oklahoma vs. TCU could easily be a matchup of the best two teams in the Big 12 this season.

If not, it is certainly a contest between two teams that are closely matched. Even the Las Vegas oddsmakers are on board with that notion, originally calling the Saturday Big 12 showdown in Ft. Worth a “Pick’em” game.

The game with TCU was singled out even before the new season began as one of the biggest games in the Big 12 this season. Oklahoma’s two nonconference losses have diluted that advanced billing to some extent, but the outcome of the game still looms large in determining the eventual 2016 conference champion.

The Sooners, 1-2 on the season, enter the game against the 21st-ranked Horned Frogs out of the Associated Press Top 25 for the first time since the end of the 2014 season, despite beginning the 2016 campaign as the third-ranked team in the nation.

Sep 17, 2016; Norman, OK, USA; Oklahoma Sooners running back Joe Mixon (25) in action against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Oklahoma’s lone victory so far came against an easily overmatched Louisiana-Monroe team. That 59-17 win was sandwiched between a 10-point loss to Houston to open the season and a 45-24 knockout by then No. 4 Ohio State.

In the two losses this month, Bob Stoops’ Sooners did not come close to resembling the team most college football experts had raved about leading up to the start of the 2016 season.

Some are now saying that those high expectations have once again proved to be too much of a burden for Oklahoma to bear. That, of course, in reference to the fact that the last four times an Oklahoma team began the season ranked in the top five it ended the year ranked no higher than 15th and twice fell completely out of the rankings.

The Sooners have had a couple of weeks to try to right their listing ship and prepare to get back on course against a very good TCU team. OU is hoping to avoid falling victim to the so-called Rule of Three as it relates to losses at the start of a season. The rule says once is a potential aberration, twice could be a coincidence, but after the third such occurrence you can go to the bank on it.

A third loss in four games, regardless of the opponent or how high that team is ranked, would be a devastating blow by Oklahoma football standards to the Sooners’ 2016 season, once filled with extremely high expectations.

A couple of things working in the Sooners’ favor as they head down I-35 to Ft. Worth:

Not that that will make much difference in Saturday’s hoedown at TCU’s Amon G. Carter Stadium, but it is a positive hook for Sooner fans to hang their hopes on.

Oklahoma’s College Playoff hopes are all but gone, but the Sooners’ chances of winning the Big 12 are very much alive, and that will serve as their biggest motivation in the conference opener with fellow contender TCU. (See another game preview at FanSided’s national college football site.)

What to Know About TCU

Sep 23, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Kenny Hill (7) runs the ball against Southern Methodist Mustangs defensive back Kevin Johnson (12) in the second quarter at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

All-Big 12 quarterback Trevone Boykin is gone, but the Horned Frogs have seen little drop off offensively with Kenny Hill, his replacement at the signal-caller’s spot. Hill possesses a dual threat with his arm and his legs, the style of quarterback play that always seems to give Oklahoma fits defensively. Through four games, the TCU quarterback ranks fourth nationally and second in the Big 12 with 1,487 passing yards and a completion percentage of 66 percent. TCU’s 380 passing yards per game is the sixth best in the nation, and the Horned Frogs will be going against a Sooner pass defense that currently ranks 88th among FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision) schools.

The TCU offense is loaded with playmakers who can run, catch and advance the ball. Hill’s leading receiving target, Kyle Hicks, is also the Horned Frogs’ leading ground gainer, averaging six yards per carry and 78 yards per game. The Frogs are also getting outstanding production from wide receivers Taj Williams and John Diarse.

The TCU defense got off to a shaky start in the Horned Frogs’ first two games, yielding 41 points in a win over South Dakota State and 38 in a double-overtime loss to Arkansas and over 400 yards of offense in both games. In its last two outings, however, the Frogs seem to have found their footing defensively in back-to-back wins over Iowa State and SMU.

Defensive tackle Aaron Curry and linebacker Ty Summers will pose a huge challenge to the Oklahoma offensive line, which has had to make adjustments due to injury already this season. TCU has recorded 14 sacks through the first four games, and it will be going against an OU offensive front that has allowed 11 quarterback sacks, second most in the Big 12.

TCU will be without one of its biggest playmakers for the game with Oklahoma. Wide receiver and return specialist KaVontae Turpin is out indefinitely with an injured knee. Turpin had 126 receiving yards and 136 more yards in kick returns in the game this season against Arkansas.

What to Know About Oklahoma

With two weeks to prepare for TCU, you would expect to see sharper execution from the Sooners on both sides of the ball. But there are still big questions about whether the weaknesses that have been exposed in this Oklahoma team can remedied in time to save the Sooners’ season.

It will all be on the line on Saturday at TCU. On paper, the Sooners possess perhaps the best running attack in the Big 12 behind the straight-ahead power of Samaje Perine and the break-away speed of Joe Mixon. Oklahoma is averaging 178 rushing yards per game, but it is not getting out of its run game what the Sooners need to beat good teams, like the one they will face on Saturday. Mixon is averaging a whopping 8.4 yards per carry, and he is also Baker Mayfield’s third-best receiving target with seven catches and an average of 13.1 yards per reception.

Sep 17, 2016; Norman, OK, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Perine has not really gotten untracked, with 149 rushing yards in three games and defenses keying on him. The Sooners desperately need to get more from Perine moving into conference play.

Consistency has been the biggest problem plaguing the Sooners on offense. They moved the ball well against both Houston and Ohio State, but weren’t able to finish off drives and haven’t been successful converting on critical third downs (just 44 percent overall) that would have sustained potential scoring drives.

Mayfield is still the key to the Oklahoma offense. If he plays smart, gets rid of the ball quicker and is able to make plays (not necessarily big plays), the Sooners are a difficult offense to corral. They are capable of putting up points aplenty.

The Sooner quarterback needs to take advantage of OU’s depth at wide receiver by spreading the ball around and not allowing the TCU defense to key on just one or two receiving targets.

The biggest concern with the Sooners so far this season is their inability to prevent big plays in the passing game and get off the field on third down. The weak link in the secondary has proved to be the cornerback spot opposite All-Big 12 corner Jordan Thomas. That has been a huge problem in Oklahoma’s two losses, and you know that TCU is going to attack there as well on Saturday.

If the Sooners are going to have any chance to win at TCU – and not many sports pundits are on their side, despite being a 3.5-point favorite in Las Vegas – they have to be able to stop the TCU rushing attack, something they were not able to do against Ohio State, which put tremendous pressure on the back end of the Oklahoma defense.

Additionally the OU defense must put pressure on TCU’s Kenny Hill and not allow him to get comfortable and into a throwing rhythm or free to scramble outside of the pocket, where he is most dangerous. This is a tall order, but a must if the Sooners are to get back on the winning track. Hill can beat you in multiple ways, but he has also thrown four interceptions. Oklahoma must take away his options, force him into hurried, precarious throws and, most of all, take away his ability to make plays with his legs.

My prediction: I honestly believe we will see a different Oklahoma team against TCU than the one we saw in the Sooners’ two losses. First of all, when people start counting them out is when Oklahoma has played some of its best football under Bob Stoops. The OU coaches have said, and the Sooners players know better than anybody, this team is not playing up to its capability or talent level.

If Sooner fans need a rallying cry, think back to last season and how bad Oklahoma looked in losing to archrival Texas. The following week, the Sooners went to Manhattan, Kan., and totally manhandled Bill Snyder’s Kansas State team on their home turf by the humiliating count of 55-0.

I know that K-State team wasn’t nearly as talented as this TCU team is, but I believe the Sooners are coming to play on Saturday and will prevail at the end in another close game with the Horned Frogs. Oklahoma 35, TCU 31