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Orange, Cotton picks: Don't write off Clemson, but maybe pencil in 'Bama
Editor's note: Throughout the season, Stewart Mandel and Bruce Feldman have presented their weekly picks.
Below are their selections for the playoff semifinals (all times ET). Enjoy:
ORANGE BOWL: No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Oklahoma (1 p.m. Thursday, ESPN)
Clemson is the only playoff team to have finished the regular season undefeated, but will the top-ranked Tigers finally pick up a blemish on that perfect resume at the hands of Oklahoma?
The Sooners boast one of the most prolific offenses in the nation, and Bob Stoops' squad will have plenty of motivation after last year's 40-6 debacle vs. the Tigers in the Russell Athletic Bowl.
These are two different teams now. Who'll come out on top?
Mandel's prediction: This one's truly tough to call. I could see either or both Clemson's Deshaun Watson and Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield completely going off. And if it's Mayfield, Clemson might be in trouble, because Sooners tailbacks Semaje Perine and Joe Mixon figure to break big plays throughout the game as well.
But Oklahoma could be in for a rude surprise against Clemson's stout Top 10 defense. The Sooners simply did not face one anywhere near that caliber during the regular season. Premier pass-rusher Shaq Lawson will help keep Mayfield from getting out of the pocket and freelancing as he does so well, while the secondary gets a handle on his receivers. OU will still score points, but it will not run up and down the field.
The Sooners have a lot of playmakers on defense themselves, but Watson's dual-threat capabilities have vexed good defenses all season, including throwing for 420 yards on the No. 1 defense in the country (Boston College). He'll make Oklahoma pick its poison and may well make a lot of plays with his feet given the lockdown abilities of Sooner CBs Jordan Thomas and Zack Sanchez. But even if the Tigers' passing game stalls, RB Wayne Gallman is good for 100-plus yards himself.
-- Clemson 34, Oklahoma 28
Feldman's prediction: I picked Oklahoma to win this about a month ago when the matchups first came out, and I'm sticking with it. Having been down here in South Florida, I know some folks wonder whether the Sooners are coming in a bit cocky, and they say Clemson seems more focused. I'm not sure about that.
It also didn't help that the Tigers had to send home three players, including standout freshman Deon Cain, their second-leading receiver, for a reported failed drug test.
I just think the Sooners are the better team, and I like how they feed off QB Baker Mayfield's energy. This is a team with a lot of firepower, and it's a much different group, not just in scheme, from the one Clemson crushed last year in the Russell Athletic Bowl.
Clemson is the No. 1 team and undefeated, but I don't think the Tigesr faced as much tough competition as OU did.
-- Oklahoma 34, Clemson 31
COTTON BOWL: No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Michigan State (5 p.m. Thursday, ESPN)
No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Michigan State match up well because they share similar strengths and philosophies. Of course, the Tide have something the Spartans don't: a Heisman trophy-winning running back who spent most of the season wrecking the SEC.
But Michigan State clearly has the edge in quarterback play. Connor Cook has been superb for the Spartans, and the seasoned senior is no stranger to the big stage.
Prepare for an intriguing matchup on Thursday.
Mandel's prediction: Not only do both Alabama and Michigan State employ similar smashmouth philosophies, but both excel along the lines of scrimmage. These are arguably the two best defensive lines in the country, with All-Americans A’Shawn Robinson (Alabama) and Malik McDowell (Michigan State) swallowing up blockers and a host of athletic guys around them. The Spartans counter with a veteran offensive line led by arguably the nation’s best center, Jack Allen, and future NFL tackle Jack Conklin. The clash in the trenches will be fascinating.
Nobody’s been able to run the ball on Alabama all season, and I don’t expect that to change against a Michigan State rushing attack that’s got a future star in freshman LJ Scott but has not been consistent. The Spartans’ own defense, after struggling much of the year, became absolutely dominant over the final month, but it’s hard to imagine they’ll completely shut down Heisman winner Derrick Henry. A more modest goal is to avoid letting him break long runs, putting Alabama in second- and third-and-longs.
Michigan State’s best hope is to force a couple of deep turnovers to create short-field drives. But it’s hard to predict that ahead of time. If anything, I expect Alabama’s defensive front to pressure Connor Cook into a couple of uncharacteristic mistakes, maybe even a pick-six. Jake Coker won’t have a huge day himself, but freshman receiver Calvin Ridley is only getting better. He and Henry combine for enough chunk plays to pull away in the second half.
-- Alabama 27, Michigan State 16
Feldman: The best stat going in college football right now is Mark Dantonio’s 6-1 record against Top 5 opponents. That’s amazing, and I think this game will be tighter than Vegas thinks.
The Spartans match up well against Alabama. Michigan State is big, experienced and physical, especially on both lines. In fact, if it weren't for 'Bama, I think you could make a strong case that the Spartans have the best D-line in the country.
But the Tide are like 10-deep up front, and all of them are studs. Look for them to shut down the Michigan State ground game.
Connor Cook has played in a bunch of big games, and he's won many of them. He’s very talented. If he plays like a first-rounder, I think the Spartans win. But as good as I think Cook is, and as solid as Dantonio’s track record is against Top 5 teams, I just can’t pick against Nick Saban, that D-line and Heisman-winning running back Derrick Henry.
-- Alabama 23, Michigan State 20
