College Football

Oregon vs. Arizona State: Prediction, odds, picks

Published Nov. 16, 2023 11:12 a.m. ET

The Arizona State Sun Devils (3-7) are 23.5-point underdogs in a home Pac-12 matchup with the No. 6 Oregon Ducks (9-1) on Saturday, November 18 at Sun Devil Stadium on FOX.

The Ducks' last game was against the USC Trojans, and they won by a score of 36-27. Facing the UCLA Bruins in their most recent contest, the Sun Devils won 17-7.

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between Oregon and Arizona State — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting analyst Geoff Schwartz.

Oregon vs. Arizona State Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, November 18, 2023 at 4:00 PM ET
Location: Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, Arizona
TV: FOX
Live boxscore on FOX Sports

Oregon vs Arizona State Betting Information updated as of November 16, 2023, 5:47 AM ET.
Favorite	Spread (Odds)	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Moneyline	Under Moneyline
Oregon	-23.5 (-111)	-2809	+1190	55	-110	-110

Oregon vs. Arizona State Prediction

Pick ATS: Oregon (-23.5)
Pick OU: Under (55)
Prediction: Oregon 39, Arizona State 14

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz

This feels like an Under game in the desert for many reasons. First off, the Ducks are in a look-ahead spot, playing in a state where horrors happen in November. Oregon hosts Oregon State next weekend with plenty at stake.

Avenging a loss to the Beavers in the final Civil War contest before Oregon leaves for the Big Ten, plus a win, would get it one step closer to the playoffs. It is focused on Arizona State, but it would be naïve to believe the players don’t know what next weekend holds. Playing in Arizona in November as a ranked team has not been pleasant for my Ducks. A torn ACL for Dennis Dixon in Arizona ended a possible title game opportunity for Oregon in 2007.

A sixth-ranked Oregon team lost to the Sun Devils in this exact week in 2019, a game won by Arizona State true freshman QB Jayden Daniels (now at LSU). Things tend to go weird for the Ducks in this spot, which will affect scoring opportunities for a team that has scored more than 30 points in every game this season.

Plus, the Sun Devils defense is better than it gets credit for. It has allowed more than 27 points just twice this season by limiting explosive pass plays. It has only allowed 22 passing plays of more than 20 yards. Sun Devils coach Kenny Dillingham was the Oregon offensive coordinator last season, and he knows Ducks quarterback Bo Nix well. I expect them to have something ready for Oregon's offense.

Arizona State’s offense is in a bad way because of offensive line and quarterback injuries. That has not stopped the Sun Devils from being creative. Last weekend, the Sun Devils ran 18 reps of a swinging gate and other various plays with their tight end and running back playing quarterback.

Running Back Cameron Skattebo threw a touchdown out of the Wildcat formation last week, but the Sun Devils only scored 17 points. ASU scored three the previous week and seven at Washington just a month ago.

When the Sun Devils play against a decent defense, points are hard to come by. Oregon’s defense is 19th in points per drive and 28th in third down success rate. The pass rush recorded 26 pressures against USC on Saturday, and it feels that production can be matched this weekend.

I have the score at 31-10. Oregon wins, and it doesn’t cover, but gets out of Arizona healthy and ready for the Beavers.

PICK: Under 53.5 points scored by both teams combined

Oregon vs. Arizona State Betting Insights

Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the tilt is Ducks 39, Sun Devils 16.
The Ducks have a 96.6% chance to claim victory in this meeting per the moneyline's implied probability. The Sun Devils have a 7.8% implied probability.
Oregon has covered six times in nine chances against the spread this season.
Arizona State has put together a 5-3-1 record against the spread this year.

Oregon vs. Arizona State: 2023 Stats Comparison

	Oregon	Arizona State
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	46.3 (2)	17.7 (128)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	17.1 (12)	27.4 (76)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	4 (1)	16 (91)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	13 (72)	5 (131)

Oregon 2023 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Bo Nix	QB	3,135 YDS (77.7%) / 29 TD / 2 INT 121 RUSH YDS / 5 RUSH TD / 12.1 RUSH YPG
Mar'Keise Irving	RB	939 YDS / 10 TD / 93.9 YPG / 6.8 YPC 40 REC / 329 REC YDS / 1 REC TD / 32.9 REC YPG
Troy Franklin	WR	60 REC / 1,093 YDS / 11 TD / 109.3 YPG
Jordan James	RB	570 YDS / 9 TD / 57.0 YPG / 7.4 YPC 12 REC / 86 REC YDS / 1 REC TD / 8.6 REC YPG
Evan Williams	DB	58 TKL / 3.0 TFL / 4.5 SACK
Tysheem Johnson	DB	44 TKL / 2.0 TFL / 1.0 SACK / 2 INT
Brandon Dorlus	DE	20 TKL / 5.0 TFL / 5.0 SACK
Khyree Jackson	DB	25 TKL / 4.0 TFL / 2.0 SACK / 2 INT

Arizona State 2023 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Cameron Skattebo	RB	631 YDS / 8 TD / 63.1 YPG / 4.5 YPC 23 REC / 280 REC YDS / 1 REC TD / 28.0 REC YPG
Elijhah Badger	WR	58 REC / 649 YDS / 3 TD / 64.9 YPG
Trenton Bourguet	QB	1,344 YDS (62.1%) / 1 TD / 4 INT 54 RUSH YDS / 2 RUSH TD / 5.4 RUSH YPG
DeCarlos Brooks	RB	220 YDS / 3 TD / 22.0 YPG / 5.2 YPC
B.J. Green II	DL	32 TKL / 8.0 TFL / 6.0 SACK
Prince Dorbah	DL	24 TKL / 8.0 TFL / 6.0 SACK
Shamari Simmons	DB	40 TKL / 1.0 TFL / 1.0 SACK / 1 INT
Tate Romney	LB	36 TKL / 2.0 TFL / 1.0 SACK