College Football

Oregon vs. Colorado prediction, odds, picks

Updated Sep. 21, 2023 6:50 p.m. ET

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It'll be a Pac-12 conference party when the No. 10 Oregon Ducks (3-0) host the No. 19 Colorado Buffaloes (3-0) on Saturday at Autzen Stadium. 

Oregon is favored by 21 points, but that hasn't stopped bettors from backing the upstart Colorado Buffaloes in this weekend's matchup. 

Against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in their most recent game, the Ducks won 55-10. 

Facing the Colorado State Rams in their last contest, the Buffaloes won 43-35 in double overtime.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the game between Colorado and Oregon from the point spread, moneyline, total over/under and an expert pick from Geoff Schwartz. 

Oregon vs. Colorado Game Information & Odds

• When: Saturday, Sept. 23, 2023 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon
• TV: ABC
• Live boxscore on FOX Sports

Oregon vs. Colorado Prediction

• Pick ATS: Colorado (+21) 
• Pick OU: Under (70.5)
• Prediction: Oregon 40, Colorado 30

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz

Colorado is 3-0, surprising the college football world with its early-season success. That success is going to end this weekend in Eugene, as the Buffs head to Oregon to face the Ducks. 

Oregon has advantages all over the field, including in the trenches. That is ultimately going to provide the difference in this game.

Colorado’s offensive success through three games has propelled quarterback Shedeur Sanders into the Heisman conversation. Sanders has completed 78% of his pass attempts for 1,251 yards and has become the entire Colorado offense, because the Buffs cannot run the football. 

Colorado’s rushing offense is 127th in success rate and its offensive line is 119th in pressure rate. The Buffaloes' offensive line against Oregon’s defensive line is a huge advantage for the Ducks. As a Ducks fan, I’d be very upset if our defensive line did not dominate this game. 

Oregon’s passing defense is ranked 19th in efficiency and 16th in adjusted air yards per attempt. Colorado will be the biggest test for the Ducks, but without Travis Hunter, it has one less passing option for Sanders. 

Colorado’s defense has not played particularly well this season, and without its best player (Hunter), the Oregon offense should have its way. Oregon's offense ranks second in efficiency and first in points per drive. And as someone who has watched every snap of their three games, I don’t think the Ducks' offense has operated at its peak yet. 

There have been plenty of missed opportunities and some poorly blocked run plays. Colorado’s defense is 102nd in overall success and 89th in points per drive. It is allowing five yards per rush (107th). Unless the Ducks turn the ball over, that team will not be stopped by the Buffs' defense.

Twenty-one points is a large number to cover in any game, but I believe it’s the right play here. Oregon is a powerhouse at home, losing only two conference games since 2018. Under Dan Lanning, the Ducks have routinely played well against teams that can’t compete with them at home. 

I’m taking the Ducks to cover here.

PICK: Oregon (-21) to win by more than 21 points

Oregon vs. Colorado Betting Insights

• Per the spread and Over/Under, the implied score for the matchup is Ducks 46, Buffaloes 25.
• The Ducks have a 91.3% chance to collect the win in this meeting per the moneyline's implied probability. The Buffaloes have a 13.6% implied probability.
• Oregon has covered twice in two games with a spread this season.
• Colorado has a record of 2-1-0 against the spread this year.

Oregon vs. Colorado: Head-to-Head

• Over their last two meetings, Oregon has totaled two wins against Colorado.
• In their last two matchups, each team has covered one time, with those games outpacing the total on one occasion.
• Colorado has been outscored by 62 points in its last two tilts versus Oregon.

Oregon vs. Colorado: 2023 Stats Comparison

Oregon 2023 Key Players

Colorado 2023 Key Players

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CFB - Colorado Buffaloes vs. Oregon Ducks - 09/23/2023

Geoff Schwartz