College Football

Oregon vs. North Carolina best bet, odds and how to bet

Published Dec. 27, 2022 1:51 p.m. ET

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The Oregon Ducks and the North Carolina Tar Heels will face off in San Diego's Holiday Bowl to cap off their 2022 college football seasons.

After their Week 1 loss to Georgia, the Ducks went on an eight-game winning streak. The Ducks then lost two of their last three matchups, finished the season 9-3 and failed to reach the Pac-12 title game.

The Tar Heels won their first three games of the season before falling to Notre Dame 45-32. After that loss, UNC won six straight but then lost its last three games of the season, including a 39-10 defeat to Clemson in the ACC Championship game. The Heels finished the year 9-4.

Which team gets the redemption win in the Holiday Bowl — the Ducks or the Heels?

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the game between Oregon and UNC, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet).

Read RJ Young's full list of 2022-23 bowl game predictions and odds

No. 15 Oregon vs. North Carolina (8 p.m. ET Wednesday, Dec. 28, FOX and FOX Sports app)

Point spread: Oregon -14.5 (Oregon favored to win by more than 14.5 points, otherwise North Carolina covers)
Moneyline: Oregon -556 favorite to win (bet $10 to win $11.80 total); North Carolina +375 underdog to win (bet $10 to win $47.50 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 74.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

The Holiday bowl has always felt like the bowl game that officially kicks off the bulk of the bowl season. It’s often the first game featuring ranked Power Five conference teams, although this season North Carolina is an unranked, nine-win win team after losing to Clemson in the ACC title game. Oregon arrives in San Diego with nine wins, too, and an awful loss to rival Oregon State to end the regular season. Both teams are looking to end the season on a high note with a victory in this game. 

The bright spots for both these squads are their offenses. Oregon’s offense is excellent through the air and on the ground. Quarterback Bo Nix completed 71% of his passes for 3,389 yards, with 27 touchdowns to six interceptions. He added 504 rushing yards with 14 touchdowns via his feet. Those numbers include playing the final two games of the season with a bum leg. He’s healthy now and ready to roll. The Oregon rushing attack is fantastic and has one of the best offensive lines in the country. The Ducks rank first in rushing success rate, and they have allowed the least amount of sacks in the country. 

Holiday Bowl Preview: Will No. 15 Oregon step up against North Carolina?

FOX Sports' lead college football analyst Joel Klatt previews the Holiday Bowl between the No. 15 Oregon Ducks and the North Carolina Tar Heels.

North Carolina’s offense is ranked 20th in points per drive, but the Tar Heels are led primarily by their quarterback Drake Maye. Maye threw for 4,115 yards and was the team's leading rusher by nearly 150 yards. The Tar Heels' offensive line was not good, and Maye had to make magic to get anything done. The best Tar Heel receiver this season was Josh Downs. He racked up more than a thousand yards receiving, but Downs is not playing on Wednesday night. Maye will need to find another target to help the squad score.

The defenses for these two teams have some things in common, too. Neither one is any good. And both are without their best players. The Ducks' defense is 102nd in points per drive and will be without their top corner, linebacker and defensive end. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels' defense ranks 112th in points per drive, and they are missing their top three secondary players. It’s easy to see this game going Over with the Tar Heels covering the 14.5-point spread. 

However, I’m not quite sure of the motivation for this Tar Heel team. They’ve lost three straight while only scoring 18 points per game. They are traveling across the country to a stadium that will be packed with mostly Oregon fans in San Diego. The Ducks want this game badly after blowing their last game against the Beavers. Bo Nix is healthy and has announced his return for 2023. 

Yes, Oregon is without their offensive coordinator who is now the head coach at Arizona State, but they know how to run the ball and use the air attack against this Tar Heel’s defense. 

I’m taking the Ducks to score over 44.5 points in this game. 

PICK: Oregon team total Over 44.5 points scored at FOX Bet

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CFB - Holiday Bowl - 12/29/2022

Geoff Schwartz